ATL: IKE Discussion

[AtlanticWind]

1.What are the possiblilities of a Donna or West Coast scenario?

Crystal ball question. I live in the Donna track and I'm not worried since the consensus is solid on a lift north near Florida. There's an evolving ridge scenario ahead that is very hard to judge in advance. However Hanna is going right where NHC said it would, so this should make the prior to Florida curve more credible.

Even the GFDL curves up after dipping down towards Cuba. I interpret the 06Z GFDL as recurving up in front of Florida and staying offshore.


Disclaimer: Info is from an internet website poster and not based on any scientific background or knowledge.

Thr problem is the turn could come earlier or later . to early to forecast now.

[jlauderdal]

FWIW to folks in this area once again this morning Dr. Bill Williams at USA stressed the importance of everyone along the Gulf Coast to keep an eye on Ike. He said timing would be everything, and that he felt there was a strong possibility still that Ike could enter the GOM.

would love to know what modeling he is looking at to come up with that solution

[boca]

I think a lot of what Ike does is on Hanna's shoulders.If Hanna stays in the shape its in now.Ike might continue westward further thus closing up the gap sooner.Its still early in the game.I wonder what Derek Ortt will say in his analysis forecast.

[Sabanic]

FWIW to folks in this area once again this morning Dr. Bill Williams at USA stressed the importance of everyone along the Gulf Coast to keep an eye on Ike. He said timing would be everything, and that he felt there was a strong possibility still that Ike could enter the GOM.

would love to know what modeling he is looking at to come up with that solution

Hey j I don't believe he is coming to a solution, but rather moreso trying to let people know that we are still five days out, looking at a powerful storm, and wanting people to pay attention to Ike. As we all know things CAN change, and no one needs to be complacent and ignore a storm like this. Even is the models are showing otherwise at the present time.

[robbielyn]

what size storm does this compare to? Charlie? That is one good thing especially if this stays off the coast of fl. I live on the west side so again we could be on the dry side getting dry subsidence filtering down from the ne. Although i have to say, I am hating the 92 degree weather. Tampa still has their shield working at a 100%. With it being compact like it is woe for the target but good for the rest of us.

[Sanibel]

One thing that could cause worry is the pattern that caused Gus to take the unusual NW then WNW track could still be roughly there and cause Ike to go more west than the synoptic might otherwise suggest. Maybe this is what the doctor is considering? We finally had some good east winds here lately so the west wind pattern could be gone along with the strange track pattern that went along with it.


Disclaimer: Totally primitive meteorology above. At your own risk.

[boca]

FWIW to folks in this area once again this morning Dr. Bill Williams at USA stressed the importance of everyone along the Gulf Coast to keep an eye on Ike. He said timing would be everything, and that he felt there was a strong possibility still that Ike could enter the GOM.

would love to know what modeling he is looking at to come up with that solution

Does Dr. Williams have access to models that are unclassified because its way early to say if its a GOM threat or even a Florida threat right now.

[Dean4Storms]

There is no certainty with Ike in 5 days and beyond, the models often under-estimate ridges and we've seen them time and time again get it wrong and trend further and further west. They had Fay going up the east coast and out to sea and we all know that never happened. I know things were different with Fay but 5 days out things could very well be different with Ike.

[cycloneye]

TPOD for Hurricane Ike.First mission will be on early friday morning by NOAA followed by Air Force that departs at 11:30 AM EDT:


HURRICANE IKE
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43 DEPART AT 05/0800A FOR A
RESEARCH MISSION 0109A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0209A IKE
C. 05/1530Z
D. 24.0N 62.6W
E. 05/1700Z TO 05/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGT THREE -- NOAA 42 DEPART AT 05/2000Z FOR A
RESEARCH MISSION 0309A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 71
A. 06/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0409A IKE
C. 06/0400Z
D. 23.4N 64.9W
E. 06/0500Z TO 06/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 43 DEPART AT 06/0900Z FOR A
RESEARCH MISSION 0509A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT.

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NEGATIVE ON HANNA.
BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON HURRICANE IKE AT 06/1800Z. A G-IV
MISSION FOR 07/0000Z. NOAA WP-3'S CONTINUE RESEARCH
MISSIONS INTO IKE EVERY 12 HRS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[Blown Away]

I know that Dr. Bill Williams at the University of South Alabama is very concerned about the possibilty of Ike entering the GOM. He stated such this morning.

