ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Blown Away]

Can somebody get a 24 or so hour loop to compare 94L from early this morning until now?

[RL3AO]

Can somebody get a 24 or so hour loop to compare 94L from early this morning until now?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmirimg_loop.asp?storm_identifier=AL942008&starting_image=2008AL94_4KMIRIMG_200807142045.GIF&ending_image=2008AL94_4KMIRIMG_200807152045.GIF

[Squarethecircle]

We might as well let it go. Given the state of the Atlantic over the past week or so there's a good chance that 95L isn't too far off.

[mattpetre]

I'm not letting this go... it's not dead yet...

[NDG]

I am going to give it one more night to see if convection refires, but clearly the UL winds are not that perfect, it might still be catching some light northerly ML shear.

[tropicsPR]

Invest 94 is a great fighter. Does not want to suffer a KO...

[KWT]

Convection keeps plusing up ever further west of where the 'center' of this disturbance is but its no good there. I think we need to watch it for one more Dmax but its looking a little messier again.

[NDG]

Well, buoy 41040 just NW side of the system winds have switched to the NE, fairly gusty.
Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 50 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 19.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 6.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.2 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.93 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.1 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.7 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.2 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 87.3 °F

[KWT]

Yep NDG I suspect even if it doesn't end up forming it will still pack a fair punch in terms of gusts in the deeper convection further west.

[Nimbus]

Earlier it looked like something was going on at the surface up near 13 N so that might be the area to watch for convection forming over a center tonight. When and where is the shear expected to let up?

[HURAKAN]

If this shear forecast becomes a reality, there is no end for the shear in the near future.

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL942008  07/15/08  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    28    29    31    34    36    38    37    37    41    44    47
V (KT) LAND       25    26    28    29    31    34    36    38    37    37    40    42    35
V (KT) LGE mod    25    25    26    26    26    26    26    26    25    24    24    25    25

SHEAR (KTS)       12    15    22    26    25    21    25    27    29    27    25    30    22
SHEAR DIR        300   285   295   309   317   322   342   339   346   330   295   288   276
SST (C)         27.2  27.5  27.7  27.9  28.0  28.1  28.1  28.1  28.1  28.2  28.5  28.8  28.9
POT. INT. (KT)   129   132   135   137   138   139   139   139   140   141   145   150   151
ADJ. POT. INT.   130   133   135   137   137   138   137   137   138   137   141   143   142
200 MB T (C)   -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9
TH_E DEV (C)      10    10     9     9    10    10    10    10    10    10    11    10    10
700-500 MB RH     62    61    62    61    58    57    55    52    48    49    49    52    57
GFS VTEX (KT)      5  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    14    13    19    15    10     5    16    26    12    20    13    -2   -26
200 MB DIV       -11    -6    10     5    11   -13    13     0    14     5    20    14     8
LAND (KM)        916   884   883   777   654   486   445   367   200   142     4    75   -32
LAT (DEG N)     13.0  13.3  13.6  13.9  14.1  14.5  14.8  15.3  16.1  17.0  18.1  19.3  20.4
LONG(DEG W)     50.1  51.6  53.1  54.6  56.0  58.6  61.3  63.9  66.7  69.4  72.0  74.5  76.8
STM SPEED (KT)    16    15    15    14    13    13    13    13    14    13    14    13    11
HEAT CONTENT      30    40    51    56    60    61    57    59    75    61    70    78  9999

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18      CX,CY: -16/  5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  671  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  23.9 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  62.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   1.   2.   5.  10.  17.  22.  26.  30.  33.  35.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -5. -11. -16. -21. -23. -24. -24.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   5.   5.   6.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   6.   7.   8.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       1.   2.   3.   4.   8.  10.  13.  13.  14.  18.  22.  24.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      1.   3.   4.   6.   9.  11.  13.  12.  12.  16.  19.  22.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942008     INVEST 07/15/08  18 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  20.0 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.8
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   1.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 109.4 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  68.0 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  16.8 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.7
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  47.4 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    17% is   1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    10% is   1.2 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942008     INVEST 07/15/08  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             

[KWT]

Yep I think this time it may really be finished as shear is progged to really ramp up. Ah well it was another experience, as with the tropics there will probably be a few more systems that get close but no cigar and this is probably one of them.

[Ivanhater]

I wonder if a new low will try to form under the pretty persistent convection to the NW of the old low..wouldnt be the first time..something I will be looking for...

[KWT]

Its possible but I don't think its all that likely tobe honest, there is still shear evident and the eastern convection has totally died, I think this one is dead and buried now, still chance it may come back if its not totally destroyed by shear further west but for now this one is done for.

[cycloneye]

They leave the door a little bit open:

ABNT20 KNHC 152339
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 315 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING.
WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

I continue watching 94L but my interest for this system is 90% gone. Still, strange things have happened in the tropics and until 94L is completely dissipated, it cannot be completely disregarded.

[DESTRUCTION5]

NHC has about 10% more faith thn Ortt..LOL

[cheezyWXguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... xyrshr.png

Based on this map I dont really see this thing getting into very strong shear...in fact, it looks like the strongest shear it could possibly run into in the caribbean is 20kt. Of course this is subject to change, and I currently dont think development is very likely...yet. Can I get some pro feedback about if development it possible in the w. carib? Water is very warm, very low shear, and I doubt much dry air.

[Squarethecircle]

The shear is not going to stay like that forever. The model run also includes changes in the shear values over time.

[gatorcane]

NHC leaves the probability orange and suggests there is still possibilities for development into a depression. NHC is consistent with my thinking at this point and as you all know I have been consistently forecasting tropical depression development out of 94L Note they do not mention that the environment will become unfavorable any longer. Marginal is the key word that I also used earlier in this thread

So far we have

NHC: 20-50% chance of development

"consensus" of storm2k board: close to 0%

Interesting.