ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[LaBreeze]

If the upper TX coast is the expected landfall location, shouldn't Ed start some sort of WNW movement instead of straight W?

[HouTXmetro]

I would hate to see your airfare cost for a ticket with a 1 day notice!

I had plenty of points, so it really was not too bad.

ahhhh frequent fly program, gotta love those Be sure to have your laptop and internet handy, post pictures

If this thing were making landfall during the evening, i'd be in Galveston, as well, but I'm not thinking ill be off work tomorrow with 40mph winds, lol.

I'm wondering If I will be off tomorrow also. I doubt it but I do work for the Gov.

[HURAKAN]

Ed's outflow is quite good on the eastern hemisphere.

[Normandy]

I'm actually having a hard time locating the center, as when looking at visibles and radar I see two different things....thats a pretty good sign of disorganization.

[Stormcenter]

If the upper TX coast is the expected landfall location, shouldn't Ed start some sort of WNW movement instead of straight W?

He might be already.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... x&loop=yes

[crazycajuncane]

I would hate to see your airfare cost for a ticket with a 1 day notice!

I had plenty of points, so it really was not too bad.

I would have saved my points for a bigger storm! You must want to visit Galveston! They have quite a bit to do down there. May I recommend Landry's as a place to eat... good trip!

[HouTXmetro]

Convection is really trying to fill in on the Western Side

[CYCLONE MIKE]

What does everyone think about the surge of dry air moving south towards the LA coast. As of now the WV loop shows it right at the LA/MS border moving south and southwest. Seems to me would cut off the moisture field and get entrained in Ed's circulation. Seems to be supressing the northern movement of feeder bands from making it into LA. Guess that is why we only have a 50% chance of rain for this system.

[HouTXmetro]

What does everyone think about the surge of dry air moving south towards the LA coast. As of now the WV loop shows it right at the LA/MS border moving south and southwest. Seems to me would cut off the moisture field and get entrained in Ed's circulation. Seems to be supressing the northern movement of feeder bands from making it into LA. Guess that is why we only have a 50% chance of rain for this system.

Agree... I really doubt "E" ramps up.

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Mid level dry air will probably continue to be the main blokcer for this system really ramping up unless it can wrap around totally.

Center I'd place it inbetween the old convection in the east and the newer convection trying to pop further to the west.

as for strength, its hard to say because whilst there is every chance it could strengthen how kuch its limited by shear and dry air is a fair question to pose.

[weatherguru18]

What does everyone think about the surge of dry air moving south towards the LA coast. As of now the WV loop shows it right at the LA/MS border moving south and southwest. Seems to me would cut off the moisture field and get entrained in Ed's circulation. Seems to be supressing the northern movement of feeder bands from making it into LA. Guess that is why we only have a 50% chance of rain for this system.

Agree... I really doubt "E" ramps up.

Well I certainly wouldn't count it out either.

[Sanibel]

Coast hugger with vigorous spin. Shear from west. Suggests further intensification.


GOM favorable area for cyclones.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I like 6Z GFS and WRF. Not even a tropical storm.

Link to relevant post on models thread.


Now, I'm not certain they are right, just a tropical depression, but I like it if they are. Needed rain, but not enough for widespread floods, and no appreciable wind damage.


Judging from discussion about whether 40 knots is too low or too generous, well, we need some recon action.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Coast hugger with vigorous spin. Shear from west. Suggests further intensification.


GOM favorable area for cyclones.

Nope, dry air.

[KWT]

Agreed Ed the arguement of what is justifiable is all based on recon data that is a good 2-3hrs old and as we have seen that distance of time in small cyclones can make a reasonable difference to strength.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I believe the the nhc doesn't think it will ramp up much either. I remember with Allison a few years back that made landfall in the same area we had rain for days. Granted she did stall, but the day of landfall we were getting tropical storm gusts along with inches of rain per hour over in SE LA. Just think with a storm this close to our cloast we would be getting a little more out of it. Not even a cloud on the horizon right now. Just plain hot with no breeze.

[xironman]

Looks like the midlevel is jogging north while the lower level still has a bit of a southward angle.

[KWT]

I'm not sure cyclonemike, the NHC expects 60kts which is some fair strengthening from where its at now, 40-45kts in the space of 24hrs, whilst not rapid its steady strengthening.

Ed, its pretty obvious there is some westerly shear, the maps don't show but then again they aren't always very good with small pockets of shear.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think it is mainly dry air.

While I won't make my final unofficial and amateur prognostication until we have more recon, I think a high end depression to middle level storm, most likely 50 mph, give or take, at landfall, between Freeport and Cameron tomorrow morning is a pretty reasonable, if amateur hunch.