ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[PTPatrick]

i know this grid was made for 94L but i thought i saw fay offthe coast of floriada. Im not sure if im looking at this yight but it looks like this shows fay back in thr yucatan channel
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

ROFLMAO...thats crazy..actually...the GFDL presentations of Fay, on the 94L grids, have not matched at all the actually Fay GFDL models...but that have been similar to GFS, until now.

[Stormcenter]

i know this grid was made for 94L but i thought i saw fay offthe coast of floriada. Im not sure if im looking at this yight but it looks like this shows fay back in thr yucatan channel
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

I believe that depicts 94L butting heads with a mean ridge forcing it southward into the Yucatan channel. IMO
What a crazy track that would be.

Wait maybe it's not...my mistake.

[Wthrman13]

Was it Frances or Jeanne that had the Huge eye? This eye reminds me of that one.

It was Frances. A couple days before, Frances had lost its inner core due to disruption by shear, and was in the process of forming a new, very large eye during the last 12 hours or so leading up to landfall. I was there with the DOW's scanning the storm, and it was quite a sight watching the radar display update minute by minute as the huge eye crept closer and closer. Of course, that was a high-end Cat 2/borderline 3, and Fay is a TS, but the resemblance on radar is striking, nonetheless.

[Stormcenter]

Why are so many people saying she won't become a Hurricane? Just another 15mph increase in winds and she is a 75mph Hurricane. She has a fully closed eyewall now looking at radar and so she should be good to go if she stays out over water.

But she is about to go back inland and remain there for at least 24 hours. Yeah I know she strengthened over land yesterday but I don't believe that will happen again.

I said if she can stay over water. Shes not moving in land yet so as long as shes over water she has a chance to become a Hurricane IMO

I gotcha.

[Sanibel]

Slow move west.

[THead]

She needs to get moving somewhere, dumping endless amounts of rain in the band of the southern "eyewall", in and north of the Melbourne area. If it was flooded there 6 hours ago, I'd hate to see what it looks like there now. Man...

[PTPatrick]

so far GFS from 0z hasnt changed much from 18z...although it does move fay almost Due west or even a hair WSW to between Tampa and Ocala and then she jumps North to over Perry in Taylor county at 24 hrs....I dont quite get it


Update--due west out of Taylor county, across Apalachicola and sitting just west of Apalachicola at 48 hours.

[jaxfladude]

Fay is going west!!!!!!
But then that WILL lead to more problems....

[cpdaman]

convection popping more east could she follow the convection LOL

i remember someone once said to look at the top of the convection and see which way it is headed for guidance as to short term movement

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

but it does give a better impression of getting squashed, also almost looks like a tiny eye east of canaveral , thank god that's not true

perhaps she gets squashed than moves WSW?

[HURAKAN]

Slow move west.

[baitism]

If it passes roughly west from this point on, it will cross Florida at one of its thinner parts. Not sure if it will survive the trip though.

[Innotech]

its not moving west, its stationary.

[HURAKAN]

[cpdaman]

wow look at the infared as of 315 (after the 2 hour hiatus from updating)

[SoupBone]

If it passes roughly west from this point on, it will cross Florida at one of its thinner parts. Not sure if it will survive the trip though.

Are you serious? Have you been watching Fay at all? LOL

[Innotech]

Fay has survived some very very harsh landmass conditions already. a traverse across Florida again would not kill her.

[cpdaman]

long range radar shows a trend for her precip shield to be tilted more wsw/ene building N on the eastern extent and building south on western extent

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[dixiebreeze]

Take a look -- Cedar Key buoy winds:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/quikscat.php?station=cdrf1

[cpdaman]

makes me wonder if the trough over the east (looks like it is still building down even as the axis passes east) could erode the ridge's SE side and push her WSW then west then WNW?

[jaxfladude]

its not moving west, its stationary.

Explain please....