ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[tpr1967]

A 597 dm ridge near bermuda. Check for yourselves. Seems pretty strong to me.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soundin ... STNM=78016

[artist]

A 597 dm ridge near bermuda. Check for yourselves. Seems pretty strong to me.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soundin ... STNM=78016

can you interpret that for me please!

[tpr1967]

Well the 18z run of the GFS only shows 594 at 0000Z. So it is under estimating the 500mb ridge.

[x-y-no]

are there other models juming on boards with the GFS deep layer trough solution?

Well, troughs will always come along eventually. But as far as I'm aware, it's only the GFS that traps Ike long enough to have that turn him into the western coast of the Florida peninsula. I wouldn't fret much about that possibility yet.

[x-y-no]

A 597 dm ridge near bermuda. Check for yourselves. Seems pretty strong to me.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soundin ... STNM=78016

I don't think there's much debate about there being a very strong ridge. The issue is whether it's tilted in front of Ike strongly enough to steer him as far south as a number of the models say - I don't think it looks like that. I don't see Ike doing more than grazing the northern coast of Cuba.

[HouTXmetro]

WSW Motion appears to have started.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102848&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=1260

[amawea]

Thanks for the link to an excellent site Timeflow.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Water vapor loop

The trough to the Northeast and ridge on top seem to be following Ike. Note also the protective Wsterlies remain well established over all but extreme South Texas.

[Blown Away]

Water vapor loop

The trough to the Northeast and ridge on top seem to be following Ike. Note also the protective Wsterlies remain well established over all but extreme South Texas.

Ed do you think the hurricane season is pretty much over with for Texas?

[wxman57]

Thanks for the link to an excellent site Timeflow.

I notice their error cone is incorrect, like the cones on S2K. The error cone is actually a series of circles representing the 66.6% 5-year error at each forecast point. The day 5 error is a circle about 750 miles across. So the end point of the cone is a circle, it's not a flat line. The error can be nearly 400 miles ahead of the 5-day point, too.

[Blown Away]

Thanks for the link to an excellent site Timeflow.

I notice their error cone is incorrect, like the cones on S2K. The error cone is actually a series of circles representing the 66.6% 5-year error at each forecast point. The day 5 error is a circle about 750 miles across. So the end point of the cone is a circle, it's not a flat line. The error can be nearly 400 miles ahead of the 5-day point, too.

Wxman57, would you say at this point the probability of Ike landfalling on Florida's east coast from Homestead N is very low?

[boca]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

I'm starting to think that S FL mainland will be spared from Ike.That high is too strong for Ike to turn NW south of Florida but it will make it into the GOM and be a NGOM problem eventually.

[MississippiHurricane]

How can you be so sure its headed for Texas? IMO its still way to early to call that yet. NO ONE is out of the woods yet and we all know how fast things DO change. Everyone just needs to watch this over the next few days and just make sure you have all of your supplies ready to go just in case.

[Evil Jeremy]

Burn1, I am going to tell you the same thing that everyone is being told tonight. No one is safe yet. No one is in the clear. Such statments are misleading.

[Stratosphere747]

Could be a decent shift to the S and W at 10.

[SouthFLTropics]

All this tracking of Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and now Ike has worn me out. I guess it has caught up to me because now I'm sick ...I guess I should get some rest tonight and let the model and wobble watching go to others. Hopefully Ike will continue to go South under us and I won't have to worry about getting preps ready on Sunday/Monday.

SFT

[Ed Mahmoud]

How can you be so sure its headed for Texas? IMO its still way to early to call that yet. NO ONE is out of the woods yet and we all know how fast things DO change. Everyone just needs to watch this over the next few days and just make sure you have all of your supplies ready to go just in case.

I did not call for this to come anywhere near Texas.

[thetruesms]

Well the 18z run of the GFS only shows 594 at 0000Z. So it is under estimating the 500mb ridge.

Bermuda is well within the 594 dm isopleth, so I would find it more likely that it is higher than 594 dm. All I can tell for sure is that it there is not a large enough area of 600 dm heights to warrant drawing a 600 isopleth. Without seeing the value of the grid point nearest Bermuda, it may very well have predicted a 597 dm height. In the end, a 3 dm underestimation is still only on the order of 10^-3, and is likely negligible.

[zeusman]

Water vapor loop

The trough to the Northeast and ridge on top seem to be following Ike. Note also the protective Wsterlies remain well established over all but extreme South Texas.

Protective westerlies?? Protecting where from what?

You can note from this WV loop that ridge axis is beginning a tilt from southwest to northeast orientation (not due north and south)

[haml8]

Me say a Galveston landing with ridging builing back up over midwest.....

Silence!!!!! We'll have none of that prognosticating here!! j/k