ATL: IKE Discussion

[jinftl]

At 4pm CDT Ike at 27.7N 93.5W....prior position at 1pm was 27.4N 93.1W

Almost NW....

[txwatcher91]

105mph at this station in the SE eyewall.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42361

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

I'm not liking his presentation. I think he placed the center park way too far NW within the "moat" area in the center of the storm. I also don't see his basis for a more east landfall whatsoever.

Recon shows lowest pressure right on the southern edge of the eye you see on the radar.

[Frank P]

Galveston has been in the path for a long time. Many warnings were went out to expect 20+ feet of surge

They've actually been in "the path" for many many years... They're just now going to find out what that means in real life.

How is it that their response isn't/wasn't completely exercised, chewed up, spit out, tried again, and ironed out until it was perfect, perfect, perfect? I mean, if ANY CITY ought to have it together in terms of pre-, during, and post-landfall, one would think Galveston would be the one... Just sayin'

Would not be surprised to see at least 50% (If not more) of the homes on the island completely destroyed... if Ike hits to just to the west of Galveston island... the landscape of the island could be historically changed, and for a very long time if this all comes to fruition.. .... very disturbing

[cycloneye]

[bigjohn]

The idea of a shelter of last resort is the last thing I want to hear in a storm surge prone area.

Ask the Katrina evacuees who went to the Superdome about shelters of last resort.

[txwatcher91]

109 kts at the surface.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=CDT

[Ptarmigan]

The radar has limited range so, what we see of Ike is limited at best.

[Sanibel]

105mph at this station in the SE eyewall.

Heavy convection band rains are probably bringing the winds to the surface. Edit: 300 foot mast reading.

[micktooth]

Any thoughts about the city of Houston telling people to shelter in place? Life without electricity for days or weeks is miserable. As a Katrina survivor, I hope they remember to clean out their refrigerators.

[RL3AO]

109 kts at the surface.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=CDT

Thats on an oil rig 300+ feet over the surface

[Mesohunter]

I'm glad my family evacuated to Austin, they live in Galveston near Moody Gardens, the island's also my old home-I'm glad the seawall is helping but I think with full moon + tide + this surge it can only do so much

[pojo]

Kind of curious why they just flew around in circles a few times way NW of the storm... *ponders* They aren't having equipment problems are they? (that's if Pojo is around to answer and not on the plane )

I was on the plane... it was for timing

Uh.. that's so cool! ... I'd never have the nerve. I'm a wuss! So neat to sit here and think... Pojo might of just did that drop (I often did today as the dropsondes came in ya know!) How does it feel to have us recon addicts waiting on pins and needles for you to do your thing? *Winks*

P.S. If I was willing to send you 50 bucks to take a marker and write Pebbles says "More Recon Baby" on a dropsonde and email me a picture of it and which drop number it was ... would ya? This is just hypothetical of course! My hubby would never understand why I wanted $50

it's painful because of operational security... but since one of our wx officers wrote the decoding software we are all rolling our eyes at every little question on why we alter our track.

[gubyw1]

105mph at this station in the SE eyewall.

Heavy convection band rains are probably bringing the winds to the surface. Shows the value of the category 1 talk before on winds.

That station is damaged. The wind, pressure, and other data have been the same for the last 2 hrs. 91.4 kts was the last report. I'm surprised it survived this long.

[tolakram]

This is not a forecast. Dashed lines represent interpolation of movement.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on Smrf of 100 knots and the 109 knot oil rig. I'm pretty sure we are dealing with a storm of at least 110 mph if not 115 mph. I don't understand why the nhc kepted it at 105 mph.

[jasons2k]

The idea of a shelter of last resort is the last thing I want to hear in a storm surge prone area.

Ask the Katrina evacuees who went to the Superdome about shelters of last resort.

My friend from Galveston says the "shelter" AKA Ball High School, it not on high ground and as he said "that area floods all the time" Great.

[Derek Ortt]

because there was no SFMR of 100KT, Matt

[Cape Verde]

Any thoughts about the city of Houston telling people to shelter in place? Life without electricity for days or weeks is miserable. As a Katrina survivor, I hope they remember to clean out their refrigerators.

Well, they can do what I'm doing. Sheltering in place and hoping for the best tonight. If power is off tomorrow, patch up the place as best you can, then head out of town to a city with power.