ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

Slowly that curve continues to flatten out...I wonder if it will begin to invert itself sooner or later...

A couple of things that concern me:

1.) The models continue on insisting this will be a strong cyclone...
2.) The curve on the forecast track HAS continued to flatten out...
3.) Standard "rule of thumb" thinking would tell us that this will turn North at some point
4.) This one is just for Gatorcane!!! Climatology tells us that this should go poleward, ie. a more normal track towards FLA from the east...

BTW, Just got my power back from Gustav's outer reaches knocking it out up here on the Treasure Coast!

SFT

[Trader Ron]

SFT.

Even if the curve does flatten out, Hanna might see track south of Fl.

[sfwx]

This is what I truly love about weather. Even the experts are scratching their heads or throwing darts!!

From NHC Disc:

THEREAFTER...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF HANNA WILL THEN PROVIDE THE
DOMINANT STEERING FLOW. THIS SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A
WESTWARD AND THEN AN EVEN SLOWER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. I TRIED
VERY HARD NOT TO FORECAST THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TURN SINCE THIS IS NOT
A VERY COMMON TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK BUT RELIABLE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE HAS FORCED ME TO DO SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
PRACTICALLY ON TOP OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. I ALWAYS WONDERED HOW
TODAY'S SOPHISTICATED DYNAMICAL MODELS WOULD HAVE FORECAST
HURRICANE BETSY BACK IN 1965. THIS HURRICANE MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE BAHAMAS.

FORECASTER AVILA



From Melbourne AFD:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...

...SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM HANNA WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FROM THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

...ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT THRU AT LEAST THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

...EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO T.S. HANNA...



SUN-TUE...PGRAD SHOULD CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN BTWN LARGE ERN CONUS SFC
HIGH TO THE NORTH AND TC`S GUSTAV...PROGGED FOR TUE LANDFALL ALONG
THE CTRL GULF COAST...AND HANNA...APPROACHING THE BAHAMAS BY THAT
TIME DEPENDING ON STRENGTH/POSN OF HANNA BY TUE...PGRAD COULD BE
EVEN TIGHTER ACROSS THE SERN CWA. HOWEVER...PROSPECTS FOR NRLY SHEAR
STARTING TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE...FROM A COMBINATION OF GUSTAV`S
OUTFLOW AND NRLY FLOW BTWN THE LARGE ERN CONUS HIGH AND DEEP LYR WRN
ATLC CUTOFF STILL LOOK FAIRLY HIGH BY THEN. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR SCT POPS...BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY AND
CONVGT BDRYS DUE TO THE BRISKNESS OF THE EASTERLIES. HENCE...HAVE
KEPT GENERAL PREMISE OF PREV FCST WITH SCT NIGHTTIME/MORNING SHRA
AND SCT AFTN SHRA/ISOLD TS THRU THE PD. TEMPS WILL RUN A BIT BELOW
CLIMO.

WED-SAT...HANNA FCST TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WED/THU...AND
BEYOND THEN IT`S REALLY ANYONE`S GUESS. LATEST 00Z ECM SCRAPES THE
WEST COAST OF FL THU/FRI...WHILE THE GFS DOES LIKEWISE ALONG THE
EAST COAST. CYCLONE SHOULD STILL BE EXPERIENCING SOME SHEAR WED...
BUT BEYOND THEN...WE`RE REALLY THROWING DARTS AS TO WHAT KIND OF
SHAPE HANNA WILL BE IN. EVENTUALLY THE CYCLONE SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD
SOMEWHERE NEARBY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH ERODES THE WRN PORTION OF THE
STRONG ERN CONUS-WRN ATLC RIDGE. WILL KEEP GENERAL STATUS QUO THRU
THU...BREEZY TO WINDY WITH SCT SHRA/ISOLD TS...THEN A GRADUAL SHIFT
TO LIGHTER SRLY FLOW AND A MORE NORMAL REGIME OF SCT SHRA/TS BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

SUFFICE IT TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FCST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK IS LOW.


$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI

[cycloneye]

WE`RE REALLY THROWING DARTS AS TO WHAT KIND OF
SHAPE HANNA WILL BE IN.

Those who dont know this,those words above were written in the Melbourne NWS office by one of our pro mets,AJC (Tony Cristaldi).

[TampaFl]

Have you seen the Euro run? This would be like a one - two punch to South Florida (like Frances & Jeanne).
I guess the second storm is 97L? Thoughts & comments welcomed.


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005070800!!!step/

[DESTRUCTION5]

Have you seen the Euro run? This would be like a one - two punch to South Florida (like Frances & Jeanne).
I guess the second storm is 97L? Thoughts & comments welcomed.


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005070800!!!step/

Well that was unpleasant..

[Blown Away]

WE`RE REALLY THROWING DARTS AS TO WHAT KIND OF
SHAPE HANNA WILL BE IN.

Those who dont know this,those words above were written in the Melbourne NWS office by one of our pro mets,AJC (Tony Cristaldi).

That's awesome I use NWS Melbourne all the time, not just for canes. I like his forecasts, he always gives a personal touch w/ his written forecasts. Thanks for telling us that. Nice to put a name with an avatar.

