ATL: IKE Discussion

[Air Force Met]

The problem is though, the GFS has this far too weak and it does not properly respond to the deep layer ridge. That's why I totally chucked the GFS

But Derek...if the GFS had it stronger...it would respond even more to the break. The ridging is forecast to be stronger in the lower levels than in the mid and upper levels (by the GFS.)

The issue in not whether or not the GFS has a strong or weak system. It really doesn't matter. The issue is whether or not the break will be where it is forecasting it to be. The fact that the GFS is pulling Ike into that break...as weak as it is...shows how big a break it is forecasting.

For the record: I think the break is too big and too far east.

I concede the weakness. My concern is though that it will be farther west before it feels that weakness. That seems to be what the strong solutions are indicating (HWRF, GFDL, CMC, NOGAPS)

I agree with that. I think close to a Floyd track.

BTW...I think this is a Cat 4...or close to it.

[Rainband]

But the nam also seems to be on track with hanna????? So is it that wrong?

[Jevo]

yeah looks like the Mets in florida already saw the new Ike models..

http://www.ebaumsworld.com/video/watch/877993/

[Just Joshing You]

The problem is though, the GFS has this far too weak and it does not properly respond to the deep layer ridge. That's why I totally chucked the GFS

But Derek...if the GFS had it stronger...it would respond even more to the break. The ridging is forecast to be stronger in the lower levels than in the mid and upper levels (by the GFS.)

The issue in not whether or not the GFS has a strong or weak system. It really doesn't matter. The issue is whether or not the break will be where it is forecasting it to be. The fact that the GFS is pulling Ike into that break...as weak as it is...shows how big a break it is forecasting.

For the record: I think the break is too big and too far east.

I concede the weakness. My concern is though that it will be farther west before it feels that weakness. That seems to be what the strong solutions are indicating (HWRF, GFDL, CMC, NOGAPS)

I agree with that. I think close to a Floyd track.

BTW...I think this is a Cat 4...or close to it.[/quote]

By Close, does that mean it could be Cat 5 with 140 KT winds? It would still technically be close to Cat 4.

[Rainband]

I don't want anything to do with this storm but sounding the all clear for florida is premature. I like the trend in the models but fay showed us how accurate the models can be. point being I am going to watch this storm closely no matter what anyone says till it's not a threat. i have vacation coming in three weeks, no storms allowed.

[Air Force Met]

By Close, does that mean it could be Cat 5 with 140 KT winds? It would still technically be close to Cat 4.

No. Top end cat 3 or just barely a 4 (like "barely" means something).

[Just Joshing You]

By Close, does that mean it could be Cat 5 with 140 KT winds? It would still technically be close to Cat 4.

No. Top end cat 3 or just barely a 4 (like "barely" means something).

It was a joke I was Just Joshin' You

[cheezyWXguy]

yeah looks like the Mets in florida already saw the new Ike models..

http://www.ebaumsworld.com/video/watch/877993/

bookmarked.

[RL3AO]

Not surprised the NHC went with 115kt.

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't want anything to do with this storm but sounding the all clear for florida is premature. I like the trend in the models but fay showed us how accurate the models can be. point being I am going to watch this storm closely no matter what anyone says till it's not a threat. i have vacation coming in three weeks, no storms allowed.

It is no where near an all clear for Florida. We are 5 days, and thousands of miles away from what is now a 135 MPH hurricane. No way are we in the clear.

[x-y-no]

Cat 4 in 11pm advisory!

[gatorcane]

Ike now at 135mph.

[wxman57]

03Z NHC track had day 4 point exactly the same (22.5N/72W) and day 4 point nudged right from 23.5N/76W to 24N/75.5W. Slower and a slight nudge right as expected.

Bed time!

[gatorcane]

03Z NHC track had day 4 point exactly the same (22.5N/72W) and day 4 point nudged right from 23.5N/76W to 24N/75.5W. Slower and a slight nudge right as expected.

Bed time!

yep no surprise with this track...

[Air Force Met]

03Z NHC track had day 4 point exactly the same (22.5N/72W) and day 4 point nudged right from 23.5N/76W to 24N/75.5W. Slower and a slight nudge right as expected.

Bed time!

Yep...that was very predictable.

[gatorcane]

I'm becoming more confident that AFM is right...they may just keep nudging it north each advisory until finally Florida is in the clear...

and the NHC is mentioning how the GFS and UKMET are NE of the Bahamas....interesting.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

If this was asked and answered on a previous page sorry for asking again but Derek is saying a stronger storm will go west and I thought with it was the oppisite that it would go north. Is the direction based on each individual storm and the current conditions?

Every storm is different. They each have their own environmental conditions, steering, shear, etc. The "stronger storms head north" is based on the coriolis effect. In this storm there is a HUGE high pressure north blocking that motion.

[cycloneye]

[Evil Jeremy]

Again, we are 5+ days out, so it is to early to say if Florida is out and safe. So much can change from now till next week.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I'm becoming more confident that AFM is right...they may just keep nudging it north each advisory until finally Florida is in the clear...

and the NHC is mentioning how the GFS and UKMET are NE of the Bahamas....interesting.

They will nudge it where the model consensus goes...