ATL: IKE Discussion

[Extremeweatherguy]

^^Downtown Houston^^

[bob rulz]

The mayor of Galveston makes me sick. She botched everything with the evacs, and just now during the press conference she made a comment about one particular area being affected and that it is "47% of our tax base".

That woman has a heart of stone. How could she possibly say such a thing, especially at a time like this?

Maybe the words weren't chosen carefully but that IS relevant information. It's like saying the economy of your city was destroyed.

[CrazyC83]

In addition to the impact areas ongoing, I would think the damage from flooding all throughout the midwest will go into the cost estimates too. IMO, even the 10+ inches of rain in local parts of Illinois already ATTM is mostly because of Ike.

That is correct. They also go into the final death toll if any fatalities are reported.

[Shoshana]

In addition to the impact areas ongoing, I would think the damage from flooding all throughout the midwest will go into the cost estimates too. IMO, even the 10+ inches of rain in local parts of Illinois already ATTM is mostly because of Ike.

No, the rain in IL is from remnents of TS Lowell banging into a cold front. Ike rain will be there soon enough tho

[thetruesms]

In addition to the impact areas ongoing, I would think the damage from flooding all throughout the midwest will go into the cost estimates too. IMO, even the 10+ inches of rain in local parts of Illinois already ATTM is mostly because of Ike.

Actually, it's almost the other way around - the system that's causing the flooding in Illinois through Oklahoma is what influenced the landfall position of Ike. However, should Ike be absorbed into the frontal system, I'm not entirely sure how that would be treated

[thetruesms]

It looks to me like moisture from Ike has already made its way to the midwest.

Perhaps this surface analysis will help - The low over Iowa is responsible for the rain from New York eastward to Iowa, and then southward back through Oklahoma and North Texas. Ike is still over east Texas.

[PurdueWx80]

the heavy rain over the corn belt last night/today is sorta indirectly related to ike. tropical moisture surging ahead of ike pooled along the front overnight, and once a low-level jet developed, very heavy rain fell. some radar estimates indicate over 10 inches in parts of IL and IA. chicago has had more than 6 inches.

the actual remnants of ike will pass through tomorrow, with the axis of heaviest rain slightly further to the south and east. major flooding will be possible where/if tomorrow's heavy rain axis coincides with today's.

also, the front that ike will connect with tomorrow should settle into the gulf next week. i'd watch for low pressure to develop somewhere along it mid- to late week - we're getting into the time of year when tropical systems can develop along fronts in the gulf.

[thetruesms]

the heavy rain over the corn belt last night/today is sorta indirectly related to ike. tropical moisture surging ahead of ike pooled along the front overnight, and once a low-level jet developed, very heavy rain fell. some radar estimates indicate over 10 inches in parts of IL and IA. chicago has had more than 6 inches.

the actual remnants of ike will pass through tomorrow, with the axis of heaviest rain slightly further to the south and east. major flooding will be possible where/if tomorrow's heavy rain axis coincides with today's.

also, the front that ike will connect with tomorrow should settle into the gulf next week. i'd watch for low pressure to develop somewhere along it mid- to late week - we're getting into the time of year when tropical systems can develop along fronts in the gulf.

Sure, Ike pumped moisture ahead, but moisture is nothing without a lifting mechanism. It's not enough to lump damage totals from flooding in the Great Lakes to Ike.

[Deathray]

I think it's going to be almost impossible to get an accurate death toll because I don't think the cities actually knew how many people stuck around... just random estimates

Maybe they'll know how many based on how many try to return and how many are still in those cities... but it'll take a long time

Unless it's like Katrina and we see a lot of body bags being brought in

[CrazyC83]

One question: if the front absorbing Ike detaches in the Atlantic and develops into a tropical cyclone, it becomes a new storm? Or does it remain Ike?

[Mello1]

In addition to the impact areas ongoing, I would think the damage from flooding all throughout the midwest will go into the cost estimates too. IMO, even the 10+ inches of rain in local parts of Illinois already ATTM is mostly because of Ike.

Actually it's not. It's a different system, but probably pushed north because of all of the dynamics.

We get the remnants of Ike late tonight/early Sunday. Of course, I have a flight out of town noon tomorrow.

Probably will be doing the backstroke to O'Hare...

[southerngale]

The town of Gilchrist is "gone".

Is that confirmed? How horrible.
My heart goes out to everyone affected by Ike. This monster caused a lot of damage over such a large area... what a freak of a storm.


I am just in shock at the amount of damage I'm hearing about my area. I knew it would be bad in Galveston and Houston, but I really didn't think it would be this bad over here. Flooding, trees in homes and down all over the place, roof blown off the Jefferson County Courthouse in Beaumont, structural damage to homes and business, downed power lines, scattered debris, NO electricity anywhere in the area, and they're saying to expect it to be out 3-4 weeks.

They're telling citizens do not enter the city. There is no fuel to get back out, no food, no medical help, services, etc. The sewer system has failed. It's a search and rescue at this point.

Beaumont Police reporting possible carbon monoxide poisoning from a generator. A man who stayed tried to back out of his driveway, somehow he accelerated too fast and ran over an elderly woman. Nobody to respond.

[JtSmarts]

So sorry to hear that Southerngale, and MSNBC is reporting "minor" damage to the Beaumont area.

[WxGuy1]

Below is HRD's analysis of the surface winds at the time of landfall. Again, while things were bad in Galveston, they could have been worse still if the eye had made landfall 30-40 miles to the southwest of where it did. Worst winds and surge stayed away from the most populated area, fortunately.

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour08.png

[thetruesms]

That's what I was saying. I understand there was another system, but I think Ike's moisture is making the the rains up this way more severe.

Ike may be contributing moisture to the rain, but it's not the proximate cause of the rains. Thus, you cannot consider damage from those floods as caused by Ike.

One question: if the front absorbing Ike detaches in the Atlantic and develops into a tropical cyclone, it becomes a new storm? Or does it remain Ike?

It would be a new storm.

[thunderchief]

Bolivar is under 10 feet of water or more, even the highest points.

While I am quite sure Bolivar was taken out last night, do you have pictures or a source or is this just based on the same surge expectations we all had?

[thunderchief]

thanks

[Brent]

The town of Gilchrist is "gone".

Is that confirmed? How horrible.
My heart goes out to everyone affected by Ike. This monster caused a lot of damage over such a large area... what a freak of a storm.


I am just in shock at the amount of damage I'm hearing about my area. I knew it would be bad in Galveston and Houston, but I really didn't think it would be this bad over here. Flooding, trees in homes and down all over the place, roof blown off the Jefferson County Courthouse in Beaumont, structural damage to homes and business, downed power lines, scattered debris, NO electricity anywhere in the area, and they're saying to expect it to be out 3-4 weeks.

They're telling citizens do not enter the city. There is no fuel to get back out, no food, no medical help, services, etc. The sewer system has failed. It's a search and rescue at this point.

Beaumont Police reporting possible carbon monoxide poisoning from a generator. A man who stayed tried to back out of his driveway, somehow he accelerated too fast and ran over an elderly woman. Nobody to respond.

I'm so sorry SG. I know how bad Rita was and then to get hit again(and worse?). Plus Humberto and even Edouard...

[Brent]

Is it true that the levee in Port Arthur held? If so, wow.

[jlauderdal]

khou has a helicopter in the air now showing damage, they are heading to the coast