ATL: IKE Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#11521 Postby dhweather » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:20 pm

bighaben wrote:Sorry if this is a stupid question:

But when is the next update from the hurricane center?


That's not a stupid question! 6PM central - 7PM at the latest. Ed Rappaport from the NHC indicated they were going to the two hour interval updates.
Last edited by dhweather on Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4312
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#11522 Postby jinftl » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:20 pm

5pm CDT conditions

HOUSTON BUSH N23 (N17 at 4pm)
HOUSTON HOBBY N31G40 (N25G32 at 4pm)
PORT ARTHUR NE25G41 (NE28G37 at 4pm)
GALVESTON NOT AVBL

N.O. INTL ARPT SE24G43
N.O. LAKEFRONT SE31G47
HOUMA E28G44
LAKE CHARLES E21G35
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#11523 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:21 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:
Category 5 wrote:This certainly isn't going to be the big one, but it will be bad enough.

I disagree... I would argue that there can be more than one "big one."

I COMPLETELY agree with the last portion.

OT: Radar indicates movement is closer to west after the NW wobble...



There is no question in my mind that IKE is going to be bad, but I feel that the "Big one" would be the size of Ike on the track shown by the nhc, but would be a borderline cat5 hurricane. When I'm talking about big one=worst case. This would have both massive surge and the winds.

I hope everyone makes it through this storm...I hate death and hate seeing it. I could not say it any more strongly...
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re:

#11524 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:21 pm

DanKellFla wrote:Just another example of how every storm is different. "Just" a Cat 2. But the windfield is huge and has plenty of time in the gulf to create a big surge.


I always say that every storm is different and that's what people don't seem to get. Many are saying that they have stayed because they survived Alicia but Ike is completely different than Alicia. More deadly in my opinion.
0 likes   

bighaben
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 32
Age: 36
Joined: Sat Aug 30, 2008 1:48 am
Location: The Woodlands, Texas

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#11525 Postby bighaben » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:22 pm

dhweather wrote:
bighaben wrote:Sorry if this is a stupid question:

But when is the next update from the hurricane center?


That's not a stupid question! 6PM central - 7PM at the latest. Ed Rappaport from the NHC indicated they were going to the two hour interval updates.


Thank you very much!

I'm eager to see what's changed as I'm in the track of the storm, well inland, but just not enough.

I've already been bashed enough by this storm through my job (grocery store) and am not looking forward to tonight. This thing looks to organized now for me to be as complacent as I was looking at it yesterday, anyone think this may turn into a 3?
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145625
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#11526 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:23 pm

WTNT54 KNHC 122157
TCEAT4
HURRICANE IKE TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...RE-TRANMISTTED FOR CORRECTED LONGITUDE

AT 5 PM CDT...2200Z...THE CENTER OF LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS
ESTIMATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE
93.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON
TEXAS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

0 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7185
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: Re:

#11527 Postby jlauderdal » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:23 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:
dhweather wrote:Ed Rappaport just said they are now starting to do the two hour updates


This is because (you probably know, just making sure others do) the entire eye is now visible on radar.


From NHC:
Intermediate public advisories may be issued every 3 hours when coastal watches or warnings are in effect, and every 2 hours when coastal watches or warnings are in effect and land-based radars have identified a reliable storm center.
0 likes   

User avatar
Janie2006
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1329
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 3:28 pm
Location: coastal Ms aka home of the hurricanes

#11528 Postby Janie2006 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:24 pm

Galveston: Winds NNE 41 mph, gusts at 50 mph
0 likes   

rtd2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1183
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 12:45 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#11529 Postby rtd2 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:25 pm

bighaben wrote:
dhweather wrote:
bighaben wrote:Sorry if this is a stupid question:

But when is the next update from the hurricane center?


That's not a stupid question! 6PM central - 7PM at the latest. Ed Rappaport from the NHC indicated they were going to the two hour interval updates.


Thank you very much!

I'm eager to see what's changed as I'm in the track of the storm, well inland, but just not enough.

I've already been bashed enough by this storm through my job (grocery store) and am not looking forward to tonight. This thing looks to organized now for me to be as complacent as I was looking at it yesterday, anyone think this may turn into a 3?




At this point it making a cat3 wouldnt matter much its going to be bad enough especially in regards to the surge
0 likes   

User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#11530 Postby dhweather » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:25 pm

bighaben wrote:
dhweather wrote:
bighaben wrote:Sorry if this is a stupid question:

But when is the next update from the hurricane center?


That's not a stupid question! 6PM central - 7PM at the latest. Ed Rappaport from the NHC indicated they were going to the two hour interval updates.


Thank you very much!

I'm eager to see what's changed as I'm in the track of the storm, well inland, but just not enough.

