ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[gtsmith]

I was trying to describe to my wife tonight what 92L seems to be going through today/tonight and the best analogy I could come up with was starting my old 1973 BelAir in the deep cold of winter ...you turn the key and the engine would crank...crank....crank...crank...and you really don't think it's gonna turn...then crank...crank...crank...then all of a sudden it cranks over and starts running strong and furious...I feel that is what's going to happen with 92L. The analogy works for me and I came up with a reason to use that funny chillin' smilie face

[jhamps10]

Here's another view of 92L.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

wow it's looking pretty good, all it needs IMO is for the MLC to drop down to the surface and get that convection pimple as we've called it, to expand and get deeper. could this be the night that it goes over the hump and get together? video at 11...

[Recurve]

Great image.

If this develops...still a big if....it looks to be pulled northward.

The convection blob can be 92L's bubble about to burst.
But without killer shear coming, not turning my back until it's absorbed.

[deltadog03]

A couple of things before I head to bed...Long 5 days coming up here. Ok, well obviously I have been pretty bullish on this developing and I still give this about 40% chance of developing. A couple of thoughts looking at the SAT, and the WV tonight. First, we can see the MLC very nicely and its starting to grow with storms. Very slowly, but its a start. 2nd, on the WV, it appears that its slowly pulling away from the ULL that is too its north. The other ULL is pulling away slowly thats near PR. Lastly, I encourage you to go to the NHC site, pick whatever sat image you want to look at, and turn on the Hwinds...(The upper level winds). Notice how ALL day those strong winds were right on top of of the mlc...Now, those winds are out away from the center. Thats why we are seeing the outflow get much better. Ok, and finally...lol Remember the convection SW of the main blob (the one with outh the MLC) ?? Well that area has and is continuing to die off. That tells me that maybe this is finally ready to congeal into one concentrated system/blob. Have a great night everyone!!

[Blown Away]

If 92L & 93L go "poof" there is nothing else in the Atlantic.

[boca]

Here's another view of 92L.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

wow it's looking pretty good, all it needs IMO is for the MLC to drop down to the surface and get that convection pimple as we've called it, to expand and get deeper. could this be the night that it goes over the hump and get together? video at 11...

I does look organized on the sat pic and I want to come back at midnight and see if dmax kicks in because in reality it should expand,but 92L has its own mind made up.

[MGC]

Ya'll need to develope some patients (and I'm not talking to you future doctors)......Watching a TC develope can be like watching grass grow during a drought....its real slow. 92L despite its rather pathetic look might just grow into that Cat-4 monster the GFDL is forecasting, you just never know. I usually don't give up on a system until it evaporates. I've seen them go from one isolated thunderstorm (like now) to a significent TC. Only time will tell what happens here. I don't know how many times I've read "next invest please" for things to radicallly change the next day. Currently, I'd give 92L a 50/50 chance of being named.......MGC

[cycloneye]

A couple of things before I head to bed...Long 5 days coming up here. Ok, well obviously I have been pretty bullish on this developing and I still give this about 40% chance of developing. A couple of thoughts looking at the SAT, and the WV tonight. First, we can see the MLC very nicely and its starting to grow with storms. Very slowly, but its a start. 2nd, on the WV, it appears that its slowly pulling away from the ULL that is too its north. The other ULL is pulling away slowly thats near PR. Lastly, I encourage you to go to the NHC site, pick whatever sat image you want to look at, and turn on the Hwinds...(The upper level winds). Notice how ALL day those strong winds were right on top of of the mlc...Now, those winds are out away from the center. Thats why we are seeing the outflow get much better. Ok, and finally...lol Remember the convection SW of the main blob (the one with the MLC) ?? Well that area has and is continuing to die off. That tells me that maybe this is finally ready to congeal into one concentrated system/blob. Have a great night everyone!!

Good summary there.Have a good night,as sleepless ones are ahead.

[Bocadude85]

Seems to me that the convection is growing and expanding slowly

[Aquawind]

With the intense blob smack dab over the center of the MLC it almost looks more organized than ever..just a lack of widespread convection..maybe a good thing for concentrating and organizing. Persistance beyound 12 hours continues to be an issue.

[HURAKAN]

Great Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 101245.GIF

Original:



Needed for development (fake):

[ConvergenceZone]

If 92L & 93L go "poof" there is nothing else in the Atlantic.

I agree, 92L or 93L might be our only chance to have anything in the Atlantic in August(nothing else out there)....then it's on to September.....

[boca]

With the intense blob smack dab over the center of the MLC it almost looks more organized than ever..just a lack of widespread convection..maybe a good thing for concentrating and organizing. Persistance beyound 12 hours continues to be an issue.

Aquawind you said the one word PERSISTANCE IS THE KEY.

[Scorpion]

If 92L & 93L go "poof" there is nothing else in the Atlantic.

I agree, 92L or 93L might be our only chance to have anything in the Atlantic in August(nothing else out there)....then it's on to September.....

You haven't been paying much attention to the models have you?

[jhamps10]

off topic... phelps just won lifetime gold medal number 10 in the 200m butterfly.

[boca]

Great Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 101245.GIF

Original:



Needed for development (fake):

Sandy it looks like you smeared paint.You are very talented on these graphics and pictures.

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

This is either 92L entering the same area where 99L failed or another drastic d-min like yesterday. Everyone is watching for a center burst. Structure might kick start it.

[HURAKAN]

Sandy it looks like you smeared paint.You are very talented on these graphics and pictures.

Thanks. It's Photobucket!

[haml8]

off topic... phelps just won lifetime gold medal number 10 in the 200m butterfly.

Dang it I was purposly on this board so I would stay away for seeing the results! I have it recorded and was waiting until later this evening to watch it.... spoiler boy

j/k.... GO USA!!