ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[caneman]

I don't normally let myself get too riled up this far out but what is very concerning to me living in Tampa Bay is that every time the models shift back East and then back West and so on and so forth is that we are always in the middle. I've noticed in past storms that the area that stays close to the middle during these shifts is usually the one that gets whacked. At least we have time on our side though. 5 days is a long time and who knows maybe in 2 days someone else will be middle of the cone.

[DESTRUCTION5]

HWRF Shifts East too...Bot 50-75 miles off tampa...

[caneman]

Triple gulp..... That is some doggone consistency in these 3 models. Link???

[KWT]

Hmmm, the GFS runs are shifting back east again, needs to be watched though the GFS sometimes way overdoes troughs outside of 96hrs...

However the GFDL lifting up is a big deal, still would have a decent weakening over Cuba BUT it lifts up and would give the keys a big hit.

[Portastorm]

I really feel for y'all in Florida. These models variations must be driving you nuts. All the more reason, I suppose, to follow NHC's careful guidance and act accordingly. On a more positive note, I'm not sure how Ike will be able to maintain his formidable presence if he spends much time over Cuba. Gustav was a larger system and we saw how that landmass just derailed his inner core.

[jlauderdal]

wonder if Steve Lyons and Max Mayfield are doubting those southern models now like they were yesterday . .

lyons actually came out and said it, we were speculating mayfield was but i never heard mayfield say it, maybe someone else did, then again those two guys aren't exactly short on experience

[KWT]

Yeah but Gustav also got hammered by shear, thats probably what ruined the core more then anything else portastorm.

The GFDL isn't great, whilst it is inland for a while iots not far from the coast really and its a big deal different then the mountions of east Cuba.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Triple gulp..... That is some doggone consistency in these 3 models. Link???

paysite.

[ronjon]

Caneman, relax, still a long ways off - and the models could continue to shift east the next few days - remember Fay? That 06Z GFDL track would be the worst case for Tampa Bay bringing in storm surge from a major. Let's hope they turned on the hurricane deflector shield at McDill next week.
Anyway, here is what the GFS and GFDL are keying on - a weakness in the 500 mb ridge that grows until it separates at 132 hrs. Did anyone notice that Ike slows down to just 6 or 7 mph the last 30 hrs of that run? Yikes!

[Sabanic]

Triple gulp..... That is some doggone consistency in these 3 models. Link???

True, but it is 5 days out. As we all know we will more than likely be going through this for a few more days, and then when we get inside of 3 days the consistency of the models will hold much more validity.

Remember the GFDL showed either side of Mobile Bay back and forth for over 2 days and then in the 11th hour started sliding over to LA

[jhpigott]

Yeah but Gustav also got hammered by shear, thats probably what ruined the core more then anything else portastorm.

The GFDL isn't great, whilst it is inland for a while iots not far from the coast really and its a big deal different then the mountions of east Cuba.

compared to what the GDFL has done the last few runs taking it thru the heart of Cuba and actually briefly into the NW Caribbean, this is a decent shift north as well . . . just skirts the Cuban northern coastline

What does this run of the HRWF do over Cuba?

[Portastorm]

Yeah but Gustav also got hammered by shear, thats probably what ruined the core more then anything else portastorm.

The GFDL isn't great, whilst it is inland for a while iots not far from the coast really and its a big deal different then the mountions of east Cuba.

Thanks KWT. Good point and I should have focused on the multiple causes. Shear was the main factor there. I want to say that the trend this year though seems to be very stout systems until they encounter land masses and then they never seem to recover. However, if you think about it, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, and Hanna have all been negatively impacted (in a big way) by shear this season.

[KWT]

Yep its the GFDL shift that has my attention, mainly because the GFS and the two hurricane models which run off it are pretty much in total agreement about the track...however they are all based off the same data so go figure really!

I personally think the GFS is overdoing any weakness *again*, a good idea is usually see what the UKMo/ECM do because they have a left bias and go down the middle of the UKMO+ECM and the GFS idea as the GFS normally has a right bias, note that only counts however outside 96hrs...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yeah but Gustav also got hammered by shear, thats probably what ruined the core more then anything else portastorm.

The GFDL isn't great, whilst it is inland for a while iots not far from the coast really and its a big deal different then the mountions of east Cuba.

compared to what the GDFL has done the last few runs taking it thru the heart of Cuba and actually briefly into the NW Caribbean, this is a decent shift north as well . . . just skirts the Cuban northern coastline

What does this run of the HRWF do over Cuba?

