ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[cycloneye]

NHC is still very interested in this system:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 15 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-045

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA...(LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE...TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 16/1545Z
D. 13.5N 56.0W
E. 16/1700Z TO 16/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO...TEAL 71
A. 17/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 02AAA CYCLONE
C. 17/0400Z
D. 14.0N 60.0W
E. 17/0500Z TO 17/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12 HRLY FIXES AT 17/1800Z
IF THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED.

[bob rulz]

I really don't think we should all be so quick to write off this system. I mean, I'm not an expert by any means, but if this thing still formed it would hardly be the biggest curveball the tropics have ever thrown us.

Absolutely, but right now it's got some major work to do. And yes we've seen much stranger things.

True, the elements are quickly turning against it. But to all the people who have already lost interest in this system I'm just reminding them that the threat isn't over yet.

[gatorcane]

Thanks for the update Luis. The "hype" has cooled on this board but the NHC continues to show alot of interest in this system. Clearly they are seeing something we must not be.

[weatherguru18]

It's never over until the lady in the pant suits says it is. And as far as using superlatives, I'd be careful. The biggest curveball the tropics have ever thown us?? That's a bold statement.

[bob rulz]

It's never over until the lady in the pant suits says it is. And as far as using superlatives, I'd be careful. The biggest curveball the tropics have ever thown us?? That's a bold statement.

I said it WOULDN'T be the biggest curveball they've ever thrown us.

[gatorcane]

Convection on the increase big time. This is the convection I expected to happen about 6 hours ago but is finally starting to pop...

It's hard to ignore a Low pressure area in this part of the Atlantic with some decent convection around it. ULL winds are still favorable for development also but do become only marginally favorable in about 48 hours...

Still there is definitely room for this thing to become a depression before then.

[weatherguru18]

It's never over until the lady in the pant suits says it is. And as far as using superlatives, I'd be careful. The biggest curveball the tropics have ever thown us?? That's a bold statement.

I said it WOULDN'T be the biggest curveball they've ever thrown us.

Whoops...blame it on the alcohol. Had a blast last night at karaoke. Just got home! LOL.

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Slightly more convection is doting the system right now compared to 9am sat pic...

[Extremeweatherguy]

[cycloneye]

It's never over until the lady in the pant suits says it is. And as far as using superlatives, I'd be careful. The biggest curveball the tropics have ever thown us?? That's a bold statement.

I said it WOULDN'T be the biggest curveball they've ever thrown us.

Whoops...blame it on the alcohol. Had a blast last night at karaoke. Just got home! LOL.

What does alll of this has to do with discussing in an informative way 94L?

[HURAKAN]

Maybe not the biggest curveball, but after the huge success the computer models had on Bertha, this would be a huge collapse if it doesn't develop.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Convection is on the West end of the nearly linear center, it'll have to do better than that.


In my unscientific opinion, with many more significant figures than such a SWAG could justify, a 71.3487% chance the flight gets stood down tomorrow.

[Derek Ortt]

Maybe not the biggest curveball, but after the huge success the computer models had on Bertha, this would be a huge collapse if it doesn't develop.

not really... only for GFDL and HWRF. The other models had this pegged well... nothing or a tropical low. A tropical low did form

[gatorcane]

Maybe not the biggest curveball, but after the huge success the computer models had on Bertha, this would be a huge collapse if it doesn't develop.

not really... only for GFDL and HWRF. The other models had this pegged well... nothing or a tropical low. A tropical low did form

Bingo Derek. It's not like all of the models had this thing bombing out into a major hurricane. Tropical low and possible depression yes...

In that respect models nailed this thing again.

[HURAKAN]

[gatorcane]

Looks to be just south of (missing) the strong wind shear as shown by wind shear tendency analysis. So 94L has a good ULL environment to work with.

[Sanibel]

Previously in late June and early July the CV belt was sending ghost waves with good curvature across only to disappear when they hit west Atlantic hostility. The key to 94L is the "arrow" point shape to the west edge which shows 94L is pushing into a weather border that is inhibiting development. I guess 94L is the low CV ice breaker for 2008 and a touch too early. That is why it is teetering on both formation and dissipating under unfavorable synoptics. It could be the last "ghost wave" or the first wave to beat conditions. 94L is weak and small but still has a small inflow to the south and weak red IR.

[Ivanhater]

Well this certainly has more convection than yesterday when it had about 2 light rainshowers with it ..With some good convection in and around the now elongated low, this could try to form today...I will check on it after class today..I hate taking summer classes!

[Derek Ortt]

one problem with formation today... the circulation is just not of the intensity that it was yesterday.

This things has always had one thing going against it

[gatorcane]

one problem with formation today... the circulation is just not of the intensity that it was yesterday.

This things has always had one thing going against it

Derek very true I was thinking the same thing. Today it has the convection but lacking the circulation that it had yesterday. Yesterday it had the circulation but was missing the convection.

I do think its gradually organizing today and we could see a depression form today or tomorrow as the NHC is suggesting.