ATL: IKE Discussion

[keithy joe]

Main tornado watch times combined with strongest gust swathe will be between 3am -7am (6am) peak - So stay extra safe between these times. I'm assuming it's 22.10 in the states right now, it's 4.10am here in the UK

[6SpeedTA95]

I was curious, usually storms tend to weaken when approaching the coast but this one seems to be strengthening could a strong cat. 2 strengthening to a Cat. 3 be more damaging wind wise then a weakening Cat. 4 to strong cat. 3 making landfall? thanks.

In theory yes it could. A strengthening 3 at 115mph could do more damage then a weakening four at 135mph because in many cases a strengthening hurricane has much higher gusts than a weakening hurricane and its those gusts that can do a tremendous amount of structure damage.

[fasterdisaster]

Still 110 on this advisory, has 2 more hours to become Cat 3, so one advisory.

From the NHC Discussion:

IKE STILL HAS ABOUT A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
INTO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE. EQUALLY IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...IS THE
EFFECT THAT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HAVE ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
WIND DATA FROM LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES
INDICATE THAT WINDS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...115 KT OR 130 MPH
...EXIST JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE A
REPEAT OF DAMAGE TO WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE STRUCTURES SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED DURING HURRICANE ALICIA IN 1983. THE PEAK WIND SPEED AND
VARIOUS WIND RADII WERE HELD HIGHER THAN OUR INLAND WIND DECAY
MODELS ARE PREDICTING DUE TO THE MUCH LARGER SIZE OF IKE.

Oh, okay, but if he's 30 miles offshore he'd have to move 5 mph to have 6 hours?

[CajunMama]

Someone was swept out to sea from Corpus Christi and declared dead by the Coast Guard...didn't catch the whole story.

Is this the first US Ike-related death?

Two people evacing from lake charles were killed in a wreck on the I-10 atchafalaya basin bridge earlier today.

http://tinyurl.com/3r7wgc

[capepoint]

geraldo says his handheld device recording gusts well over 100 now.

[jinftl]

the cat 4 or 5 surge will be the biggest source of serious damage and devastation if this plays out as they are saying...inland areas will get there bad conditions too...but trees and powerlines vs. buildings wiped out and swept away

I was curious, usually storms tend to weaken when approaching the coast but this one seems to be strengthening could a strong cat. 2 strengthening to a Cat. 3 be more damaging wind wise then a weakening Cat. 4 to strong cat. 3 making landfall? thanks.

In theory yes it could. A strengthening 3 at 115mph could do more damage then a weakening four at 135mph because in many cases a strengthening hurricane has much higher gusts than a weakening hurricane and its those gusts that can do a tremendous amount of structure damage.

[JtSmarts]

117 Mph Gust Where Geraldo is!

[capepoint]

117 mph gust on geraldovision just now.

[THead]

I gassed up this evening (had to, was on empty). The price was $3.59, the same as yesterday, and there was only one other person getting gas. Panic isn't everywhere.

When I came home from work this afternoon, there were massive lines at my gas station, price for low grade was $3.65

I just went to fill up, low grade was $3.99, line was alot shorter.......

Jefferson, Ga 60 miles NE of Atlanta


Re Ike, he now looks about as powerful as he has looked through his entire Gulf trek. Really not liking the combination of landfall and high tide coming up early this morning...

[fasterdisaster]

His outflow has just gotten crazy over the last 3 hours or so, looks like he stuck his finger in a light socket.

http://i38.tinypic.com/ienyiv.gif

He also realllllllly wants to be a Category 3

Those recon dropsondes saying there are 130 mph winds a few hundred feet above ground really indicate he's strengthening. If he had done this 8-12 hours earlier he'd likely be a upper Category 3 to Category 4.

Edited by CM to take out [img] tags. Please remember to do that.

[mtm4319]

Still 110 on this advisory, has 2 more hours to become Cat 3, so one advisory.

From the NHC Discussion:

IKE STILL HAS ABOUT A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
INTO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE. EQUALLY IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...IS THE
EFFECT THAT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HAVE ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
WIND DATA FROM LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES
INDICATE THAT WINDS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...115 KT OR 130 MPH
...EXIST JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE A
REPEAT OF DAMAGE TO WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE STRUCTURES SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED DURING HURRICANE ALICIA IN 1983. THE PEAK WIND SPEED AND
VARIOUS WIND RADII WERE HELD HIGHER THAN OUR INLAND WIND DECAY
MODELS ARE PREDICTING DUE TO THE MUCH LARGER SIZE OF IKE.

Oh, okay, but if he's 30 miles offshore he'd have to move 5 mph to have 6 hours?

The advisory says 55 miles offshore, and moving at 12mph... I'd say it's probably closer to 4 hours until landfall.

[6SpeedTA95]

the cat 4 or 5 surge will be the biggest source of serious damage and devastation if this plays out as they are saying...inland areas will get there bad conditions too...but trees and powerlines vs. buildings wiped out and swept away

I was curious, usually storms tend to weaken when approaching the coast but this one seems to be strengthening could a strong cat. 2 strengthening to a Cat. 3 be more damaging wind wise then a weakening Cat. 4 to strong cat. 3 making landfall? thanks.

In theory yes it could. A strengthening 3 at 115mph could do more damage then a weakening four at 135mph because in many cases a strengthening hurricane has much higher gusts than a weakening hurricane and its those gusts that can do a tremendous amount of structure damage.

Oh yeah absolutely this storm surge is absurd for a "cat2" storm.

[gboudx]

Was that our Jeff Lidner on KHOU just now talking about the flooding? I didn't catch the last name, but his first name was Jeff and his voice sounded familiar. Anyone confirm?

[jinftl]

As of 10pm CDT

HOUSTON BUSH N38G52
HOUSTON HOBBY N36G51
PEARLAND N35G54
PORT ARTHUR NE41G52

[mettski]

117 mph gust on geraldovision just now.

link please?

[Jessie]

Geraldo on seawall....'if people only knew to listen to the projections'....waves crashing over seawall...wall in tact though

When the media stays, but the public is required to go, it makes you wonder how dangerous it really is. I think that when they say "all will die who stays" and certain people "in the know " are not leaving it makes others feel they are not being told the entire story. Maybe that's why some people do stay -- they've seen this time and time again.

But what I don't understand is right this minute Fox news says the eye is coming over Galveston in just a few minutes--- however Geraldo is standing outside next to the beach. I thought the surge comes in just before the eye. I'm very confused. Why is he outside -- he is not steady, but where's the surge? Why is he standing on the beach? Don't you think that this confuses the people who are asked to evacuate- it sure confuses me.

[Sonica]

People, shut up about the gas. It is soooo off topic and nobody should care about that tonight, anyways. Go to the right thread if you feel the need!

[jinftl]

geraldo's wind gadget

117 mph gust on geraldovision just now.

link please?

[fasterdisaster]

That levee in Plaquemines that was extremely weakened by Gustav finally burst from Ike.

[I-wall]

Does anyone know where we can get live buoy data? Looking to find what the tide level are right around Port Arthur, Tx.