ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[GreenSky]

Yep well south of the 12z GFS, in northern Cuba...just like the UKMO and the ECM, I think its pretty obvious the main risk is now shunted down to Cuba.

At least for the time being, South Florida is in the clear.

Castro though might have to do some planning this weekend

[Weatherfreak000]

108 Hours seems to feel the weakness? Not sure yet..

[Steve H.]

Well, I was telling most of the locals here that this will go well south, through the Florida straits and into the GOM. Now I am not so sure. We're getting into the second week of September now, and the overall synoptics can change quickly. It was always my theory that if you're in the target zone at 5 days, its not going to hit you. But in this situation where the Florida peninsula is not in the target zone, I get nervous, and believe that the models will shift to the right again. Since Ike is, and has been going to the WSW for some time today, when he rounds the ridge 4 /5 days from now it could be into the weakness around Florida. I hope not, cause I don't want to go through all we had to do in 2004,,,, a nightmare. But I can't discount the possibility of IKE getting awfully close to the peninsula at day 4.

[HURAKAN]

Members and guests, please follow the forecasts of the NHC, NWS, and the orders of your local authorities. NO ONE IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE CLEAR.

[Weatherfreak000]

Latest GFS is no recurver...and the evidence continues to pile...


Another track shift may be in order at 10.

[KWT]

Yep, need to see whgat the GFDL and HWRF do but I think the next advisory may show the line actually right on the Cuban coast.

Ike stalls out right over the loop current...never a good thing!

[miamijaaz]

Some of you need to pay attention to Hurakan's message.

[Evil Jeremy]

Yep well south of the 12z GFS, in northern Cuba...just like the UKMO and the ECM, I think its pretty obvious the main risk is now shunted down to Cuba.

At least for the time being, South Florida is in the clear.

Castro though might have to do some planning this weekend

We are not in the clear. We will be in the clear when we are out of the 5 and soon to be 3 day cone.

[thetruesms]

Is anyone else concerned with the fact that the GFS sends Ike on N/NNE blips at 24, 66, 120, and 132 hours? It's like it shuts the ridge off for 6-12 hours, then turns it back on full strength, which isn't realistic at all.

[Bgator]

The 06z GFS was like this one, and then switched back to the north at 12z, and now is back. So if the 00z GFS is south like this one, ill put more weight on it.

[BOPPA]

Green Sky - I don't do too much posting, but do you have
ANY idea what your comment (below) does. It could give
that one person or family that was going to prepare for this
storm the idea that they DON'T have to..... I know you are saying "for the time being" - but please have sensibility for
those of us who are wondering when and what to do - not
to stop their preparations. As far as I can tell right now,
and from our local stations and NHC - "our" part of Florida
it NOT in the clear yet. The entire cone should be concerned.




At least for the time being, South Florida is in the clear.

Castro though might have to do some planning this weekend

[tpr1967]

18Z gfs watch out fl big bend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

check tampa.

[KWT]

18z GFS really isn't a great run at all, hits Cuba along the northern coasts, stalls over the loop current then goes NE towards NW Florida...

[tpr1967]

This is a crazy run. Don't know if it's believable.

[Brent]

18z GFS really isn't a great run at all, hits Cuba along the northern coasts, stalls over the loop current then goes NE towards NW Florida...

Tampa Bay actually.

[jhpigott]

when does the next GDFL and HMRF start running??

[jinftl]

Were any of the models with a south and sw shift also the ones that showed hanna moving sw into haiti during some of the runs a week ago? Any potential bias towards a sw movement?

[mph101]

18z GFS really isn't a great run at all, hits Cuba along the northern coasts, stalls over the loop current then goes NE towards NW Florida...

Then moves it back into the Atlantic and ramps Ike up off the coast of SC as it rakes the coast from the Carolinas into New England as a major storm.

[artist]

Yep well south of the 12z GFS, in northern Cuba...just like the UKMO and the ECM, I think its pretty obvious the main risk is now shunted down to Cuba.

At least for the time being, South Florida is in the clear.

Castro though might have to do some planning this weekend

what do you have to back that up? Have you seen s Fl leave the cone? I didn't think so. This throwing out statements such as this gives this site a bad name because when they don't come true, then people see it as unreliable. We are still talking almost 5 days out and if you have followed hurricanes at all you also know that things can change drastically in that time. If you were to state reasons why you think it might head south other than a few model runs, then that might give some credence to such a statement. Have you alos forgotten there is Hanna out there that became somewhat stronger than predicted at this point as well as came a little closer to the peninsula than first thought. Could that produce a weakness for Ike to get through? Otherwise it is just blowing steam to get a rise. Please stop. It is easy to spout when you are not one of the targets at this point in time.

[Brent]

when does the next GDFL and HMRF start running??

Both should be out in the next hour.

About the GFS, not sure I buy the Gulf and beyond track(the stall and then shooting ENE to Tampa?). I can buy the Cuba scrape though(since others show that).