ATL: IKE Discussion

[artist]

03Z NHC track had day 4 point exactly the same (22.5N/72W) and day 4 point nudged right from 23.5N/76W to 24N/75.5W. Slower and a slight nudge right as expected.

Bed time!

Yep...that was very predictable.

question for you or any of the mets here (and thanks for answering our questions)

What was the setup that drove Andrew into s Florida?

[CourierPR]

I'm becoming more confident that AFM is right...they may just keep nudging it north each advisory until finally Florida is in the clear...

The models might also swing back west. The certainty of some of the statements made tonight is astounding with regard to Ike's future track.

[CrazyC83]

How strong will Ike get I wonder?

[Jevo]

You do have to admire the NHC's "Path of least regret" methodology. It is to put everyone at a heightened sense of awareness.. as we have already seen from our SC/NC friends this evening. I do agree it is a very responsible thing to do especially with a storm as dangers as Ike is at this time.

A senior hurricane specialist that I will not name for obvious reasons said something to me that I found very amusing during the '07 FLGHC "Any model guidance 4+ days out is like throwing darts blind-folded" Sure you know which direction it is going, but its accuracy leaves something to be desired. He followed up with "Why do you think we are sticking with the 3 day cone and publishing the 5 day as experimental"

It is always in the discussion language as well.. Such as tonight

THE
LINGERING QUESTION THAT REMAINS AT THE LONGER RANGE IS WHEN IKE
WILL MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE
MODEL SPREAD REMAINS QUITE LARGE AT DAYS 4 AND 5

I would like to see them put up a G-IV and start sampeling the upper levels tomorrow... As they intended I think that everyone from the GOM to Ne needs to pay attention

[Air Force Met]

question for you or any of the mets here (and thanks for answering our questions)

What was the setup that drove Andrew into s Florida?

A 596 DM high was sitting off the coasts of NC/VA and ridging into SC/GA...and into the NE GoM.

I should have stated...a 596DM high at 500MB.

[Windtalker1]

03Z NHC track had day 4 point exactly the same (22.5N/72W) and day 4 point nudged right from 23.5N/76W to 24N/75.5W. Slower and a slight nudge right as expected.

Bed time!

Yep...that was very predictable.

question for you or any of the mets here (and thanks for answering our questions)

What was the setup that drove Andrew into s Florida?

An upper low east of Bermuda steered Andrew more to the north and weakened the
system. On the 21st, the southern extent of the upper trough pinched off into a new
upper low to Andrew's southwest, creating a much more favorable upper level
environment. This development, in combination with a surface high near the southeast
coast of the United States, turned Andrew more to the west and rapid strengthening
ensued. In 42 hours, Andrew had strengthen from essentially a strong tropical wave
northeast of the Caribbean to a major hurricane as it continued to barrel westward
towards Florida.

(sorry I'm not a Met)

[wxman57]

I'm becoming more confident that AFM is right...they may just keep nudging it north each advisory until finally Florida is in the clear...

The models might also swing back west. The certainty of some of the statements made tonight is astounding with regard to Ike's future track.

Yes, models could trend back west. Who is certain of Ike's track? I haven't seen any such statements. Seeing trends in model guidance is not a statement of certainty in a track, it's simply an observation.

[artist]

thanks AirForce met and windtalker for your answers.

[cpdaman]

I'm becoming more confident that AFM is right...they may just keep nudging it north each advisory until finally Florida is in the clear...

The models might also swing back west. The certainty of some of the statements made tonight is astounding with regard to Ike's future track.

Yes, models could trend back west. Who is certain of Ike's track? I haven't seen any such statements. Seeing trends in model guidance is not a statement of certainty in a track, it's simply an observation.

wxman not to pester you

but i heard you mention the carolina's for ike in the hanna thread

i very much respect your insights track wise

i was not sure if you were saying they need to watch it or wether you are confident it will go there

[tolakram]

[Windtalker1]

thanks AirForce met and windtalker for your answers.

Your welcome. Found the answer on Google

[Vortex]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1947_Fort_ ... _Hurricane

[Air Force Met]

I'm becoming more confident that AFM is right...they may just keep nudging it north each advisory until finally Florida is in the clear...

The models might also swing back west. The certainty of some of the statements made tonight is astounding with regard to Ike's future track.

Can you point to any posts which stated "this will" do this...or "this will not" hit here or there?

I haven't seen them. I haven't seen any "certain" statements...just observations (as Chris said) on what it looks like now.

More confident does not mean certain. I don't think anyone is that foolish when it comes to tracks and hurricanes.

[Jevo]

I'm becoming more confident that AFM is right...they may just keep nudging it north each advisory until finally Florida is in the clear...

The models might also swing back west. The certainty of some of the statements made tonight is astounding with regard to Ike's future track.

Can you point to any posts which stated "this will" do this...or "this will not" hit here or there?

I haven't seen them. I haven't seen any "certain" statements...just observations (as Chris said) on what it looks like now.

More confident does not mean certain. I don't think anyone is that foolish when it comes to tracks and hurricanes.

Here's some spaghetti for ya


Also looks like Gonzo (The G4) is going up today... that may get some better info for Ike's model runs as well
FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 05/0000Z
B. NOAA9 1008A HANNA
C. 04/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

[Air Force Met]

thanks AirForce met and windtalker for your answers.

Your welcome. Found the answer on Google

Was forecasting Andrew from Ft Hood, TX. So...remembered

Worked 54 hrs straight. I was younger then.

[Ptarmigan]

Wow! Ike is now a Category 4 hurricane. I am not surprised about it.

[foladar]

question .. when would recon go into Ike? not too familar with that aspect. and when would next models be done?

[CrazyC83]

Wow! Ike is not a Category 4 hurricane. I am not surprised about it.

Not a Category 4 - what do you think it is? Category 5?

[BigA]

Any idea on how much the shear will knock this thing down during the next three days?

[Bocadude85]

so it seems i will be safe here..... thats good news was starting to get nervous