ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[deltadog03]

Good thing this didn't get off the coast far enough to hit the stream....To people who said that the upper enviro. wasn't good off the coast of fl...Well, there would have been a CANE for sure if this were 75 miles east of the coast.

[paintplaye]

Whoa this think never moved... Not good at all.

[KWT]

Yep totally agree deltadog, the system just couldn't tighten up its center before heading back to land, it was on its way breifly last night but its just a little close to land.

[carolina_73]

Reporting 8,000 homes in flood water. Some neighborhoods they haven't been able to get to yet. Rain totals in some areas are expected to be 30 to 40 inches. Expect alot of power outages especially if you get hit by the North and eastern side of the storm. Winds are gusting to 65mph and probably higher in some isolated places. Hope everyone in Florida fairs well. Good luck and gods speed.

[jlauderdal]

Good thing this didn't get off the coast far enough to hit the stream....To people who said that the upper enviro. wasn't good off the coast of fl...Well, there would have been a CANE for sure if this were 75 miles east of the coast.

haven't we seen some systems collapse once they get over land and expand in areal coverage, less intensity but alot more coverage of heavy rain?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey Delta, what do you think abotu the latest shifts south by the NHC and models. Are you beginning to think she has a better shot at emerging back in the gulf for a substantial period of time. Or have they locked on and shifted south for the last time? Or could now even start moving back to the north? I know one of the players in all this was the UL over TX last night but that thing is really moving out of the way in a hurry and does not look like it will have any effect on Fays track as high pressure looks to build back in. I guess I really don't have much idea and looking for a little help.

[paintplaye]

Hey Delta, what do you think abotu the latest shifts south by the NHC and models. Are you beginning to think she has a better shot at emerging back in the gulf for a substantial period of time. Or have they locked on and shifted south for the last time? Or could now even start moving back to the north? I know one of the players in all this was the UL over TX last night but that thing is really moving out of the way in a hurry and does not look like it will have any effect on Fays track as high pressure looks to build back in. I guess I really don't have much idea and looking for a little help.

Well the ULL has had an effect on the high a little bit so far already by kinda grinding away the ridge so it should send it WNW once it gets to that point. But it all depends on how quickly it gets out so the ridge can rebuild. I know I am not Delta but I thought I would put my input. If i am wrong feel free to correct me Delta.

[deltadog03]

I am not sure about the ULL yet. I think most of the effects from that should stay out west. As far as the GOM, it should atleast skirt the northern gom. The euro is still very persistant in bringing into there..I personally think thats prolly too far south. Once, it gets to the northern gom or right on the coast it should begin to push back out NE as there will be a break in the ridges.

[KWT]

Well the thing is if its on the coast then clearly its not going to be able to strengthen but then again it'll be hard to wind this system down as well if part of the circulation is on the shore, reminds me of Allison but heading in the other direction!

[CronkPSU]

no chance the center relocates over the gulf stream where that bright white spot is...right?

[Diva]

Well, it's obvious what Fay's favorite toy is......

[Sabanic]

I am not sure about the ULL yet. I think most of the effects from that should stay out west. As far as the GOM, it should atleast skirt the northern gom. The euro is still very persistant in bringing into there..I personally think thats prolly too far south. Once, it gets to the northern gom or right on the coast it should begin to push back out NE as there will be a break in the ridges.

So DD if that's the case do you think she will make it this far too the west before turning back? (Mobile, AL)

[deltadog03]

6z GFS is very weird with fay...Brings it into the NE gom then back over the mainland then back west then back east...lol what the heck?

[KWT]

Not with a circulation so powerful as the one Fay has CronkPSU.

[paintplaye]

6z GFS is very weird with fay...Brings it into the NE gom then back over the mainland then back west then back east...lol what the heck?

You mean it is going to do what it has been doing for the last two days? haha yep seems about right

[deltadog03]

One thing this could do is come into the gom...(E-NE gom) and sit long enough to then be picked up by a front that breaks the first ridge down...

[deltadog03]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

That would be concerning if it were still there at that time...Like I said though...weird run.

[paintplaye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_090l.gif

That would be concerning if it were still there at that time...Like I said though...weird run.

What do you expect with Fay she can never make up her mind

[KWT]

At least this time on the GFS run it doesn't end up back in the gulf again though like previous runs have done, I'd imagine unless it does head close to due west this seems likely to stay overland just.

[deltadog03]

KWT, it shows her sitting in the gom quite a bit.but, like I said just plain wierd run.