Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Derek Ortt]

the system is not moving fast... it is not a wave because it is moving too fast... there, somehow, is nothing at the surface

[x-y-no]

66 hours - still south of 18z track - trough shallower and further east than 18z run

[DESTRUCTION5]

66 hours - still south of 18z track - trough shallower and further east than 18z run

Little visual action X-Y

[x-y-no]

66 hours - still south of 18z track - trough shallower and further east than 18z run

Little visual action X-Y

OK ...

0z at 66 hours:



18z at 72:

[rockyman]

GFS out through 90 hours:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Turn north begins in 72 hours and the turn is slightly further west than the previous run...but still safely offshore Florida (for now).

[blp]

Seems much stronger on this run. I think this is the strongest the GFS has portrayed so far.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS out through 90 hours:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Turn north begins in 72 hours and the turn is slightly further west than the previous run...but still safely offshore Florida (for now).

I couldn't help but notice that it appears there is three big "H"' symbols directly to the north of 92L at the end of that 90 hour run...

[MWatkins]

Looking at the surface and h5 charts through 90 hours...there is a good chance it will get cut off (in this scenario). The ridge is building back in over the CONUS and the trough is leaving the picture...leaving 92L in a very light steering pattern...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_090m.gif

MW

[rockyman]

GFS from 90 to 102 hours...system slows to a northward drift

[boca]

Why would the 00GFS run have 92L moving north into 3 high pressure areas to the north of it at 90 hrs.

[x-y-no]

102 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml

loitering in the northern Bahamas.

[AtlanticWind]

Seems to stall 92L off the florida coast

[AtlanticWind]

She is stalled on this run!

[Stormcenter]

Yeah there are some slight changes in the lastest GFS run but overall "still" looking good for Fl. and the rest of the U.S.

[Vortex]

thu H+102 a slower solution and appears almost little or no sterring..

[blp]

Drifting back West. Seems like the trough is leaving it behind.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126l.gif

[x-y-no]

126 hours - still in northern Bahamas - drifting slowly west.

[rockyman]

rut-roh...system drifting west at 126 hours (GFS)

[AtlanticWind]

Yeah there are some slight changes in the lastest GFS run but overall "still" looking good for Fl. and the rest of the U.S.

To me this is not good news for Florida if the storm stalls off our coast.

[MWatkins]

Blocked...big time at 126H. Playing out much like the 12z euro scenario...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126m.gif

Notice it has been parked under the high to the north and cut off from the SW flow from the old trough...

MW