ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[captain east]

I thought a anti-cyclone would be a bad thing... Too bad.

[wxwonder12]

thank you Gatorcane

[Bocadude85]

I thought a anti-cyclone would be a bad thing... Too bad.

no a anti-cyclone is a ridge of high pressure which is favorable for development.

[gatorcane]

Derek, probably dumb question but what does that last comment that you made mean. thanks

means we will be dealing with a VERY LARGE storm. Global models indicated this

Large indeed. The Euro has been consistent with something large but Derek -- this anticyclone is going to be replaced by some strong Northerly shear down the road which would keep Hanna from becoming too strong I hope right?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

One thing that might hold this down is if Gustav becomes a cat5 over the gulf. Any system to the east or northeast of a powerful cyclone has to deal with its shear.

Do you agree Derek?

[Philly12]

Derek, any thoughts on the models today. Is it a case of the GFS's northerly bias or a real weakness?

[Lifesgud2]

Gatorcane/ Derek

Ok..Guys. Whats going to be with this storm. Its unbelievable how the models are all over the place. Is this going to be a cane, or fizzle. the NHC has this as a storm until thursday.

[Bocadude85]

Derek, any thoughts on the models today. Is it a case of the GFS's northerly bias or a real weakness?

lol the models will probably be south of Florida again tomorrow.. have to get some recon data into them before we really get a handle on whats going on

[bahamaswx]

Looks like a disorganized mess now, but she's definitely trying to wrap up. I can't see much more than only slow improvements in structure over the next day or two.

[captain east]

Derek, any thoughts on the models today. Is it a case of the GFS's northerly bias or a real weakness?

lol the models will probably be south of Florida again tomorrow.. have to get some recon data into them before we really get a handle on whats going on

Is recon flying into Hanna tomorrow?

[HURAKAN]

Is recon flying into Hanna tomorrow?

Yes.

TROPICAL STORM HANNA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76
A. 31/1600Z
B. AFXXX 0108A HANNA
C. 31/1230Z
D. 23.0N 70.0W
E. 31/1500Z TO 31/1900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[jlauderdal]

And there is a huge anti-cyclone building over Hanna.

it is likely to take up a large part of the subtropical western Atlantic in the coming days. Should be much larger than Gustav (and Gustav is becoming a very large storm itself)

translation, high pressure over tropical systems means intensification

[Blown Away]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
301 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...

WED-SAT...HANNA FCST TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WED/THU...
AND BEYOND THEN IT`S REALLY ANYONE`S GUESS. LATEST 12Z GFS STALLS
HANNA BEFORE IT REACHES THE BAHAMAS AND TURNS IT SHARPLY NW TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS. CYCLONE SHOULD STILL BE EXPERIENCING SOME SHEAR
WED... BUT BEYOND THEN...WE`RE REALLY THROWING DARTS AS TO WHAT
KIND OF SHAPE HANNA WILL BE IN. EVENTUALLY THE CYCLONE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHWARD SOMEWHERE NEARBY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH ERODES THE WRN
PORTION OF THE STRONG ERN CONUS- WRN ATLC RIDGE. WILL KEEP GENERAL
STATUS QUO THRU THU...FOLLOWING OFFICIAL NHC/HPC FORECAST WHICH
BRINGS HANNA UP THE FL WEST COAST. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...CONFIDENCE
IN THE FCST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK IS LOW.

[Bocadude85]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
301 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...

WED-SAT...HANNA FCST TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WED/THU...
AND BEYOND THEN IT`S REALLY ANYONE`S GUESS. LATEST 12Z GFS STALLS
HANNA BEFORE IT REACHES THE BAHAMAS AND TURNS IT SHARPLY NW TOWARD
THE CAROLINAS. CYCLONE SHOULD STILL BE EXPERIENCING SOME SHEAR
WED... BUT BEYOND THEN...WE`RE REALLY THROWING DARTS AS TO WHAT
KIND OF SHAPE HANNA WILL BE IN. EVENTUALLY THE CYCLONE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHWARD SOMEWHERE NEARBY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH ERODES THE WRN
PORTION OF THE STRONG ERN CONUS- WRN ATLC RIDGE. WILL KEEP GENERAL
STATUS QUO THRU THU...FOLLOWING OFFICIAL NHC/HPC FORECAST WHICH
BRINGS HANNA UP THE FL WEST COAST. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...CONFIDENCE
IN THE FCST FOR LATE NEXT WEEK IS LOW.

up the west coast????

[ericinmia]

LOL i didn't even catch that reading it...

[ericinmia]

I guess he is talking about the HPC forecasts that bring hanna up the west coast.

[Bocadude85]

Intresting.. who knows maybe that is what she will do..

[johngaltfla]

FL West coast? In these warm waters?

Oh carp.

God help the Gulf of Mexico. This is starting to look like 2005 all over again.

[Blown Away]

WOW, is this going to be a giant circulation. Was it the EURO that was predicting the massive size of Hanna. Amazing!!

[greels]

WOW, is this going to be a giant circulation. Was it the EURO that was predicting the massive size of Hanna. Amazing!!

Yup, and it's going to be knocking at my door in the not too distant future