ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Sal Collaziano]

Yup. I was having second thoughts about posting it up. :o

sal was making a point... a valid point at that... lots and lots of -removed- going on here... floridians insist the ridge breaks down and texans insist that it builds in west.... my honest opinion is NOLA still....

[rtd2]

there may not be a GUSTAV if this thing hangs around the mountains much longer

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro

120 hours



140

[TSmith274]

12Z Euro

120 hours



140

Those of you who wonder what the worst case scenario is... that's it right there.

[Wx_Warrior]

And by the looks of things, Florida is on deck Season well into October this year.

[x-y-no]

Those of you who wonder what the worst case scenario is... that's it right there.

No kidding. Talk about a one-two punch!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nothing official, but all the models are safely East of Texas, just as I expected. Unofficially, trend East could continue, near NOLA to A'p'cola, Florida.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Japanese model from AccuWX PPV model site- just West of New Orleans, travelling to the NW Tuesday morning.

[Bellarose]

And by the looks of things, Florida is on deck Season well into October this year.

Can you explain this, please? How Florida is on deck?

Thanks!

[mascpa]

Bella - the model shows a tropical cyclone east of Florida headed west, with a second tropical cyclone farther out in the Atlantic, also moving west.

[Bellarose]

Bella - the model shows a tropical cyclone east of Florida headed west, with a second tropical cyclone farther out in the Atlantic, also moving west.

Yikes! Thanks for the explanation and I'll keep myself parked right here on S2K!

[Nederlander]

Is this a tad bit of a shift back west ?

[Stormcenter]

Is this a tad bit of a shift back west ?

I like that purple colored model.

[Wx_Warrior]

Not for GFDL...it was a tad west of NOLA earlier...Louisiana looks to be the flavor of the day.

[Stormcenter]

Is this a tad bit of a shift back west ?

Who knows.

[BigB0882]

Is this a tad bit of a shift back west ?

That was my original thought but now I am not sure. I've looked at so many models that they are all running together!! If it did go back West then it wasn't by much and keeps the same general area under the gun.

[dwg71]

even the hwrf has a sharp nne turn at the end. I really think it's about as much of a consensous that you are going to have at this point. BAMM suite probably not real realiable now. No more than nogaps.

[Wx_Warrior]

BTW...Nothing changes for NHC 4pm track...Still NOLA...maybe a pinch east.

[Stormcenter]

BTW...Nothing changes for NHC 4pm track...Still NOLA...maybe a pinch east.

Yes I agree.

[Wx_Warrior]

Interesting that NHC track does not have a landfall with 4pm track.