ATL: IKE Discussion

[AJC3]

It hasn't stopped. Recon proves that. The eye has tightened up so it is an illusion.

Recon wont lie! Thanks for the updates over in the recon forum RL3AO... Radar clearly shows a well defined eye getting slightly smaller on the last few frames

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... X&loop=yes

Well, if you average KHOU's last two ill-advised short-term radar based assumptions of an "acceleration" in forward speed to 25 MPH coupled with a "stop", you come up with a forward speed of about 12-13 MPH. I forget, what was the forward speed of Ike in the 21 UTC NHC advisory?

[Stormcenter]

Ike is still moving. IMO

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[jasons2k]

Neil Frank is agreeing with him that its stopped? Have they heard of recon? I can send them the Google Earth overlay if they need it.

No, he was cmparing it to Carla, which had a very well-documeted trochoidal loop pattern it is apporached the coast. Same thing here likely. Then he got cut off........again........

[NEXRAD]

High tides along the NE Texas and SW Lousiana coast will be generally occuring late tonight and early Saturday. Based on tide gauges, the surge levels have been pretty steady this afternoon, but will no-doubt be building later tonight. I'd not be surprised to see some rather fast rises.

- Jay

[Jessie]

What is a storm surge ---- a big single event or gradual increase in water levels? If it's a single surge when does it occur --- just before the eye? If gradual at what point in the storm will the water level be at its peak? Thanks

[ocala]

KHOU met just said Ike has come to a complete stop in the last hour or so. Don't know how reliable he is because he is the one that said Ike was moving about 24-25mph a couple of hours ago.

Also said a 82mph gusts was just reported in Moody Gardens..

I'm watching it on my GRAnalyst but I only have 50 minutes worth of data. But it definately doens't look like it has moved. In addition the eye is becoming clearly visible.

Watching here with GR2.
Could you post a pic with analyst?

Nevermind. Thanks weatherfreak!

[rtd2]

It hasn't stopped. Recon proves that. The eye has tightened up so it is an illusion.

Recon wont lie! Thanks for the updates over in the recon forum RL3AO... Radar clearly shows a well defined eye getting slightly smaller on the last few frames

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... X&loop=yes

Well, if you average KHOU's last two ill-advised short-term radar based assumptions of an "acceleration" in forward speed to 25 MPH coupled with a "stop", you come up with a forward speed of about 12-13 MPH. I forget, what was the forward speed of Ike in the 21 UTC NHC advisory?

been between 10-12 all day i think....

[Houstonia]

Southwest Houston reporting in... we've had NO RAIN. It's just now starting to get dark and the wind has really begun to pick up. It's HOT AND HUMID outside... mostly humid.

It LOOKS like a cold front, but it FEELS like a hot wet summer.

Still have power and am hoping hoping hoping that by some freak chance - we keep our power.

With all of this waiting around I understand what the 1900'ers went through.. and I understand the people down in Galveston who didn't leave. In the 25 years since Alicia, I've forgotten about all the WAITING there is... just waiting for the storm to come in... I keep thinking.. .maybe it won't be as bad as everyone keeps saying...

[rtd2]

What is a storm surge ---- a big single event or gradual increase in water levels? If it's a single surge when does it occur --- just before the eye? If gradual at what point in the storm will the water level be at its peak? Thanks

gradual increase UNTIL lowest pressure(center) comes in then its pretty fast...

[attallaman]

We did not have the evacuation disaster of Rita. It should be painfully obvious to everyone that anyone who chose not to evacuate made that choice for themselves. The stupid mayor of Galveston arguably encouraged some people to stay with her inept handling of the situation, but there was even time to leave after she made her belated evacuation order.

She's likely to be indirectly responsible for some deaths, but the primary responsibility lies on each adult. Governor Perry has done nothing wrong that I can see.

There have been zero reports of "I tried to evacuate yesterday but I couldn't."

I agree 100% with you on your comments about the mayor. Two days ago during a press briefing she was asked why an evacuation order hadn't been ordered to get the special needs citizens out of Galveston and to a shelter of last resort. The mayor responded by saying there were no shelters of last resort to evacuate anyone to let alone any buildings in or near Galveston strong enough to be used as shelters. She acted like she really could have cared less about the whole situation. I say send her back to the kitchen and let her make more cookies. In that rig she was wearing that day she looked like she had just come from the kitchen where she had been making cookies before she came out to address the press. If people die in Galveston as a result of this hurricane come election time Galveston might decide to put a new mayor into office but then again they might not.

[NEXRAD]

What is a storm surge ---- a big single event or gradual increase in water levels? If it's a single surge when does it occur --- just before the eye? If gradual at what point in the storm will the water level be at its peak? Thanks

Storm surge generally develops more rapidly immediately before a storm's eye moves ashore, but with Ike's size the surge will likely be more gradual. The peak surge will likely occur late tonight and early Saturday with the occurence of high tides.

- Jay

[jasons2k]

I can't believe what some of these GLS county people are saying on Channel 11 right now. Leave the surge/storm info to the experts please...ugh....

[HURAKAN]

The pier looked good before Ike:

[Weatherfreak14]

By this look it looks that there is still a double eyewall, or at least to bands within the one eyewall.

[Shawee]

What is a storm surge ---- a big single event or gradual increase in water levels? If it's a single surge when does it occur --- just before the eye? If gradual at what point in the storm will the water level be at its peak? Thanks

Storm surge generally develops more rapidly immediately before a storm's eye moves ashore, but with Ike's size the surge will likely be more gradual. The peak surge will likely occur late tonight and early Saturday with the occurence of high tides.

- Jay

additional reading:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/storm_surge.shtml

[Wx_Warrior]

I watched Gene Norman when he was a weekender in Beaumont...

IMHO a wnw jog on radar.

[Cape Verde]

Anyone else noticed how nervous the pets are getting here in Houston? My dogs are going crazy, and my quaker parrot won't stop shrieking. It's going to be a long night.

Ch. 11 just said Ike is stalled as of the past hour. Indication of a turn?

My cat is being quite a needy pest right now. It's like she wants comfort. I can't keep her off of me. She's not normally like that.

[rtd2]

By this look it looks that there is still a double eyewall, or at least to bands within the one eyewall.

Like his big sister had...Katrina

[dhweather]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 122255
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
600 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE STRENGTHENS SOME AS IT BEARS DOWN ON GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST...
...RISING WATER LEVELS AND BATTERING WAVES AFFECTING THE AREA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 600 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF VERY LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 105 MILES
...170 KM...SOUTH OF BEAUMONT TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 13
MPH...20 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
BY LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE IKE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET
IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 600 PM CDT POSITION...28.2 N...93.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[O Town]

When is the satellite eclipse and how long does it last?
Im generally asleep when it happens, lol. But won't it be about the time Ike is
making landfall?