Runs thru the very top..not much

[jhpigott]

Yeah but Gustav also got hammered by shear, thats probably what ruined the core more then anything else portastorm.

The GFDL isn't great, whilst it is inland for a while iots not far from the coast really and its a big deal different then the mountions of east Cuba.

compared to what the GDFL has done the last few runs taking it thru the heart of Cuba and actually briefly into the NW Caribbean, this is a decent shift north as well . . . just skirts the Cuban northern coastline

What does this run of the HRWF do over Cuba?

Runs thru the very top..not much

then that's a pretty decent move north as well as it (like the GDFL) was running thru the spine of Cuba and breifly into the NW Carib

[jlauderdal]

06z GFDL ends just east of Tampa,after it tracks thru the north coast of Cuba but not crosses the island.This time,it does not go to the NW Caribbean.

WHXX04 KWBC 061128
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 6

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 22.5 66.2 260./13.0
6 22.0 67.7 250./14.8
12 21.7 69.1 260./12.8
18 21.3 70.3 250./11.9
24 21.1 71.3 256./ 9.5
30 20.9 72.5 264./11.3
36 20.8 73.5 262./ 9.8
42 20.7 74.3 267./ 7.6
48 21.0 75.3 283./ 9.7
54 21.3 76.3 286./ 9.6
60 21.5 77.3 285./10.1
66 21.9 78.1 299./ 7.7
72 22.5 79.1 300./11.6
78 23.1 80.1 300./10.8
84 23.6 81.1 298./10.3
90 24.1 81.7 308./ 6.9
96 24.8 82.4 315./ 9.4
102 25.4 82.8 325./ 7.0
108 26.0 83.1 334./ 7.0
114 26.6 83.1 357./ 6.1
120 27.2 83.2 352./ 5.5
126 27.8 83.3 354./ 6.6

so at 78h its 3 degrees south of me and at 108h its 3 degrees west of me, that could be a rather interesting 2 days and beyond of weather being on the north and east quads

what a morning in fll today, calm winds, temps felt rather cool by our standards, first morning in weeks we havent had a breeze, my weather station dropped below 70 for a spell before sunrise, beach was great

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... KFLFORTL14

[jinftl]

any spaghetti model graphics available with latest runs?

Yep its the GFDL shift that has my attention, mainly because the GFS and the two hurricane models which run off it are pretty much in total agreement about the track...however they are all based off the same data so go figure really!

I personally think the GFS is overdoing any weakness *again*, a good idea is usually see what the UKMo/ECM do because they have a left bias and go down the middle of the UKMO+ECM and the GFS idea as the GFS normally has a right bias, note that only counts however outside 96hrs...

[ronjon]

06Z HWRF - deeper into Cuba but turning North into the eastern GOM like the GFDL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008090606-ike09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[caneman]

Caneman, relax, still a long ways off - and the models could continue to shift east the next few days - remember Fay? That 06Z GFDL track would be the worst case for Tampa Bay bringing in storm surge from a major. Let's hope they turned on the hurricane deflector shield at McDill next week.
Anyway, here is what the GFS and GFDL are keying on - a weakness in the 500 mb ridge that grows until it separates at 132 hrs. Did anyone notice that Ike slows down to just 6 or 7 mph the last 30 hrs of that run? Yikes!

You're right Ronjon. However, I want to point a couple things out here. Look at the consistency with these 3 models now. Consider how for several days we've remained nearly in the middle of the cone. Also, we've been under the gun with false alarms a couple times already with other storms this season. Consider how we are approaching the fall pattern. Something I want to point out to all Tampa Bay area residents is that just because we haven't been hit with a major in a long time doesn't mean we won't . People often site this, however, please consider how many times we've been hit by Tropical Storms. We rank fairly high on Hurricane Alleys site of frequent TS visits. The patterns have favored us getting hit many times by high end TS storms they just haven't been majors. I liken it to playing baseball. While you may be a player that hits singles all the time, if you keep swinging enough occassionally you will get a double, triple or in the park home run. Are we up to bat? Too early to tell. I'll be more concerned if it keeps swinging this way in the 2-3 day time frame.

[KWT]

HWRF ends around 100 miles west of the GFDL ending point heading towards the big bend, very close to the GFS.