ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[mattpetre]

Is that a trough I see developing from the tail of Hanna in the GOM? If it does develop strongly where it winds up going could effect Ike's path. I would guess that it may tuck under the high over TX currently and actually cause more westward motion in the long term, but it also could just follow Hanna and keep the opening there longer for Ike to head through FL.

[gtsmith]

Latest GFS is no recurver...and the evidence continues to pile...


Another track shift may be in order at 10.

a forecast is not evidence...

[Nimbus]

Is that a trough I see developing from the tail of Hanna in the GOM?

That is the ULL that the forecasters have been mentioning which was west of Hanna. Looks to be elongating into a TUTT.This ULL had been rolling west at a pretty good clip keeping pace with Ike. Tonight it looks like it might set up as a TUTT over the mid gulf but its too early to recognize for sure.

Three of the models including the NOGAPS and GFS are turning Ike NNW up the west coast of Florida at a steep angle. If the models are responding to a future stationary TUTT it would be bad news for WC Florida. (I live west of Tampa so am probably projecting my concern)

Looking up at the gulf coast near NOLA it appears there may already be some upper air divergence starting that would argue against a stationary TUTT forming.

I'm curious what AFM and Wxman57 will see tonight.

[gatorcane]

Is that a trough I see developing from the tail of Hanna in the GOM? If it does develop strongly where it winds up going could effect Ike's path. I would guess that it may tuck under the high over TX currently and actually cause more westward motion in the long term, but it also could just follow Hanna and keep the opening there longer for Ike to head through FL.

Hanna creating a path for Ike is what I was thinking...but supposedly models build back in the ridge between the GOM high and Bermuda high fairly quickly.

[Nimbus]

The HWRF model currently seems to be best match for the ridge Axis if the ridge does not move much further west. Things will evolve some more in a few days.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z GFDL Aims at LA...

[KWT]

GFDL totally rakes Cuba from one end to the other pretty much, bet Ike would barely come out of that sort of track as a hurricane, though it does breifly seem to enter the Caribbean waters.

I still think its rather over egging the cake with regards to the WSW motion and how long it lasts but that would be a big let off for Florida...

[Sihara]

Three of the models including the NOGAPS and GFS are turning Ike NNW up the west coast of Florida at a steep angle. If the models are responding to a future stationary TUTT it would be bad news for WC Florida. (I live west of Tampa so am probably projecting my concern)

So do I (west of the bay) - and I sure felt a bit sick when I saw the new cone this evening after work.

Given the WSW motion, what are the chances Ike gets too far south to be pulled upward into a ridge?

[Weatherboy1]

just out of curiosity -- what about the expanding outflow to the north. the past couple hours, the "squished" pattern of the northern half of Ike has reverted to a more traditional-looking cloud shield. Also, he appears to be jogging due west. Maybe it's nothing, but the change in the cloud shield could signal the end of the WSW motion. Just my two cents. Not sure what the implications would be for the models if that ridge is a bit weaker, but that is what is catching my eye this evening.

[Weatherfreak000]

18Z GFDL Aims at LA...

WHAT? Link?

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z GFDL Aims at LA...

WHAT? Link?

0 23.0 63.4 255./14.0
6 22.7 64.8 257./13.5
12 22.3 66.3 256./14.1
18 21.9 67.8 256./13.9
24 21.6 69.3 259./15.1
30 21.0 70.5 243./12.5
36 20.6 71.7 250./11.9
42 20.4 72.8 260./10.5
48 20.2 74.0 262./11.4
54 20.0 75.1 257./10.2
60 20.1 76.3 275./12.1
66 20.4 77.6 285./11.9
72 20.6 78.7 278./11.1
78 21.0 79.7 294./ 9.8
84 21.5 80.8 291./11.0
90 22.0 81.6 302./ 9.6
96 22.6 82.5 306./10.0
102 23.3 83.3 309./10.6
108 23.7 84.1 295./ 7.8
114 24.3 84.8 314./ 9.2
120 24.8 85.5 308./ 7.9
126 25.4 86.0 316./ 7.0

[jinftl]

Here is a discussion from last friday for hanna, when she was forecast to head southwest towards haiti in an area very near where ike is today....i realize this is a different storm, patterns change, but is there any potential connection between the models that said sw for hanna and the same models pushing ike into cuba?

THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
MOTION. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWARD TURN..SOUTH OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...THE SHARPNESS OF THE TURN
AND SPEED OF MOTION VARIES GREATLY. THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...MAINLY DUE TO
THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL MOTION. THIS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 21.3N 62.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 22.2N 64.5W 50 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 23.6N 66.7W 55 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 24.6N 68.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 31/1200Z 25.1N 70.1W 70 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 24.7N 71.6W 65 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 24.0N 72.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 03/1200Z 23.0N 73.5W 60 KT

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL crosses Cuba into NW Caribbean,and then tracks to central GOM.

WHXX04 KWBC 052330
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 23.0 63.4 255./14.0
6 22.7 64.8 257./13.5
12 22.3 66.3 256./14.1
18 21.9 67.8 256./13.9
24 21.6 69.3 259./15.1
30 21.0 70.5 243./12.5
36 20.6 71.7 250./11.9
42 20.4 72.8 260./10.5
48 20.2 74.0 262./11.4
54 20.0 75.1 257./10.2
60 20.1 76.3 275./12.1
66 20.4 77.6 285./11.9
72 20.6 78.7 278./11.1
78 21.0 79.7 294./ 9.8
84 21.5 80.8 291./11.0
90 22.0 81.6 302./ 9.6
96 22.6 82.5 306./10.0
102 23.3 83.3 309./10.6
108 23.7 84.1 295./ 7.8
114 24.3 84.8 314./ 9.2
120 24.8 85.5 308./ 7.9
126 25.4 86.0 316./ 7.0

[chris_fit]

That's a pretty big shift in the GFDL...

What and when is the next model coming out?

[jinftl]

do you really think ike will get to 20N? This track will be easy enough to verify as early as tomorrow....keep an eye on the latitude

That's a pretty big shift in the GFDL...

What and when is the next model coming out?

[KWT]

Pretty mad looking track from the GFDL, would relaly get hurt over eastern Cuba, gets maybe just enough time to do some re-organising in the Caribbean before hitting Cuba again and going into the gulf on a close track as Gustav...

[chris_fit]

do you really think ike will get to 20N? This track will be easy enough to verify as early as tomorrow....keep an eye on the latitude

That's a pretty big shift in the GFDL...

What and when is the next model coming out?

IMO I don't think so... Ike is not verifying right now, he is heading just about due West. GFDL says he should be moving WSW.

[Brent]

do you really think ike will get to 20N? This track will be easy enough to verify as early as tomorrow....keep an eye on the latitude

That's a pretty big shift in the GFDL...

What and when is the next model coming out?

I agree, it would have to move WSW or even SW all the way to Guantamano. I don't buy it. I could see a Cuba hit but not THAT far south.

[Grease Monkey]

do you really think ike will get to 20N? This track will be easy enough to verify as early as tomorrow....keep an eye on the latitude

That's a pretty big shift in the GFDL...

What and when is the next model coming out?

IMO I don't think so... Ike is not verifying right now, he is heading just about due West. GFDL says he should be moving WSW.

Since it appears ike is looking like he's becoming better organized again, wouldn't that also indicate that the ridge may be easing off (creating a more westerly track) on him as well as shear?

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z HWRF Identical to GFDL..Central GOM headed to LA