ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[cycloneye]

00z HWRF landfall in GOM is near New Iberia.LA

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

00z GFDL Animation.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[vaffie]

0z nogaps makes major shift westward from the panhandle of Florida to SE Texas.

Compare:
0Z: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dy ... oplant.gif

older 12Z: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dy ... oplant.gif


So far:
UKMET, CMC, NOGAPS making significant shift wests. GFS making smaller shift west.

GFDL, HWRF stay the same. GFDL and NHC track are now at the eastern edge of the guidance.

Waiting on the EURO.

[txag2005]

Wow, talk about a roller coaster. I've been writing this off in my mind due to the eastern pull of the models in the last 24 hours, but the fact that 3-4 models are pulling back west towards SE Texas is very concerning once again.

Looks like Houston needs to watch this storm closely.

[RattleMan]

CMC 00z T+144:



...

[Scorpion]

That'd be some Fujiwara effect haha.

[Cyclenall]

The Canadian is really crazy this time (the one from http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/). It stalls a hurricane off of Tampa and then bounces it around and then to New Orleans sometime later. It's like the hurricane became aware and wanted to create as much panic as possible...

[Wx_Warrior]

I don't put much stock in nogaps or cmc....never have. I've been told nogaps is one of the older models.

Looked at the last HWRF and the newest has moved east a bit.

[RL3AO]

Ignore the 0z models. The starting spot was way off. This storm is moving SW and is probably going south of Jamaica.

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO looks to be NOLA...or a tad west of it...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008082800!!/

[rockyman]

Euro:

[Scorpion]

That run is every emergency managers nightmare.

[rockyman]

The Euro takes that storm off the east coast of Florida and slams it into Cuba...then moves it NW into SE Florida and up the Peninsula by Day 10

[Solaris]

06z model runs take Gustav across S.Jamaica and then straight to the GOM where the cluster splits in two. 1 going for rhe rough NOLA area, the other one going more for E.TX

[Sabanic]

Well it's nice to wake up this AM and see that Gus is something we most likely will not have to deal with. I'll be praying for those west of us though.

[Nimbus]

The models are finally initializing further south as I suggested they would yesterday. The new player late in the forecast is a mid level high in the Ohio valley that would steer Gustav further west.

I'm still thinking Gustav will pass near the mid gulf buoy as a major hurricane. A track through the yucatan channel this time of year with almost ideal conditions for development is terrifying.

What is the best high resolution upper air model? I think they usually wait until 72-100 hours from expected landfall to do the most intense high altitude flight analysis.

Given the expected strength of the storm it would be important to narrow the cone early. Model consensus would currently support landfalls anywhere from east Texas to the Florida panhandle depending on the strength of the mid level ridge.

[KWT]

Its a tricky one, given the current motion the tracks have indeed shifted westward. I should think it all depends on how well the upper high further north has been modelled really as to how quickly it starts to erode on the western side and when Gustav starts to tilt back to the WNW.

As you say a track through the Yucatan channel does rather suggest this could be a powerful hurricane.

[Sabanic]

So there is still a good possibility of Gus coming this way? Looks to me that there is a decided trend to the west. Still think there could be some flip flopping of the models?

[Nimbus]

Still think there could be some flip flopping of the models?

The new forecast high centered over the Ohio valley is still 4 days out but if it starts to verify the cone should narrow to TX/LA. Without a second high steering west Gustav could recurve into the panhandle as the current Florida ridge weakens.

[HouTXmetro]

So there is still a good possibility of Gus coming this way? Looks to me that there is a decided trend to the west. Still think there could be some flip flopping of the models?

I'm sure the models will swing back, they always do.

[KWT]

Yeah no where in the gulf is in the clear yet though odds on a panhandle hit are starting to decrease with this having relocated to the south and moving W/WSW.