ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[Derek Ortt]

40KT is quite generous

please, stick with what the data indicates

[HURAKAN]

[HouTXmetro]

There is no way this is weakening. This is clearly in a strengthening mode based on the latest satellite and radar trends, and I think chances are still quite high that this is at least a strong TS by the time of landfall.

BTW - Since I have the next few days free, I am going to be adventurous and chase this storm. I have setup a flight out to Texas later today and will be staying right on the coast. Hopefully I will be able to capture some good footage of the experience to share with everyone.

EWG you setting up in Galveston?

[Chacor]

40KT is quite generous

please, stick with what the data indicates

Just in case anyone missed the discussion from 5am:

WHEN THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS PENETRATED THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST BEFORE
0600 UTC...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS UP TO 1006 MB. IN FACT...BASED
ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AROUND THAT TIME...IT WAS DUBIOUS AS TO
WHETHER EDOUARD WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.

[dwg71]

dwg71...seriously you think 40kts is generous given the center is under the deep convection and new convecition is developing on the western side as well?

I doubt it will get exposed with new convection firing up on the western side as well, that was this systems problem last night is that it only has convection on the southern side, this time it has some on the north, eastern, western and some to the south as well with the old convective mass that was with Ed.

I do - think 40 is generous atm, there really isnt any sustained convection to the west and what was over top is being blown east. Center will be exposed, unless significant convection builds west.

[HouTXmetro]

40KT is quite generous

please, stick with what the data indicates

Just in case anyone missed the discussion from 5am:

WHEN THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS PENETRATED THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST BEFORE
0600 UTC...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS UP TO 1006 MB. IN FACT...BASED
ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AROUND THAT TIME...IT WAS DUBIOUS AS TO
WHETHER EDOUARD WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.

They should call it what it is and downgrade if there is no support for a Tropical Storm.

[Extremeweatherguy]

There is no way this is weakening. This is clearly in a strengthening mode based on the latest satellite and radar trends, and I think chances are still quite high that this is at least a strong TS by the time of landfall.

BTW - Since I have the next few days free, I am going to be adventurous and chase this storm. I have setup a flight out to Texas later today and will be staying right on the coast. Hopefully I will be able to capture some good footage of the experience to share with everyone.

EWG you setting up in Galveston?

Yes.

[Stormcenter]

It has a pretty good presentation on radar. As some have noted already convection is
definitely on the increase.


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[KWT]

40KT is quite generous

please, stick with what the data indicates

Yeah i suppose it supported 40kts around 12z fair enough, now I think 45kts is probably a better reflection again and I bet recon will find something like come next mission. (given thats still 4hrs away thats pretty conservative I suppose)

dwg71, its got some westerly shear from what I see, new convection is firing over the center however still.

[Stormcenter]

40KT is quite generous

please, stick with what the data indicates

Just in case anyone missed the discussion from 5am:

WHEN THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS PENETRATED THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST BEFORE
0600 UTC...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS UP TO 1006 MB. IN FACT...BASED
ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AROUND THAT TIME...IT WAS DUBIOUS AS TO
WHETHER EDOUARD WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.

They should call it what it is and downgrade if there is no support for a Tropical Storm.

If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck....well you know the rest.
This is a duck.

[funster]

40KT is quite generous

please, stick with what the data indicates

Just in case anyone missed the discussion from 5am:

WHEN THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS PENETRATED THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST BEFORE
0600 UTC...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS UP TO 1006 MB. IN FACT...BASED
ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AROUND THAT TIME...IT WAS DUBIOUS AS TO
WHETHER EDOUARD WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.

Of course, you also don't want to miss the part right after that.

RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
HOWEVER AND THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAD FALLEN BACK TO 1002 MB.

[hurrican19]

I would hate to see your airfare cost for a ticket with a 1 day notice!

[Extremeweatherguy]

40KT is quite generous

please, stick with what the data indicates

Just in case anyone missed the discussion from 5am:

WHEN THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS PENETRATED THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST BEFORE
0600 UTC...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS UP TO 1006 MB. IN FACT...BASED
ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AROUND THAT TIME...IT WAS DUBIOUS AS TO
WHETHER EDOUARD WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.

That was from 5am though. At that time I definitely agree that this was a much weaker storm. Since that point however, the convection has been on the increase around the center and I am confident that this is still a tropical storm. The next round of recon should be very helpful.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I would hate to see your airfare cost for a ticket with a 1 day notice!

I had plenty of points, so it really was not too bad.

[Ed Mahmoud]

There is no way this is weakening. This is clearly in a strengthening mode based on the latest satellite and radar trends, and I think chances are still quite high that this is at least a strong TS by the time of landfall.

BTW - Since I have the next few days free, I am going to be adventurous and chase this storm. I have setup a flight out to Texas later today and will be staying right on the coast. Hopefully I will be able to capture some good footage of the experience to share with everyone.

You chased snow between Abilene and DFW last winter, right?


You rock!

[HURAKAN]

August 3 @ 1215 UTC



August 4 @ 1215 UTC

[xironman]

The next run they found 1002, so the 1006 was for a very short time period.

[Ed Mahmoud]

There is no way this is weakening. This is clearly in a strengthening mode based on the latest satellite and radar trends, and I think chances are still quite high that this is at least a strong TS by the time of landfall.

BTW - Since I have the next few days free, I am going to be adventurous and chase this storm. I have setup a flight out to Texas later today and will be staying right on the coast. Hopefully I will be able to capture some good footage of the experience to share with everyone.

EWG you setting up in Galveston?

I'm hoping he says Stephanie Abrams at the Flagship Hotel fishing pier.

[KWT]

As others have said the system was weaker around 5am and by the time the 12z estimate of 40kts came out it was still in the developing trend so recon wouldn't have found any higher winds, this probably will change come next recon IMO.

[hurrican19]

I would hate to see your airfare cost for a ticket with a 1 day notice!

I had plenty of points, so it really was not too bad.

ahhhh frequent fly program, gotta love those Be sure to have your laptop and internet handy, post pictures

If this thing were making landfall during the evening, i'd be in Galveston, as well, but I'm not thinking ill be off work tomorrow with 40mph winds, lol.