ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[gatorcane]

I'm not buying the Yucatan track

6Z GFDL has this in the E Bahamas. It has a coherent enough vortex to be influenced by the weakness to the north

agreed Derek and this is the point I have been making several times this morning. Now if 94L were weak I would say more WNW.

I think the GFS is lost again with this system.

[tgenius]

The thing that totally floors me is in the herald yesterday there was talk that the Water Management wants to DRAIN Lake O AGAIN for fear of it overflowing.. I can't begin to conceive such stupidity... /endrant

[ericinmia]

Still too early to tell... I'm not believing ANY models until recon gets some hard data for them to chew on

That being said, that LAST thing Florida needs is more rain

Lake O could still use a couple more feet. Fay got us from 11' to 13' but we are supposed to be near 15' right now. Although the sfwmd wants to let water out because they are worrying about the integrity of the earthen dams. Which to me is poppycock, considering they are near 6-10 stories tall. If you drive up US27 from south florida, you go right by them, within feet. I say if the water breaches them, and the people on the other side didn't leave... well they must have already just had worse problems (ie. extremely high winds to drive all that water over the dam)
-Eric

[jlauderdal]

I'm not buying the Yucatan track

6Z GFDL has this in the E Bahamas. It has a coherent enough vortex to be influenced by the weakness to the north

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7...
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...AND THE MODELS INSISTENCE ON A NEW SYSTEM NORTH OF THE
GREATER ANTILLES...HAVE SEPARATED THE SYSTEMS INTO TWO DISCRETE
LOWS. EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE ONGOING FORECAST PLACES TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 7 IN THE FLORIDA KEYS BY NEXT MONDAY MORNING AS THE
SYSTEM IS LURED NORTHWEST BY A MID-LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR
THE GULF COAST. THE DETAILS ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BE DISCUSSED
ON THE 16Z CONFERENCE CALL WITH NHC. FOR DETAILS OVER THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS /THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING/ SEE THE LATEST NHC
DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7.

[ronjon]

I'm not buying the Yucatan track

6Z GFDL has this in the E Bahamas. It has a coherent enough vortex to be influenced by the weakness to the north

Not sure if you mean the 12 GFDL but the 06Z GFDL doesn't bring TD 7 into the eastern Bahamas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2008082506-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[cpdaman]

from 5 am miami discussion


THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT WEATHER WISE AS
DEEP LAYER RIDGE SETTLES IN ACROSS S FLA FOR ALL WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. BUT THEN THIS COULD BE CONSTRUED AS GOOD NEWS SINCE IT IS
LATE AUGUST.

???? little to talk about

[HURAKAN]

[cpdaman]

so basically over cuba for 3 days, that would take care of that i would think

[gatorcane]

Accuweather targets South Florida (again)

[Wx_Warrior]

Interesting ACCWX...GFS has South Mexico and EURO this morning had a Florida run...Nasty setup.

[gatorcane]

Interesting ACCWX...GFS has South Mexico and EURO this morning had a Florida run...Nasty setup.

so between the GFS and Euro we see a span of about 3000 miles or so right? Can't wait to see the evolution of the cone of uncertainty

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 170045.GIF

Great loop on the "eye feature"

[deltadog03]

I actually agree with Derek's Track wise...

[gatorcane]

seems to be pretty much a NW movement now (no longer WNW):

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[tgenius]

seems to be pretty much a NW movement now (no longer WNW):

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

What is up with this possible track record? Fay screws up my 30th birthday, and Gustav could screw up our Labor Day weekend!

[Frank2]

Stupid AW - they define the word "sadist"...

I even mentioned JB's crazy behavior to the AMS in Boston, and, one of their senior folks was kind enough to tell me that since JB does not have AMS membership (Gee, you think?) there's nothing they can do to professionally prevent (censure) his scare tactics, but, he mentioned that hopefully AW's paying customers will tire of such nonsense and realize that his forecasting "style" is inappropriate, especially in light of the Hurricane Rita disaster of 2006, when JB insisted on a Houston situation similar to Katrina...

Back to reality in forecasting - 07L seems to have taken a hard right in the past few hours, per the NHC's mentioning of a weakness in the subtropical ridge:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[gatorcane]

look how the eye continues to clear out.....and this is a depression????

[ROCK]

Interesting ACCWX...GFS has South Mexico and EURO this morning had a Florida run...Nasty setup.

so between the GFS and Euro we see a span of about 3000 miles or so right? Can't wait to see the evolution of the cone of uncertainty

oh come on gator, SFL is right in the middle of the cone with the line right on your house...Your going to get the NE quad of a cat 3...have fun with that...

[deltadog03]

If the center is right there, then this dosn't look all that healthy...I mean, its def. strengthening, but its lopsided...lol

[jlauderdal]

seems to be pretty much a NW movement now (no longer WNW):

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

how long was the loop you looked at to determine this motion?