ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[HurricaneQueen]

Can someone please tell me where I should post a question about a specific area and forecasting from the pros here? I am co-chair of the beach restoration on Cape San Blas, Florida. I obviously am concerned about Fay's track. I also have a new webcam on the house here, which is 1000 feet from the active restoration point. We don't have ABS on it yet (my husband was bringing it down tomorrow but now he's waiting to see if we're stopped or delayed). I don't want to post a link unless that's approrpriate either. Anyway, where can I ask for professional opinions on what we'll see here? I do the blog for our restoration project and people will begin to ask me questions about what will happen and I want to be informed. I apologize if this is not where I should post. Thanks in advance for any asssitance. Laurel

The best place to ask questions of the Pro Mets is in the Tropical Analysis Forum.

Good Luck,
Lynn

[wxman57]

00Z consensus models haven't budged much. Just a clip of the NE Gulf and Fay's Mississippi-bound:

[TideJoe]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

from this perspective, Fay seems to be caught in a sweeze-play from the NE dry air moving in and another from the NW pushing in across the plains. the gulf may be the path of least resistance, at least in the short term.... NOT A PRO... Just an observation.

Almost looks to be drifting east? At some point, you have to think she is going to start drifting S or SW....... a lot less resistance in that direction.

[Emmett_Brown]

Yeah, but Fay hasnt budged much either...

[terrapintransit]

00Z consensus models haven't budged much. Just a clip of the NE Gulf and Fay's Mississippi-bound:

I think it's safe to say she is going for another swim

[DanKellFla]

I.....give.....up!

[Ivanhater]

Im a bit worried about the rainfall totals here in Pcola Wxman, Just got another campus email saying college might not start back up on monday cause of flooding, do you have any computer modeling showing rainfall totals?

[Brent]

00Z consensus models haven't budged much. Just a clip of the NE Gulf and Fay's Mississippi-bound:

LOL at some of those, very weird tracks.

[fasterdisaster]

This is utterly ridiculous.

I feel like none of us know a single thing about tropical systems after this. Is there any climatological law Fay HASN'T broken? Just when we think she's finally moving she gives up.

[latemodel25]

will be a very interesting forecast in the am as faye is on a westbound track clearly headed toward the gulf of mexico. wouldnt surprise me in the least tomorrow 2 see our friends in la/tx get this as anywhere from a subtropical system to a poss cat 1. despite the jokes she really does like water she just is a slow swimmer...we 'll see the crow eating round sundayish...

[tolakram]

Gainesville, FL

Fay should get there in a few days...

[sphelps8681]

00Z consensus models haven't budged much. Just a clip of the NE Gulf and Fay's Mississippi-bound:

I think it's safe to say she is going for another swim

And she ain't no Michael Phelps either...

It's funny I am married to Michael Phelps a retired professional boxer from the Beaumont/Lumberton area. I have been getting are you related to the Michael Phelps the swimmer ever since the Olympics have started.

[terrapintransit]

00Z consensus models haven't budged much. Just a clip of the NE Gulf and Fay's Mississippi-bound:

LOL at some of those, very weird tracks.

Looks like she could possibly make 2 more landfalls...

[CrazyC83]

And she ain't no Michael Phelps either...

It's funny I am married to Michael Phelps a retired professional boxer from the Beaumont/Lumberton area. I have been getting are you related to the Michael Phelps the swimmer ever since the Olympics have started.

The speed Fay is moving, she'd be laughed at if she tried to swim in the Olympics. They swim a lot faster than 2 mph.

[Frank P]

Storm2K posters are exhibiting early stages of extreme Fayfatigue

[baygirl_1]

Im a bit worried about the rainfall totals here in Pcola Wxman, Just got another campus email saying college might not start back up on monday cause of flooding, do you have any computer modeling showing rainfall totals?

I'm very interested in seeing those models, too, though I'm over in Mobile. Our school has had drainage problems ever since it was built several years ago. I think tomorrow may be spent moving things up. And then home to pray our post-Katrina roof doesn't leak!

[Steve]

For you guys wondering about rainfall, try the hydrometeorological prediction center brought to you by your friends at NCEP.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

[latemodel25]

we shall see if shes a phelps or not, my analysis says no but shes definately a wanna be. la will def feel some effects if she continues to be such a turtle.

[cpdaman]

look at the 3 hour trends on the 500-850 mb maps, there is a bit of an upper level high in the central gulf which appears to have some sort of reflection now at the lower levels (500-850) mb. the steering around this would of course be NW to SE, so perhaps this is why she seems stuck again.

perhaps this is a contributing factor

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

upper level high built down a bit , based on the fact it has had an increased reflection over the last 6 hours over the central gulf.

[wxman57]

WXMN57 you do realize that just about 20 miles South of that line is some open water til next landfall don't you? I wouldn't bank on model accuracy being that great.

And your point? I just posted a plot of the models, not what I was forecasting. I do agree with that consensus. Fay will certainly be close enough to the Gulf to draw in moisture on its south side, probably maintaining TD or even minimal TS status through Saturday, despite the NHC trying to kill it off in 12 hours.