ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Weatherfreak000]

With another shift South by both the GFS and GFDL I can see another southward shift by the NHC coming...

[Canelaw99]

Which, logically, doesn't make sense to me with Ike seemingly going more west than south of west, and the shear letting off. Can someone, preferably a met, make heads or tails of this for us?

[artist]

With another shift South by both the GFS and GFDL I can see another southward shift by the NHC coming...

not all models have shifted south, do you have any other reasons than these 2 models as to why they would shift it south? And since they are run off one another one shifting would probably cause the other one to shift.

[Weatherfreak000]

Which, logically, doesn't make sense to me with Ike seemingly going more west than south of west, and the shear letting off. Can someone, preferably a met, make heads or tails of this for us?

Doesn't matter if the storm hits Cuba...if the storm goes through the straits the story is the same...the models are currently diverged about the weakness.

In the short-term the GFDL and HWRF are still on track...if a more SW motion happens we will see it verify. It's completely a waiting game.

[Weatherfreak000]

With another shift South by both the GFS and GFDL I can see another southward shift by the NHC coming...

not all models have shifted south, do you have any other reasons than these 2 models as to why they would shift it south? And since they are run off one another one shifting would probably cause the other one to shift.

Not true, during Gustav HWRF was going into Texas while GFDL was going into LA/MS border.


The NHC takes highest regard in GFS and GFDL...both of those models are moving south of the NHC forecast. The NHC will shift track...nothing much to argue there because they follow the models.

[Vortex]

Here's my concern. If you look at the trends of the last 3 hours, climatology and then view ther 12 GFS there is no doubt this run looks as good as any.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[shah8]

The 18z HWRF is more believable. Just a straight west with no gains in lattitude. The GFDL is on crack, and nothing more needs to be said. How many strong storms do we know of that just gets *smushed* down that far?

Looking closely at the runs, I think that the gdfl and hwrf are making Ike too weak and more push-downable than Ike actually is. It's going to be very quick to figure out if it verifies by 00z runs.

[AtlanticWind]

The 18z HWRF is more believable. Just a straight west with no gains in lattitude. The GFDL is on crack, and nothing more needs to be said. How many strong storms do we know of that just gets *smushed* down that far?

Link Please?

[AtlanticWind]

The 18z HWRF is more believable. Just a straight west with no gains in lattitude. The GFDL is on crack, and nothing more needs to be said. How many strong storms do we know of that just gets *smushed* down that far?

Looking closely at the runs, I think that the gdfl and hwrf are making Ike too weak and more push-downable than Ike actually is. It's going to be very quick to figure out if it verifies by 00z runs.

I just found the HRwf it dips far south just like the gfdl

[tailgater]

Where's that Magic 8 ball I don't like these models. I'm tired of waiting hours for $3.75 gas, Chain saws and picking up debris.

[shah8]

Sorry, I just meant that the HWRF does not push down Ike all the way to Guantanamo Bay. Just down to a certain extent and then flat for awhile.

You can see all runs here:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[Dean4Storms]

The GFDL and HWRF look like they are heading Ike to somewhere between LA to FL Panhandle for the US landfall, just what we need.

[SouthFLTropics]

Here's my concern. If you look at the trends of the last 3 hours, climatology and then view ther 12 GFS there is no doubt this run looks as good as any.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Vortex, you may be on to something here. It almost looks like the stearing currents collapse when Ike is near FL and he just wanders around. This run would not suprise me with the way this season has gone and the fact that the area from Cuba, Florida, The Bahamas, and Hispanola has had weak steering around it for the past few weeks. Fay was tricky to forecast, then came Gus and his trip to Hispanola and then back South and then west. Throw Hanna in the mix and her crazy loop de loops. The steering current in this part of the tropics this year just isn't as cut and dry as it has been in years past.

SFT

[AtlanticWind]

The GFDL and HWRF look like they are heading Ike to somewhere between LA to FL Panhandle for the US landfall, just what we need.

The 18z model runs seem pretty extreme with the Sw dip , I am not buying this just yet . Lets see a couple more runs.

[jinftl]

Given the flip flopping models did in the same area a week ago....it almost seems the models are not quite grasping the synoptic set-up in this region....i am totally saying that as an amateur...but given the range we saw a week ago with hanna, i am not convinced we won't see ike's track flatten to the west and then shift wnw or nw....just as hanna's sw dip got flatter and flatter until it was gone...and a more climatoligically reasonable wnw forecast path ensued.

Here's my concern. If you look at the trends of the last 3 hours, climatology and then view ther 12 GFS there is no doubt this run looks as good as any.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Vortex, you may be on to something here. It almost looks like the stearing currents collapse when Ike is near FL and he just wanders around. This run would not suprise me with the way this season has gone and the fact that the area from Cuba, Florida, The Bahamas, and Hispanola has had weak steering around it for the past few weeks. Fay was tricky to forecast, then came Gus and his trip to Hispanola and then back South and then west. Throw Hanna in the mix and her crazy loop de loops. The steering current in this part of the tropics this year just isn't as cut and dry as it has been in years past.

SFT

[Grease Monkey]

The GFDL and HWRF look like they are heading Ike to somewhere between LA to FL Panhandle for the US landfall, just what we need.

They both look too radical to me at this time. I just don't see the ridge pushing down on ike that strong unless the ridge really starts picking up it's strength within the next 24 hours because currently it seems to be easing off.

[miamijaaz]

The GFDL and HWRF look like they are heading Ike to somewhere between LA to FL Panhandle for the US landfall, just what we need.

The 18z model runs seem pretty extreme with the Sw dip , I am not buying this just yet . Lets see a couple more runs.

For the HWRF to verify, Ike would need to immediately move SW until Guantanamo and then run through the spine of Cuba. For now, it's certainly not doing that.

[Dean4Storms]

If Ike went due west from here he would hit Cuba, he's currently tracking just South of due west. So bottom line is that the GFDL and HWRF could be dead on by taking Ike over Cuba if the ridge builds in, the track over Cuba would weaken Ike and he would be too far south to feel any weakness over Florida and continue to try and round the ridge once over in the SE GOM. Very plausible runs IMO.

[jlauderdal]

Here's my concern. If you look at the trends of the last 3 hours, climatology and then view ther 12 GFS there is no doubt this run looks as good as any.



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Vortex, you may be on to something here. It almost looks like the stearing currents collapse when Ike is near FL and he just wanders around. This run would not suprise me with the way this season has gone and the fact that the area from Cuba, Florida, The Bahamas, and Hispanola has had weak steering around it for the past few weeks. Fay was tricky to forecast, then came Gus and his trip to Hispanola and then back South and then west. Throw Hanna in the mix and her crazy loop de loops. The steering current in this part of the tropics this year just isn't as cut and dry as it has been in years past.

SFT

remember NHC slows ike down big time at days 4 and 5 which agree with your collapsed steering currents, if that system slows way down at the time period 100 miles north of its forecast location then SE FL is in for some real active weather for an extended period of time..max mayfield mentioned the slowdown on his update this afternoon in miami

[Dean4Storms]

Check the WV loops and you'll see the ridge bearing down on Ike, he really has nowhere else to go.