ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[KWT]

Looking much better now Hurakan can see the center is obviously under the convection now and thats also expanding westwards as new areas of convection forms further west of the center, this could get wrapped up pretty quickly if this continues IMO.

[KatDaddy]

The scary part to this how fast Alicia and Humberto strengthened in a single day. There more banding on the W and NW side since 5AM this morning and there is very warm water in the NW GOM.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Steadily wrapping around Hurakan which is certainly suggests that Ed is strengthening, will be very interesting to see what recon shows when it gets into the system later.

with 24hrs left over water its still got time to pull out a few tricks if it doesn't get hit by any more shear.

[funster]

We could use some more recon. When is that most coolest of data coming?

[HURAKAN]

[physicx07]

Once that happens for sure I could easily see some rapid strengthening even if there's some shear if it's not too much. The 20 kts I saw in the image someone posted might not be a huge problem if it gets vertically locked IMO.

edit: actually the 20kt was a little farther west. It was less right where the storm is now. I wonder if the shear gradient ahead of the storm might help upper level ventilation = help strengthening.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

The most recent long-range radar loop from KLIX is making me think that the LLC and MLC maybe connecting for sure now. There was a band of precip in between a center that seemed to be going slightly north, and another clear spot that seemed to be going south slightly (LLC?). That band has recently cleared out and looks like a larger single center of circ is forming. Perhaps...could spell the start of some serious organization.

[xironman]

Looking at that northern cirrus expand, the shear can't be that bad.

[KWT]

got about another 3 1/2hrs till the next recon goes in, could well see some decent strengthening in that time if this trend carries on with the convection wrapping around the center.

Need to see if the convection continues to try and flare up as we go into the hotter hours of the day.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 05, 2008080412, , BEST, 0, 281N, 903W, 40, 1002,

Down to 40 knots????

[KWT]

Hmmm strange one Hurakan not sure why they have lowered the winds though I guess it has something to do with recon earlier not finding high enough winds to justify it staying at 45kts.

Still given the fact its clearly organising does seem a slightly strange move.

[physicx07]

I agree, why lower it 5 when it might get it back in an hour or two if it hasn't already?

Hmmm strange one Hurakan not sure why they have lowered the winds though I guess it has something to do with recon earlier not finding high enough winds to justify it staying at 45kts.

Still given the fact its clearly organising does seem a slightly strange move.

[weatherguru18]

Well the 8am keeps it at 50mph. I'm sure they won't issue a special advisory over it. No harm no foul. Nobody knows but us--and a couple thousand other weather junkies across the nation.

[dwg71]

Its not strengthening at the moment. 40Kts is probably generous. Lets see what it does the next 6 hours. A 40Kt TS is just what SE texas needs. Bring on the rain...

If the center is displaced from the convection, which is what I think will happen over the next few hours it will struggle. I do feel most moisture will be relegated to SWLA and golden triangle of Texas.

[xironman]

Look at the bands start to form on radar http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LIX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes. That is what it did not have yesterday.

[LaBreeze]

Sunny at the moment here and not a cloud in sight. Not even a breeze.

[KWT]

dwg71...seriously you think 40kts is generous given the center is under the deep convection and new convecition is developing on the western side as well?

I doubt it will get exposed with new convection firing up on the western side as well, that was this systems problem last night is that it only has convection on the southern side, this time it has some on the north, eastern, western and some to the south as well with the old convective mass that was with Ed.

[tigergirl]

Breezy conditions here in Larose..looks like squalls starting to roll in.

[Extremeweatherguy]

There is no way this is weakening. This is clearly in a strengthening mode based on the latest satellite and radar trends, and I think chances are still quite high that this is at least a strong TS by the time of landfall.

BTW - Since I have the next few days free, I am going to be adventurous and chase this storm. I have setup a flight out to Texas later today and will be staying right on the coast. Hopefully I will be able to capture some good footage of the experience to share with everyone.

[cycloneye]

Since I have the next few days free, I decided I am going to be adventurous and chase this storm. I have setup a flight out to Texas later today and will be staying right on the coast. Hopefully I will be able to capture some good footage of the experience to share with everyone

Good luck on the experience to chase Edouard,and hopefully you will stand at the right spot when it makes landfall.