Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

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x-y-no
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#1201 Postby x-y-no » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:21 pm

It was a near thing, but this run misses the trough connection.

Image
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: Re:

#1202 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:21 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Yeah there are some slight changes in the lastest GFS run but overall "still" looking good for Fl. and the rest of the U.S.


To me this is not good news for Florida if the storm stalls off our coast.


The beach erosion from hell lol. Jeane anyone?
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Re:

#1203 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:21 pm

rockyman wrote:rut-roh...system drifting west at 126 hours (GFS)



That's what I was afraid of...it gets pinned under the high and it pushes it back to the west at a slow pace...

Frances was SLOOOOW and it was a very long two days as it passed. I really am not in a hurry to relive that again...
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Re:

#1204 Postby MWatkins » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:22 pm

x-y-no wrote:It was a near thing, but this run misses the trough connection.

Image


Exactly Jan...and in that position it will take a long wave trough...not a series of short waves to dislodge it.

MW
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#1205 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:22 pm

H+126 looks like big canadia high building in...very important changes this run
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#1206 Postby rockyman » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:23 pm

GFS at 138...inching toward Florida coast (WPB to Ft Lauderdale area)
Last edited by rockyman on Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1207 Postby x-y-no » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:23 pm

Ouch ...

138 hours moving wsw towards SFL
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#1208 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:25 pm

The euro was hinting at this on the 12z run today getting pushed back west...This may be a very significant change.
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#1209 Postby x-y-no » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:25 pm

Strong surface/850 ridge on top

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1210 Postby boca » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:26 pm

Its amazing how these runs change drastically from run to run. Frances 2004 type senario.
Last edited by boca on Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1211 Postby Duddy » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:26 pm

Impact South Florida on this run?
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#1212 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:27 pm

landfall SFL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif
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#1213 Postby x-y-no » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:27 pm

150 hours landfall SFL
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#1214 Postby rockyman » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:27 pm

GFS Landfall at 150 hours between WPB and FTL...accelerating WSW
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Re:

#1215 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:27 pm

x-y-no wrote:Strong surface/850 ridge on top

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _138.shtml


I'm not liking how this run is playing out at all...Could get uglier than we first thought if this were to verify... :crying:
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1216 Postby GreenSky » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:27 pm

Could someone post the models graphic?

And a link of the page of all the spaghetti computer models would be good so I don't have to keep asking. Thanks.
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AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L Model Runs

#1217 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:28 pm

Blocked . and than moves west into so fla
Last edited by AtlanticWind on Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#1218 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:28 pm

00z GFS is probably the worst case scenario run. Luckily though we are still many days out, and the model is likely to change again over the course of the next few days.
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Re:

#1219 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:29 pm

rockyman wrote:GFS Landfall at 150 hours between WPB and FTL...accelerating WSW


Wow, that is eerily familiar to a particular storm in 2005...Landfall near FTL and moves WSW across the glades...

I think we need to take that run of the GFS out and :2gunfire:
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Re:

#1220 Postby Vortex » Thu Aug 14, 2008 11:30 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:00z GFS is probably the worst case scenario run. Luckily though we are still many days out, and the model is likely to change again over the course of the next few days.



It does have support from the 12Z Euro...Very similar only the gfs bends back west further south.
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