I've already been bashed enough by this storm through my job (grocery store) and am not looking forward to tonight. This thing looks to organized now for me to be as complacent as I was looking at it yesterday, anyone think this may turn into a 3?


You are certainly welcome - please don't ever feel that a question is stupid. Not one person here knows it all about tropical systems and we help educate each other.

It might make it to a 3 - the eye is getting better organized as I type this. God be with those in the path, he's their only hope.
0 likes   

User avatar
Weatherfreak14
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC
Contact:

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#11531 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:26 pm

Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9792
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re:

#11532 Postby artist » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:26 pm

TSmith274 wrote:While during Katrina, it bothered me to hear outsiders question our "leaders", it quickly became clear to me that the rest of the country was right... and I was wrong. Thankfully, we learned from our mistakes and pulled off the most successful and smooth evacuation in history. But I just need to say that I cannot believe the same mistakes are being made. Galveston's mayor does look like an elderly deer caught in the headlights... she seems clueless. And to add to that frustration, you have Texas' governor saying that he is satisfied and very proud of the evacuation... that nowhere else in the world could pull off this wonderful evacuation that left probably 30,000 people at ground zero. Good job Gov... you're clueless too.


Why is the governor resposible for people deciding to stay? Are you advocating they be forceably removed? What ever happened to personal responsibility?
0 likes   

User avatar
funster
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 817
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2007 4:27 pm
Location: North Dallas

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#11533 Postby funster » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:26 pm

Jijenji wrote:Wow. Ike is really tightening up now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-jsl.html


transformed into a perfect donut
0 likes   

CYCLONE MIKE
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2183
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 6:04 pm
Location: Gonzales, LA

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#11534 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:27 pm

Category 5 wrote:
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Don't know if this has been asked today or not. But why is the NHC and others having such a hard time forecasting intensity of these gulf storms this year. Not complaining at all, but with Gustav, Edouard, Fay, and now Ike they were preaching about cat 4 sometimes even cat 5 coming through the gulf. Upon landfall they have been a lot weaker then predicted. Are the conditions just not as favorable as thinking, water temps lower than normal, shear, dry air, etc. etc???? Just trying to figure out what is going in the gulf this year. For instance over here in SE LA we only got about 1 inch of rain since midnight. Forecast was for 3-4 with higher isolated amounts through today. Winds have only been in low 30's tops, now almost dead calm. That is way less than what we usually receive from a hurricane making landfall just to the west of us(rain wise)


Intensity forecasts aren't really an exact science.


I am well aware of this and know in all their discussions they (NHC) admit predicting strength is hard and changes all the time, but seems in past seasons the intensity forecasts have been a little closer in regards to actual strength when a storm is in the gulf.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#11535 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:27 pm

Image
0 likes   

jinftl
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4312
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:47 pm
Location: fort lauderdale, fl

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#11536 Postby jinftl » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:27 pm

First power outages....# without power by county

GALVESTON (TX) 6272
JEFFERSON (TX) 4141
ORANGE (TX) 730
CHAMBERS (TX) 105


http://entergy-texas.com/outages/tx.aspx
0 likes   

attallaman

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#11537 Postby attallaman » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:28 pm

Sorry to bother you but my internet just came back on after being down for four hours, my cable TV is still out, what's the latest on Ike? Has Ike started moving inland yet? Has the hurricane strengthened or has it lost some of it's strength?
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL IKE: Category 2 - Discussion

#11538 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:29 pm

bighaben wrote:Sorry if this is a stupid question:

But when is the next update from the hurricane center?


About 30 minutes from now.
0 likes   

rtd2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1183
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 12:45 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

Re: Re:

#11539 Postby rtd2 » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:30 pm

artist wrote:
TSmith274 wrote:While during Katrina, it bothered me to hear outsiders question our "leaders", it quickly became clear to me that the rest of the country was right... and I was wrong. Thankfully, we learned from our mistakes and pulled off the most successful and smooth evacuation in history. But I just need to say that I cannot believe the same mistakes are being made. Galveston's mayor does look like an elderly deer caught in the headlights... she seems clueless. And to add to that frustration, you have Texas' governor saying that he is satisfied and very proud of the evacuation... that nowhere else in the world could pull off this wonderful evacuation that left probably 30,000 people at ground zero. Good job Gov... you're clueless too.


Why is the governor resposible for people deciding to stay? Are you advocating they be forceably removed? What ever happened to personal responsibility?





amen... only those in jail, in the hospital or otherwise NOT able to get themself out(elderly,nursing home hadicapp,ect) is the responsibility of the govt. Even a MADATORY evacuation cant force me or you out but its up to us as ADULTS to take shelter!
Last edited by rtd2 on Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9623
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

#11540 Postby Steve » Fri Sep 12, 2008 5:30 pm

>>I always say that every storm is different...

They are. Absolutely.
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 158 guests