It's always interesting to get other points of view. Did he have scientific data to support Ike in the GOM or was it just a gut feeling? Give some detail on the discussion.

[KWT]

Well its just too early to know with Ike, but reemmber what /derek said, a stronger system is more prone to last longer on a W/WSW motion, makes perfect sense given the high is stronger at the upper levels then it is at lower levels, I think given its quite possible Ike remains a major hurricane its more likely to follow a ECM type track, I think the GFDL may be a little too far south but who knows!

[jlauderdal]

FWIW to folks in this area once again this morning Dr. Bill Williams at USA stressed the importance of everyone along the Gulf Coast to keep an eye on Ike. He said timing would be everything, and that he felt there was a strong possibility still that Ike could enter the GOM.

would love to know what modeling he is looking at to come up with that solution

Hey j I don't believe he is coming to a solution, but rather moreso trying to let people know that we are still five days out, looking at a powerful storm, and wanting people to pay attention to Ike. As we all know things CAN change, and no one needs to be complacent and ignore a storm like this. Even is the models are showing otherwise at the present time.

ok maybe not a solution but a strong possibility as you stated, he must see something that leads him to this, i doubt he is shooting from the hip

[robbielyn]

sabanic do you have a link to bill's discussion?

[CourierPR]

Maybe Dr. Williams has similar thoughts as Derek regarding track evolution. He has the doctorate so he must have some scientific reasoning.

[deltadog03]

Well its just too early to know with Ike, but reemmber what /derek said, a stronger system is more prone to last longer on a W/WSW motion, makes perfect sense given the high is stronger at the upper levels then it is at lower levels, I think given its quite possible Ike remains a major hurricane its more likely to follow a ECM type track, I think the GFDL may be a little too far south but who knows!

BINGO...This IMO is why the GFS recurves this quickly.. I know globals should not be trusted to show a true intensity, not there intended purpose, but come on GFS...You have a cat4 and show it barely a storm....

[robbielyn]

maybe he is just being a good met and stating that everyone needs to be on guard til we know where this thing is going. trending towards the east isn't 100% guaranteed just yet. See if he would sound the all clear then most people who dont follow weather would totally dismiss it and go on about their daily life. they are not hooked on these things like we are watching their every move. So he just wants people to still keep ike in the back of their minds and get prepared. that's my guess anyways. No one knows what Ike will do yet as Jeff Masters said yesterday. What humility. Just the opposite of JB

[Sabanic]

FWIW to folks in this area once again this morning Dr. Bill Williams at USA stressed the importance of everyone along the Gulf Coast to keep an eye on Ike. He said timing would be everything, and that he felt there was a strong possibility still that Ike could enter the GOM.

would love to know what modeling he is looking at to come up with that solution

Does Dr. Williams have access to models that are unclassified because its way early to say if its a GOM threat or even a Florida threat right now.

Boca Ivanhater would be the one to direct that question to. I believe he studied under him at some time.

[jlauderdal]

Maybe Dr. Williams has similar thoughts as Derek regarding track evolution. He has the doctorate so he must have some scientific reasoning.

exactly, so let the good doctor BRING IT, we can benefit from his insight maybe...i was told yesterday by another board member he doesnt post his thoughts, only his meterology class and some others get it, kind of like the fsu superensemble, lovely isnt it considering tax dollars but thats a whole other subject so lets stay on topic

[KWT]

Just reading a post on another forum but Ike was the 2nd fastest pressure drop over 12hrs ever...only behind the legendary Wilma

Anyway still very worried for the Bahamas, unless this bends down as much as the GFDL expects and interacts with Cuba we are likely going to have a major hurricane.

Anyway eye is clearing right back out again, very impressive looking hurricane and still looks like a decent cat-4!!

[smw1981]

Does Dr. Williams have access to models that are unclassified because its way early to say if its a GOM threat or even a Florida threat right now.[/quote]


I'm confused...isn't Ike about 5 days away? Way too early? As Sabanic already explained, Dr. Williams WASN'T saying "This is going into the gulf." He WAS saying that people in the gulf still need to pay attention. You don't need models for that.