ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[hiflyer]

Using the SV1 display on GRLevel3 to get a better definition of the circulation...that looks like about 7 miles in 100 mins NW.....SV=Surface Velocity.

[tolakram]

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... 24&zoom=13

[Agua]

Looks like some northerly component to its westward movement to me. Hopefully, miss 'da Gulf!

[KWT]

Yep that seems likely to me hiflyer, at least if that is the case its stopped drifting but the key is how sharp does the turn occur and is there any south of west motion possible with this?

[cpdaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

makin' moves WNW

also you know JAX is the largest city (size wise) in the U.S

[N2Storms]

[quote="KWT"]Yep that seems likely to me hiflyer, at least if that is the case its stopped drifting but the key is how sharp does the turn occur and is there any south of west motion possible with this?[/quote]


IMO they probably had their track positioning correct yesterday...it seems to have a northerly component to the motion and if that persists then it will not make it to the Gulf...

[oyster_reef]

This thing could really bomb out if it were to drop into the GOM with any distance from the coast. Very warm waters, very favorable atmospheric environment. I agree that it's likely to hug the coast (in or out) but the potential is there for a disaster.

[NOLA 30N90W]

It's not going to "miss" the Gulf. It may be in the Gulf for only a brief period, but it will not miss it altogether.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Im gonna Guess West at 8 for the 2PM..

[Clipper96]

With an eye that big, Fay will hardly weaken (further) at all going back across Florida - the western eyewall will be hitting the Gulf not much after the right side moves in.

[Sabanic]

Im gonna Guess West at 8 for the 2PM..

My thinking also D5, but we'll have to wait and see

[N2Storms]

[quote="NOLA 30N90W"]It's not going to "miss" the Gulf. It may be in the Gulf for only a brief period, but it will not miss it altogether.[/quote]



You may be right but really what I was implying was that IMO it will not traverse the Gulf...I'm just going on my GUT instinct ( and believe me, I have a pretty fair sized gut)...

[NFLnut]

Im gonna Guess West at 8 for the 2PM..

I concur.

For a storm that has hardly moved for two days, it's starting to boogie west, and it's about time!

[Emmett_Brown]

St Augustine officially reporting NE 40 G to 53, Baro 29.55"

[wxman57]

The center appears to be on the coast near or just north of Flagler Beach now. Maybe 29.5N/81.1W. Possibly a tad north of 29.5N.

[NOLA 30N90W]

Im gonna Guess West at 8 for the 2PM..

I would say that is pretty close, no more than 8 though. Radar images are the best view for estimating direction and speed. All satellite views are/can be deceptive, even visible....."optical illusions".

[Emmett_Brown]

Amazingly, still offshore, and hasnt moved very much:

URNT12 KNHC 211658
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062008
A. 21/16:00:50Z
B. 29 deg 26 min N
080 deg 49 min W
C. 850 mb 1380 m
D. 50 kt
E. 328 deg 057 nm
F. 062 deg 058 kt
G. 328 deg 055 nm
H. 995 mb
I. 015 C/ 1524 m
J. 018 C/ 1520 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 2606A FAY OB 03
MAX FL WIND 58 KT NW QUAD 15:43:50 Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 57 KT SE QUAD 1616Z

[wxman57]

Im gonna Guess West at 8 for the 2PM..

I would say that is pretty close, no more than 8 though. Radar images are the best view for estimating direction and speed. All satellite views are/can be deceptive, even visible....."optical illusions".

The radar center is expanding outward a good bit faster than it's moving. So you can't judge forward speed by using the edge or the heavy precip.

[artist]

He is still doing fine. I am really surprised, getting alot of wind howling, thunder, lightning and it is pouring and he is just laying on his pillow under his blanket. And it is just oging to get worse here tonite and tomorrow. Normally he would be under my feet, panting and shaking like a leaf. Think I will be buying stock in dryer sheets.

How's your pup doing today? ( I know he may be full grown - just my term of endearment)

[tolakram]