Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[boca]

On earlier runs the GFS had a spurious low develop in the NE Gulf by this weekend caused by the trough, would that cause the east bias of the models besides trying to initialize a center that hasn't made it to the surface yet.

[artist]

can anyone tell me when the models actually show this to become a ts?

[Ed Mahmoud]

BAM models are seeing the current synoptic setup and not understanding that there is a good future chance of the ridging in the ATL and the ridging in the Southern Plains of eventually "hooking up" and causing a totally different scenario for this storm. I personally believe this storm (as weak or strong as it may wind up) will end up effecting both FL and the Upper Gulf Coast (anywhere from Corpus to Tampa) depending on the multiple possibilities of ridge building currently feasible. All the models see a building ridge of some sort but some just think this storm will sneak through it, I personally can't see how that's going to happen now (considering the location of the developing LLC.)

Opinions are only mine and should not be construed as professional forecast or advice.

IIRC, BAM models use GFS mean steering at different levels, so one could almost derive one's own BAM results from deep, medium and shallow steering, similar to product from CIMMS, if one used GFS composite steering at different levels at small enough time increments, and advanced position of storm by appropriate amount over that time interval. If GFS run is perfect, and storm doesn't change strength significantly, such that it goes from, say, deep to medium steering, or shallow to deep steering, such that that the steering changes for a storm during the model's time domain, the BAMs should be perfect.


Since the GFS forecast mean steering at different levels is rarely perfect, and storms change intensity, the BAMs won't be perfect. However, BAM deep, medium and shallow showing similar tracks indicates GFS sees nearly aligned wind flow over a deep layer, indicating vertical shear is minimal.

If I understand correctly.

[NEXRAD]

can anyone tell me when the models actually show this to become a ts?

The 18Z GFDL builds it to a tropical storm overnight (based on the wind output alone), but doesn't really show the system tightening up until around Sunday morning, near Eastern Cuba. The 18Z HWRF takes the system to a defined TS early tomorrow. The NAM, which has been pretty bullish with storm development this season, doesn't close off the system better until around Saturday.

- Jay

[artist]

thanks Jay! So that helps explain why they have not found a close depression yet, right? So sitting here all night is not going to change a thing! lol

[NEXRAD]

thanks Jay! So that helps explain why they have not found a close depression yet, right? So sitting here all night is not going to change a thing! lol

The system really isn't as organized as it looks at first satellite glance. I'm not sure that the lack of model consistency with development point necessarily suggests why no storm has been named, but I really don't see one on satellite or radar just yet. It's very interesting that most of the models have persisted in developing 92L over the Bahamas (or south of the Bahamas) rather than near Puerto Rico.

- Jay

[waterbaby609]

This is my first post. I'm a Jersey girl and since relo to Fl this is going to be my 3rd episode. I don't remember the names of all the storms (blessed amnesia) but I do remember hovering in the bathroom (the only room in my house without windows) during the back end of Wilma feeling the shakes of the building. I am petrified by this one. I know there are experts out there and I know we have to wait to see what she does, but aside from the weather channel can anyone give me their views?

[ROCK]

This is my first post. I'm a Jersey girl and since relo to Fl this is going to be my 3rd episode. I don't remember the names of all the storms (blessed amnesia) but I do remember hovering in the bathroom (the only room in my house without windows) during the back end of Wilma feeling the shakes of the building. I am petrified by this one. I know there are experts out there and I know we have to wait to see what she does, but aside from the weather channel can anyone give me their views?

Welcome to 2K and your 1st post....Listen to the METS and you wont go wrong ( most of the time).... They have posted some good stuff back a few pages.

[tolakram]

edit: woops, wrong thread. I'm not sleepy.

Loop:

http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi ... 0&smooth=0

Look at the radar imagery in motion now.

Please excuse my crude drawings but this is what I see. Storms near NE PR moving south, but those other storms in the islands steady or starting to drift N.



I placed a circle where I think the center might be close to. Maybe.

[SouthFLTropics]

This is my first post. I'm a Jersey girl and since relo to Fl this is going to be my 3rd episode. I don't remember the names of all the storms (blessed amnesia) but I do remember hovering in the bathroom (the only room in my house without windows) during the back end of Wilma feeling the shakes of the building. I am petrified by this one. I know there are experts out there and I know we have to wait to see what she does, but aside from the weather channel can anyone give me their views?

Welcome aboard waterbaby...

I am a native Floridian and can say with great certainty that the only thing right now that we really know is that we don't know. I can also say with great certainty that you are on the best place on the web to get all the insight you will need to know what is going on and dare I say make informed decisions. Storm2k is a great place and there are alot of great people here.

That being said, if you did not prepare and get supplies at the beginning of the season right now would be a good time to do so...even if you don't need them this time around. Feel free to post more questions and once again welcome aboard.

SouthFLTropics

[Dean4Storms]

Whats up with the TWO at 11pm?

If there is no closed LLC, there is no closed LLC!

[tolakram]

This year the TWO's are issues at 8 and 2, AM and PM. It's crap.

[NEXRAD]

Tolakram,

The storm area you indicate as moving north is not doing so. The appearance is caused by cell propagation; the storm cells there are moving slowly, and perhaps a bit towards the south, while new activity fills-in north of the older cells. This coincides well with the rapidly cooling cloud-tops visible on infrared satellite imagery.

- Jay

[tolakram]

Thanks Jay.

That loop is a mess, you would think that something would be evident at this point.

- Mark

[blp]

thanks Jay! So that helps explain why they have not found a close depression yet, right? So sitting here all night is not going to change a thing! lol

The system really isn't as organized as it looks at first satellite glance. I'm not sure that the lack of model consistency with development point necessarily suggests why no storm has been named, but I really don't see one on satellite or radar just yet. It's very interesting that most of the models have persisted in developing 92L over the Bahamas (or south of the Bahamas) rather than near Puerto Rico.

- Jay

Just an amatuer observation, but could it be possible that the models start showing development in the Bahamas because that is when the system will slow down some as it reaches a weaker point in the Ridge. Seems like that might be the place were this can finally stack itself instead of over PR were the LLC is trying to outpace the MLC.

[NEXRAD]

Blp,

The models might not develop 92L until it reaches the Bahamas region for the stacking potential, as you've explained, or it might be because of possible influences from future interaction with Hispaniola.

- Jay

[ROCK]

0z GFS rolling in....

looks like they initialized the center fairly well.....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[x-y-no]

So far a similar GFS run - scraping the north side of Hispaniola at 36 hours

[blp]

Blp,

The models might not develop 92L until it reaches the Bahamas region for the stacking potential, as you've explained, or it might be because of possible influences from future interaction with Hispaniola.

- Jay

Thanks I agree that possible land interaction can also be a factor. It will be interesting tomorrow to see its evolution, it is going to be awfully close to DR.

[x-y-no]

0Zgfs at 48 hours

a little slower with the storm than the 18z run, and the trough is progressed a little more east ... it may miss the connection this run