ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[fasterdisaster]

slow down a bit?

I think he means to let the convection catch up with the LLC - it seems to be moving faster than the convection can wrap around it, though the radar signature is starting to look better and better.

Yes that's what I meant

[Bailey1777]

Is recon still finding winds that support a tropical storm?

[Bailey1777]

While convection coverage is dying there does seem to be some trying to get close to the center.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Is recon still finding winds that support a tropical storm?

Nope only 36 knots.that supports 32.9 knots at the surface at .9 reduce. So if none is found higher then this is now a depression. Unless things change.

[Bailey1777]

Matt do you think Ed is in real trouble or just a lull?

[Bailey1777]

Radar seems to be showing several storm growing in the vicinity.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Matt do you think Ed is in real trouble or just a lull?

I believe it is dealing with strong northly shear that is forcing all the convection to its south. But believe that will weaken by tomarrow afternoon to allow to start strengthing. But first it has to make it; I believe it will make it, so it can get into the "close to land space" as I call it that is more favorable, that also can tighten systems up because of the fiction of the land. So it is still possible this could pull a humberto.

[Texashawk]

Matt do you think Ed is in real trouble or just a lull?

I believe it is dealing with strong northly shear that is forcing all the convection to its south. But believe that will weaken by tomarrow afternoon to allow to start strengthing. But first it has to make it; I believe it will make it, so it can get into the "close to land space" as I call it that is more favorable, that also can tighten systems up because of the fiction of the land. So it is still possible this could pull a humberto.

Hmm. This is the first I've heard of any significant northerly shear. Even though the winds may be decreasing, overall in both satellite and radar presentation Ed (to me, at least) seems to be looking more 'classic' than it did as a 45 KT TS.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Matt do you think Ed is in real trouble or just a lull?

I believe it is dealing with strong northly shear that is forcing all the convection to its south. But believe that will weaken by tomarrow afternoon to allow to start strengthing. But first it has to make it; I believe it will make it, so it can get into the "close to land space" as I call it that is more favorable, that also can tighten systems up because of the fiction of the land. So it is still possible this could pull a humberto.

Hmm. This is the first I've heard of any significant northerly shear. Even though the winds may be decreasing, overall in both satellite and radar presentation Ed (to me, at least) seems to be looking more 'classic' than it did as a 45 KT TS.

See that shear screaming down from the north on the shear map. That is what is killing this system.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[Normandy]

Well, looking at Edouard tonight I believe it won't become a hurricane. The storm's center is so far displaced from any convection that it would be VERY hard for it to consolidate. And since the low level center is so close to land, that should also inhibit any type of rapid deepening. People have been talking about a center reformation, and I see no chance of that really happening. Look at Edouard's center, it is VERY defined and its not gonna dissipate and reform under any convection...the greatest vorticity is where this low level center is, and convection will have to fire over that center, not the other way around.

[Texashawk]

See that shear screaming down from the north on the shear map. That is what is killing this system.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Interesting. Surprised the NHC didn't mention it.

[xironman]

I when I read the map it looked like about 10 knots, looks like more on the loops though.

[RL3AO]

1004 mb and dropping.

[xironman]

I would not give up on it yet. The convection to the south seems to be pulling it in a slight south of west course, and at the same time convection is starting to refire on the eastern side http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-89&zoom=1&palette=spect.pal&type=Animation&numframes=12&quality=90. Could have a real different look in a few hours.

[SapphireSea]

The environment should continue to be marginally favorable for the system, so slow strengthening can be expected. There's actually a little bit of drier air and more stable air to the West of the center, but nothing too demolishing and should still be marginally favorable if it's just the subsidence from the storm itself. I would not be surprised to see a little southward displacement of the center though; which would place the system in a better spot, this is what I could speculate.

[Bailey1777]

Sat. showing convection firing just East of center.

[RL3AO]

1002mb from dropsonde.

[jhamps10]

just right where I'd figure it to me when I seen the 1004 and falling.

[RL3AO]

That first VDM must have been bad because this hasn't dropped 4mb in 2 hours.

[Bailey1777]

Ed is tracking slightly south of NHC track.