[sfwx]

WE`RE REALLY THROWING DARTS AS TO WHAT KIND OF
SHAPE HANNA WILL BE IN.

Those who dont know this,those words above were written in the Melbourne NWS office by one of our pro mets,AJC (Tony Cristaldi).

I was one who didn't know that! Cool. I enjoy reading hs posts on here.

Eric

[deltadog03]

Looks like ULL is starting to fill....IF that happens hanna could be off to the races, until she gets sheared some more down the road.

[Cyclenall]

THEREAFTER...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF HANNA WILL THEN PROVIDE THE
DOMINANT STEERING FLOW. THIS SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A
WESTWARD AND THEN AN EVEN SLOWER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. I TRIED
VERY HARD NOT TO FORECAST THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TURN SINCE THIS IS NOT
A VERY COMMON TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK BUT RELIABLE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE HAS FORCED ME TO DO SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
PRACTICALLY ON TOP OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. I ALWAYS WONDERED HOW
TODAY'S SOPHISTICATED DYNAMICAL MODELS WOULD HAVE FORECAST
HURRICANE BETSY BACK IN 1965. THIS HURRICANE MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE BAHAMAS.

This is very intresting, usually forecast discussions don't drift off like that. It's also personal with the "I always wondered" part.

[hwwtdw]

[quote="TampaFl"]Have you seen the Euro run? This would be like a one - two punch to South Florida (like Frances & Jeanne).
I guess the second storm is 97L? Thoughts & comments welcomed.


[url]http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005070800!!!step/[/url][/quote]


If that were to play out, 2 storms hitting South Florida and eventually ending up along the gulf coast spread out on the heels of Gustav.....

A) Gas will be over $6.
B) Insurance will cost 2 arms, 2 legs and 1 major internal organ.
C) Everyone from Texas to the Florida - Georgia Border will require some major meds and staightjackets.
D) Oh and evryone on Storm2K will have bloody finger tips and need glasses.

A people I disagree with Fantasyland. woo hoo. LOL.

[Blown Away]

Looks like ULL is starting to fill....IF that happens hanna could be off to the races, until she gets sheared some more down the road.

First look at visible this morning, I sure did notice the ULL almost gone. Seeing Hanna suck in moisture from Gustav's outflow is really cool to see.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

[weatherwindow]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0 per the nws/mia afd..."the nhc is forecasting her to be over the central bahamas by wed evening. the long range models then continue to move hanna to the west into the florida straits and then into the southeast gulf by next weekend. therefore the forecast for south fla will all depend on the location of tropical storm hanna"......they seem to be buying into the consistent euro and the latest gfs ensemble...rich

[Sihara]

WE`RE REALLY THROWING DARTS AS TO WHAT KIND OF
SHAPE HANNA WILL BE IN.

Those who dont know this,those words above were written in the Melbourne NWS office by one of our pro mets,AJC (Tony Cristaldi).

I didn't know that! Thanks for posting, Cycloneye. Oddly, a couple of times, I guess something atmospheric was going on, I've heard the Melbourne noaa station way over here on gulf coast. So I guess those were his words.

[fci]

WE`RE REALLY THROWING DARTS AS TO WHAT KIND OF
SHAPE HANNA WILL BE IN.

Those who dont know this,those words above were written in the Melbourne NWS office by one of our pro mets,AJC (Tony Cristaldi).

Though my "home" NWS is not Melbourne; I read their AFD since it is usually so detailed and a great read telling me much more than my local office does and explanations of why they are writing what they are.

Go AJC!!

[skufful]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productviewnation.php?pil=MFLAFDMFL&version=0 per the nws/mia afd..."the nhc is forecasting her to be over the central bahamas by wed evening. the long range models then continue to move hanna to the west into the florida straits and then into the southeast gulf by next weekend. therefore the forecast for south fla will all depend on the location of tropical storm hanna"......they seem to be buying into the consistent euro and the latest gfs ensemble...rich

Doesn't the latest GFS take Hanna up the EC of Florida?

[fci]

Have you seen the Euro run? This would be like a one - two punch to South Florida (like Frances & Jeanne).
I guess the second storm is 97L? Thoughts & comments welcomed.


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2005070800!!!step/

That would be a nightmare.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like ULL is starting to fill....IF that happens hanna could be off to the races, until she gets sheared some more down the road.

what are you telling your parents today?

[WhirlWind]

First look at visible this morning, I sure did notice the ULL almost gone. Seeing Hanna suck in moisture from Gustav's outflow is really cool to see.


Thanks for posting this, you are right Hanna taking the moisture from Gustav's flow is really cool to see. Again thanks
WhirlWind

[weatherwindow]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productviewnation.php?pil=MFLAFDMFL&version=0 per the nws/mia afd..."the nhc is forecasting her to be over the central bahamas by wed evening. the long range models then continue to move hanna to the west into the florida straits and then into the southeast gulf by next weekend. therefore the forecast for south fla will all depend on the location of tropical storm hanna"......they seem to be buying into the consistent euro and the latest gfs ensemble...rich

Doesn't the latest GFS take Hanna up the EC of Florida?

..was referring to the gfs ensemble mean, however if the gfs continues to trend east and the ensemble follows suit, perhaps they will give that solution more weight...just guessing that the euro is currently in the drivers seat..imho