ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[gboudx]

Shiner's terrible. Drink Abita.

Oh no, right over DFW.

[cycloneye]

HWRF overplays intensity but anyway here is where the 12z run ends up in 126 hours.



12z HWRF animation.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[DESTRUCTION5]

HWRF overplays intensity but anyway here is where the 12z run ends up in 126 hours.



12z HWRF animation.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Thats disgusting Luis..LOL

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL ends in Eastern Cuba:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[ROCK]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I told my wife I'd take a break from hurricane watching until this became more of a threat to the GOM or our area, but a bet with Shiner involved is too hard to turn down. I'm putting up my 10+ days map right here and now and willing to take anyone in the Galleria area of Houston (I know you are Ed) out for a few beers after the storm or even better I'll happily go let you buy me a few... So here's my forecast track 10+ days out and I'm going to stick to it no matter how painful it may get 5 or 6 days from now

So here it is, anything in the extremely small cone (at us landfall) gets me many beers and even more headaches in other ways (I really don't want to see this and I realize it's just a strange form of -removed-).

*THIS IS THE POSTER'S IMAGE AND NOT IN ANY WAY TIED TO AN ACTUAL FORECAST PATH OR NHC OPINION*
*IT IS ONLY AN AMATEUR'S ATTEMPT AT PREDICTIVE MODELLING VERY FAR INTO THE FUTURE*

not a bad cone.....there Matt.......but I must refrain until I have MORE guidance than 200+ hrs out.....Just a hint, I thinking along similar lines......

Ed, I look forward to seeing your NGOM cone tomorrow....



BTW- I work DT in the old Gulf Building......be happy to pay or recieve debt owed....might just a have a courier bring you over a 12pk and drop it off at your office if it turns out bad...(which I highly doubt).

I am not much for going out after work with the baby and all......


Paul

[KWT]

The models really are hell bent on sending Ike WSW towards Cuba.

The thing to note is the GFDL does have this gaining more lattiude in the first half of its run but makes up for it with an even sharper WSW motion then before.

I'll stil lbe rather surprised if the high is able to pull the sort of track the GFDL suggests it will BUT its hard to ignore such agreement...

Howveer as Hanna is proving agremeent on a motion doesn't mean much sometimes...

[jasons2k]

Hey guys,

I work by the Galleria as well, but I don't think I'll be wagering anything just yet. Right now, this far out, my cone is basically from Tampico to Tampa. I think Matt's forecast is definitely a plausible scenario though.

[mattpetre]

At this point making 10 day predictions is really just a game and we all know that. I have no idea how this will play out at all, as a matter of fact I think there is a good chance that Ike will impale himself on the mountains of Hispaniola and a slight chance he could find a trough much sooner and follow Hannah's path more closely. Wait and see, but my best guess would be along the lines of following the GFDL for now. That model has been outperforming the others as far as long term track so far although UKMET has had some pretty good calls too. GFS just hasn't been "finding" these storms because of the intensity variations along their paths. Only way I see GFS nailing this is if troughs are unseasonably weak or if the storm never really gets its act together.

I really have no idea though, just love following the tropics.

BTW, I realize that on my "guess" map I have Ike moving much faster than most expect and I don't really count on that coming to fruition, but I do believe it will be faster than currently forecast once Hannah takes off up the coast.

[Ed Mahmoud]

My cone would have to be forecast points with a radius of uncertainty, as I am not good at making maps.

Can't argue with the NHC 5 day forecast. Even if I did want to argue, they are trained professionals, and I'm not.


Well, I am a trained professional, just not in their field. Posted this link in USA weather BTW, but nobody looks at that with 4 cyclones in the Atlantic...

Too many new meteorologists

Using data derived from the American Meteorological Society–University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Curricula and U.S. Department of Education statistics, it is found that the number of meteorology bachelor's degree recipients in the United States has reached a level unprecedented in at least the past 40 years: from 600 to possibly 1,000 graduates per year. Furthermore, this number is increasing at a rate of approximately 8%–11% per year. The number of meteorology majors has also increased up to 10% per year since the late 1990s. The number of meteorology bachelor's degree recipients is projected to increase at a rate of approximately 5%–12% per year through 2011. This simultaneous combination of record numbers and rapid recent increases is not mirrored in other related fields or in the American college population as a whole, suggesting a meteorology-specific cause for the increase in undergraduates. These graduation and enrollment trends are compared to data on the employment of meteorology bachelor's degree holders. The number of entry-level meteorology positions in the United States available each year appears to be no more than about half the number of new degreed meteorologists. According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, growth in meteorology employment has averaged 1.2% per year from 1994–2004 and is expected to be no more than 1.6% per year through 2014. These numbers and trends portend an increasing oversupply of meteorology graduates versus meteorology employment opportunities if current enrollment and employment trends continue.

