ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[funster]

Now it looks like Daytona Beach could get stuck with hours and hours of heavy rain.

[jinftl]

Is there anything that woud induce a due West or even WSW in the next few days? It looks like even if Fay is steered by the building ridge, the orientation of Fay compared to the ridge would still result in a more WNW movement.

Fay is already at 28.8N. She has gained latitude since last night...about 1 degree. If she gains only a little more latitude and then gets steered by the ridge, she seems unlikely to visit water again.

New Orleans is at 30N. Even a due west movement now would not give Fay that wide of an expanse of the Gulf.

Given her fickle nature, nothing can be ruled out for sure...but a lowered level of threat is a step in the right direction...the 'trend is our friend'. Plus, I wouldn't want to see Fay ever got over Lake Ponchartain. She seems to like large lakes.

[BigA]

Minimum extrap pressure of 993.4 at 28.90N 80.30W Definitely deepening somewhat.

[JonathanBelles]

Fay is making herself known here. Wind have picked up and rain is finally on its way.

[paintplaye]

Looks like the storm could be making a west movement now.

[cpdaman]

Minimum extrap pressure of 993.4 at 28.90N 80.30W Definitely deepening somewhat.

wrapping a lil tighter on radar as well (east and northsides in last half hour) will rotate around and reduce the size of that 'center'

[SoupBone]

Looks like the storm could be making a west movement now.

I don't see it. Could you post a link?

[cpdaman]

Looks like the storm could be making a west movement now.

recon does not support that, i think what you are seeing is the east side of the center consolidating on radar, and this should occur next on the north, then west and south sides

[BigA]

Recon shows a bit of an drift with north and eastward component, but eventually it will turn back NW, but I doubt it will just adjust course and move due west; rather, it will slowly bend leftward.

[JonathanBelles]

Looks like the eye is becoming less ragged to be with little or no movement.

[RL3AO]

UZNT13 KNHC 202233
XXAA 70220 99294 70799 08099 99001 26020 10552 00007 26020 10551
92691 21208 ///// 85423 18600 ///// 88999 77999
31313 09608 82218
61616 AF303 2406A FAY OB 12
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2940N07998W 2220 AEV 00000 DLM WND 10556 00198
8 WL150 10556 075 =
XXBB 70228 99294 70799 08099 00001 26020 11921 21008 22850 18600
33843 16400
21212 00001 10552 11996 10557 22988 10558 33843 12557
31313 09608 82218
61616 AF303 2406A FAY OB 12
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 2940N07998W 2220 AEV 00000 DLM WND 10556 00198
8 WL150 10556 075 =


52 kt at surface from dropsonde.

[cpdaman]

feeder bands working down the west central coast of florida , probably 40 mph gusts at least on the beach in these

time to bump her winds back up

[BigA]

So maximum sustained winds are at minimum 60mph. It's intensifying. This storm has been incredibly vexing.

[jaxfladude]

So maximum sustained winds are at minimum 60mph. It's intensifying. This storm has been incredibly vexing.

Oh................................................................Shut................................................................Up!

[Sabanic]

So maximum sustained winds are at minimum 60mph. It's intensifying. This storm has been incredibly vexing.

This is one tough perplexing lady.

[CrazyC83]

50 kt seems right, although if more data comes in with continued strengthening a case could be made for 55 kt. The SFMR numbers seem bogus and I would discount them at this point.

[jinftl]

If you say the pressure is down to 977mb we know you must be CBS4 Miami Weatherman Dave Bernard reliving his shameful night on Monday!

So maximum sustained winds are at minimum 60mph. It's intensifying. This storm has been incredibly vexing.

[webke]

I have a question, when I look at the water vapor loop the ridge to the north is being pushed east at an angle by the low pressure west of Fay, can this make Fay take a more northernly track.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/loop-wv.html

[LowndesCoFire]

So maximum sustained winds are at minimum 60mph. It's intensifying. This storm has been incredibly vexing.

Oh................................................................Shut................................................................Up!

Here we go again...and again......

[KWT]

The dropsonde does support 50kts, I think given thats a direct measurement the NHC probably will have to up this to 50kts soon.