ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Sjones]

When is the next GFS model run?

[ROCK]

The models are starting to trend back west, unfortunately, I think they are going to stay West.

It takes more than one run to "trend"... 3-4 and we'll talk trends.

agreed.....

[dwg71]

12z HWRF animation.This will open many eyes in the northern GOM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Notice NNE hook at end and also appears headed to SE La, NoLA area.

[Wx_Warrior]

Never been big on that model (HWRF). When models shift that much after each run, everything is up in the air. Yep....HWRF has a NE turn @ end.

[shah8]

Going back to the GDFL track...This is the immaculate reception for NOLA track, where the salt lakes are driven into the city. Obviously too early to say whether this actually will happen so...

Now, the HWRF? It's *really* slow to intensify Gustav, and it still does a smaller version of the freakout run. That is suggestive that there isn't really any point to thinking anything less than a Cat 3 almost no matter *what* happens.

HWRF is going to need some tweaking on the intensity front after the season, though.

[dwg71]

The models are starting to trend back west, unfortunately, I think they are going to stay West.

It takes more than one run to "trend"... 3-4 and we'll talk trends.

agreed.....

Not sure of what west trend that is spoken of...GFDL continued eastern swing. So did UKMET, at this point (and that could change) SE LA seems to be the target.

[Wx_Warrior]

Geez...cant post the img...

1pm CDT NHC now looks to be direct NOLA.

100% AMEN

[Pearl River]

My non-meteorological opinion is the models will continue to bounce back and forth for a couple more days. The best thing to do is prepare as if it's coming at you.

[ROCK]

The models are starting to trend back west, unfortunately, I think they are going to stay West.

It takes more than one run to "trend"... 3-4 and we'll talk trends.



Not sure of what west trend that is spoken of...GFDL continued eastern swing. So did UKMET, at this point (and that could change) SE LA seems to be the target.

I am not saying anything about a trend west......so leave me out of the equation... thanks....

[ROCK]

Geez...cant post the img...

1pm CDT NHC now looks to be direct NOLA.

100% AMEN

better have the 5 day line hitting you square in the face early on, IMO........but models like NO for some reason.....Maybe its b/c its below sea level?

[Jason_B]

The models are starting to trend back west, unfortunately, I think they are going to stay West.

No they won't. People will be pulling their hair out all week over these "trends" until late Saturday or Sunday when we finally have a consensus on where exactly along the Gulf this will hit. Personally I wouldn't pay too much attention to the models til then because obviously they have no handle on the situation.

[Pearl River]

ROCK wrote

Wx_Warrior wrote:
Geez...cant post the img...

1pm CDT NHC now looks to be direct NOLA.

100% AMEN



better have the 5 day line hitting you square in the face early on, IMO........but models like NO for some reason.....Maybe its b/c its below sea level?

Ol' Gus just wants some good creole cooking

[Ed Mahmoud]

The models are starting to trend back west, unfortunately, I think they are going to stay West.

Just the HWRF, and that model still seems to have some bugs...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Geez...cant post the img...

1pm CDT NHC now looks to be direct NOLA.

100% AMEN

[93superstorm]

More HWRF and GFDL maps:

hwrf[img]


GFDL:

[Jason_B]

I think it's going to end up slightly south of the NHC track at least in the short-term, it's still moving due west.

[attallaman]

Someone on another forum mentioned that Cantore is in Biloxi. Biloxi will be fine. [/quote]Wasn't he in Biloxi during Katrina? Biloxi wasn't so fine then.[/quote]

I can't confirm nor deny the location of Cantore during Katrina since I had other things to worry about then. But it was a joke anyway.[/quote]Cantore and crew planned to ride out Katrina at the MS Gulf Coast Coliseum but decided to move to the Naval Retirement Home in Gulfport on the beach and rode it out there when conditions at the coliseum became too dangerous.

[Shawee]

Never been big on that model (HWRF). When models shift that much after each run, everything is up in the air. Yep....HWRF has a NE turn @ end.

Not one of my fav's either; I agree with you and others like Frank that we don't get our panties in a bundle with every model run.

Obviously still too early to nail this one. My first instincts were east of N.O., now I'm leaning west a bit. Hopefully it doesn't listen to anyone and takes a Mexican vacation! The NHC is the ultimate and I do what ever is dictated by their analysis and already making plans to evac this weekend. Good luck to everyone along the entire coast and thanks for all of the great posts and insights.

[rtd2]

The models are starting to trend back west, unfortunately, I think they are going to stay West.

No they won't. People will be pulling their hair out all week over these "trends" until late Saturday or Sunday when we finally have a consensus on where exactly along the Gulf this will hit. Personally I wouldn't pay too much attention to the models til then because obviously they have no handle on the situation.

What you will see is the Left, middle ,right post....People In TX will see a trend west. people in La/Ms will see a North trend, and people in florida will see a east trend...

[ronjon]

The models are starting to trend back west, unfortunately, I think they are going to stay West.

No they won't. People will be pulling their hair out all week over these "trends" until late Saturday or Sunday when we finally have a consensus on where exactly along the Gulf this will hit. Personally I wouldn't pay too much attention to the models til then because obviously they have no handle on the situation.

What you will see is the Left middle right post....People In TX will see a trend west people in La/Ms will see a North trend and peoples in florida will see a east trend...

Ah, I see none of the above. A stall somewhere in the north-central GOM.