If the met students have taken, as I assume, about 16 hours of calculus, 20 hours of hard sciences (chem and physics), and all the normal undergrad fluff stuff like English Comp and History, they could probably get petroleum engineering degrees in 2 years. Starting pay now high 5 figures.


But no amateurs visit petroleum engineering forums.

[Portastorm]

Matt's cone is certainly interesting and bold as well! While my very early thoughts are Ike makes his right turn further east than that ... I'm generally with the rest of you in that my cone is Tampico to Tampa. Not ready yet to hone in further.

Although I'm in Austin, I come down to H-town enough on business that I could repay my debt easily enough.

[KWT]

I'm very interested on what the ECM is going to show, its been generally suggesting a Cuba hit for a few days now then eventually back into the gulf of Mexico with only a slow motion. we shall have to see I suppose but this should get more time in those favorable waters than Gustav did.

[mattpetre]

Heck, if Hannah doesn't start moving soon (as predicted by her models), then I'm guessing all of Ike's models will change drastically in a day or two.

[KWT]

Thats a fair issue therwe Matt because the models are still showing Hanna shooting off to the NW right away.

I believe the NHC said the longer Hanna takes to move out the longer this north of west motion lasts. The GFDL shows it lasting longer but then responds by digging Ike stronger to the WSW.

[Stratosphere747]

Euro is already showing a possible weakness later in the period and movement towards the WNW/NW.

Take a breath and wait a few days before believing any track towards or even hinting at something moving into the GOM.

[El Nino]

12z GFDL ends in Eastern Cuba:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

When you see the time it takes to strenghten at the beginning, I can say that it's not very trustfull.

[mattpetre]

12z GFDL ends in Eastern Cuba:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

When you see the time it takes to strenghten at the beginning, I can say that it's not very trustfull.

I think it's seeing the outflow of Hannah supressing Ike until she moves a good bit more out of the way. After what we've seen with Hanna and Gustav (distances between storms very similar), I'd think this was pretty spot on for how development could evolve.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 021848
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1848 UTC TUE SEP 2 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE (AL092008) 20080902 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080902 1800 080903 0600 080903 1800 080904 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.0N 45.6W 19.9N 48.7W 21.1N 52.1W 22.4N 55.5W
BAMD 19.0N 45.6W 19.8N 49.0W 20.7N 52.4W 21.3N 55.9W
BAMM 19.0N 45.6W 19.7N 49.0W 20.6N 52.4W 21.4N 55.9W
LBAR 19.0N 45.6W 19.8N 48.8W 20.9N 52.2W 22.2N 55.9W
SHIP 55KTS 64KTS 70KTS 73KTS
DSHP 55KTS 64KTS 70KTS 73KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080904 1800 080905 1800 080906 1800 080907 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.6N 58.4W 23.8N 62.8W 22.7N 68.8W 22.0N 75.0W
BAMD 21.6N 59.1W 20.3N 66.1W 18.7N 74.2W 17.1N 81.6W
BAMM 22.1N 58.8W 21.8N 64.1W 20.4N 70.4W 19.2N 76.4W
LBAR 23.3N 59.3W 23.9N 65.3W 21.9N 70.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 72KTS 66KTS 63KTS 67KTS
DSHP 72KTS 66KTS 63KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.0N LONCUR = 45.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 18.4N LONM12 = 42.4W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 17.8N LONM24 = 39.8W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 996MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 120NM

[ROCK]

Euro is already showing a possible weakness later in the period and movement towards the WNW/NW.

Take a breath and wait a few days before believing any track towards or even hinting at something moving into the GOM.

Yes it does Scott, be we are talking almost 1,800 miles and 9 days to verify....come on even you can admit that there could be a weakness or there could be not....way to early....

as far as the beer bet. I am only doing it for fun as I would love to see Ed eat his "Texas season over" thread he put out in August....


Paul

[KWT]

UKMO and ECM both suggesting a possible weakness for Ike to move into, I think thats probably a possible set-up then a Cuba hit. To a certain extent other models also showing something of a hook that ECM shows.

Will have to wait and see but the ECM is far more pluaseable then the GFS for now IMO. UKMO probably has this gaining too much lattiude between 50-60W.

[ROCK]

UKMO and ECM both suggesting a possible weakness for Ike to move into, I think thats probably a possible set-up then a Cuba hit. To a certain extent other models also showing something of a hook that ECM shows.

Will have to wait and see but the ECM is far more pluaseable then the GFS for now IMO. UKMO probably has this gaining too much lattiude between 50-60W.

UK is jacked up but I get whats its seeing....weakness left by Hanna...the NOGAPS is the NOGAPS.. ..the ones that count HWRF, GFDL show Cuba, DR...for now....best guidance available so I will go with the NHC which basically splits the difference...