ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[AdamFirst]

What are the chances of this thing doubling back on herself, as in heading back south?

Ferro out of WSVN suggested that earlier today

[crazycajuncane]

The local mets didn't mention much about Fay over the GOM. It's like they got tired of talking about her. The last few nights they were really hot on the GOM being a possible track, but they have bought into the inland track following interstate 10. Faye might like the roads better than the water?

[LowndesCoFire]

Why does the NHC have Fay at a 43% chance of being a Trop Storm in 48hrs??
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

[tolakram]

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES...60 KM...SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

[Ivanhater]

Exactly Wxman, now shows it getting in the gulf a bit, and being ever so close and not to focus on that line, I would think you being a pro would advise not to focus on the line and say it could get in the gulf, with that "line: only being just a few miles from the gulf

[LaBreeze]

Yes, crazycajuncane, I did hear that and also that we may just get a nice drying "breeze" out of old Fay.

[Talon402]

My wife, who is an Alachua County Elementary teacher, just told me she got a call from the district that Alachua County Public Schools are closed tomorrow for students, teachers, and other personnel.

[paintplaye]

Why does the NHC have Fay at a 43% chance of being a Trop Storm in 48hrs??
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

It being in the gulf.

[jasons2k]

I've read over the last few pages and want to clarify a few things before going to bed myself:

1) No, this will not become a hurricane overnight (someone asked that)

2) I don't see any movement yet. The eye-like feature has changed shape as it rotates and gives the illusion it jogged NW (or is beginning to move) but the actual center is still stationary on radar. The little debris clouds circulating around the center on GR3 tip it off.

3) The center isn't contracting either

[Sabanic]

Exactly Wxman, now shows it getting in the gulf a bit, and being ever so close and not to focus on that line, I would think you being a pro would advise not to focus on the line and say it could get in the gulf, with that "line: only being just a few miles from the gulf

That's what I'm thinking also IH. Track has dropped further southward for sure, and any slight bit more will definitely have Fay visiting the GOM once again

[LowndesCoFire]

Why does the NHC have Fay at a 43% chance of being a Trop Storm in 48hrs??
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

It being in the gulf.

Ahhh...ok...

[ROCK]

Exactly Wxman, now shows it getting in the gulf a bit, and being ever so close and not to focus on that line, I would think you being a pro would advise not to focus on the line and say it could get in the gulf, with that "line: only being just a few miles from the gulf

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

all this talk about steering.. ....high looks to be centered right to her north now.....

BTW- the 18z GFS operational runs look w to wsw also with a few wnw to nw...

[crazycajuncane]

Yes, crazycajuncane, I did hear that and also that we may just get a nice drying "breeze" out of old Fay.

That's fine with me. I'm headed to New Orleans for the weekend to celebrate the birthday. I love hurricane parties, but Downtown New Orleans isn't where I'd want to be during one!

I was and still am keeping my eye on this storm. I was surprised that the local mets pretty much ruled the storm out. It's not over till it's over. Tomorrow could be a whole new story, but as of this point I don't think I have much to worry about.

[LowndesCoFire]

I've read over the last few pages and want to clarify a few things before going to bed myself:

1) No, this will not become a hurricane overnight (someone asked that)

2) I don't see any movement yet. The eye-like feature has changed shape as it rotates and gives the illusion it jogged NW (or is beginning to move) but the actual center is still stationary on radar. The little debris clouds circulating around the center on GR3 tip it off.

3) The center isn't contracting either

Is that an official forecast to make life and death decisions by?

[Sabanic]

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES...60 KM...SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

Based on this graphic she is definitely a tad WSW of where she was. Right?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I've read over the last few pages and want to clarify a few things before going to bed myself:

1) No, this will not become a hurricane overnight (someone asked that)

2) I don't see any movement yet. The eye-like feature has changed shape as it rotates and gives the illusion it jogged NW (or is beginning to move) but the actual center is still stationary on radar. The little debris clouds circulating around the center on GR3 tip it off.

3) The center isn't contracting either

I disagree about the center not contracting. You have a band thats getting ready to start working its way around the center for at least the 2nd time in turn that will make the center smaller which means its contracting.

This past vortex message the center was 50 miles wide lets see what it is on the next pass.

[Frank P]

Watch the loop in slow speed and zoom a little... notice how the western edge of the center goes from the coast line to about 5-10 miles inland.. not sure if its moving towards the west or the center is expanding to the west or what.. just looking for something/anything other than it just sitting there spinning and not moving

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... B&loop=yes

[hcane27]

Ask Derek his opinion of the ECMWF.

Yep... don't touch the EURO with a 10 foot pole, even if deveine assistance provided to the model

It is wonderful for the mid latitudes. However, if has been worse than the reputation that the Canadian has (and most of the Canadian's rep is UNDESERVED) with some of its solutions so far this season (especially with how it spins everything into a monster)[/quote]

May want to review Franklin's verification report of last season. ECMWF not the best by a long shot, but not the worst either and seemingly better in N PAC basin though that appears to be mainly driven by performance during 1 storm.[/quote]

Just for grins .... here are the error numbers for Fay to date ...

OFCL - 29 mi @ 12 hrs , 38 mi @ 24 hrs , 56 mi @ 36 hrs , 76 mi @ 48 hrs , 99 mi @ 72 hrs , 140 mi @ 96 hrs , 217 mi @ 120 hrs

ECMWF - 68 mi @ 12 hrs , 104 mi @ 24 hrs , 126 mi @ 36 hrs , 141 mi @ 48 hrs , 124 mi @ 72 hrs , 70 mi @ 96 hrs , 146 mi @ 120 hrs

GFS - 35 mi @ 12 hrs , 52 mi @ 24 hrs , 60 mi @ 36 hrs , 63 mi @ 48 hrs , 90 mi @ 72 hrs , 151 mi @ 96 hrs , 234 mi @ 120 hrs

GFDL - 35 mi @ 12 hrs , 45 mi @ 24 hrs , 57 mi @ 36 hrs , 71 mi @ 48 hrs , 144 mi @ 72 hrs , 205 mi @ 96 hrs , 203 hrs @ 120 hrs

so ..... best @ 12 hrs - GFS/GFDL
24 hrs - GFDL
36 hrs - GFDL
48 hrs - GFS
72 hrs - GFS
96 hrs - ECMWF
120 hrs - ECMWF

[PTPatrick]

Interestingly, NAM at 0z move due west after Ocala...clipping Apalchicola and it ends at around 84 hrs about 40 mils south of MObile

[tolakram]

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES...60 KM...SOUTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

Based on this graphic she is definitely a tad WSW of where she was. Right?

Wobble. My chart has errors too, I guesstimate on the exact placement of the dot, but the coordinates at 11 are SW of the reported position at 8. I don't think it's meaningful as a stalled system will move around.