ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I plotted the 500mb heights every 5 meters valid Tuesday evening (see below). That ridge is forecast by the GFS to be sitting over Florida through next Saturday. Given that, to forecast a track straight to the ridge (NHC track) means you don't buy the GFS solution, I guess. Canadian shows a similar ridge. I don't buy the WNW-NW movement from south of Haiti tomorrow.

This is unusual...everything I've heard from the board and on my other sites have said that there would be a high over the western gulf and another off the florida east coast, leaving clear path up the middle for Gustav to travel.

This morning, a few folks have said that there could be a high over eastern florida. But your graphic shows somethign completely opposite.

Which is to be believed?

[Comanche]

I downloaded an azimuth overlay, and, after using it over the VIS loop, the system is on a 320-325 heading...

Frank

I see 310 AT THE MOST.

[gatorcane]

Based on Wxman's analysis there would be a significant shift West in the cone at 5pmEST, probably one of the biggest shifts we have seen in a while.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I plotted the 500mb heights every 5 meters valid Tuesday evening (see below). That ridge is forecast by the GFS to be sitting over Florida through next Saturday. Given that, to forecast a track straight to the ridge (NHC track) means you don't buy the GFS solution, I guess. Canadian shows a similar ridge. I don't buy the WNW-NW movement from south of Haiti tomorrow.

This is what i don't understand...WXMan your maps show something completely different than what the NWS Melbourne says? What am i missing?

THU-SUN...RIDGING BREAKS DOWN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS AN UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA BEFORE
WASHING OUT ON FRI...THOUGH MUCH OF THE PENINSULA WILL REMAIN IN A
GENERAL TROUGH-LIKE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS HIGH PRESSURE
CELLS WILL BE FOUND EAST AND WEST OF FLORIDA. EXPECT INWARD MOVING
SEA BREEZES EACH DAY WITH LIGHT FLOW CONTINUING IN THE LOW-LEVELS.
PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 2" DURING THIS PERIOD AND
PCPN CHANCES NEAR NORMAL WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES FOCUSED INLAND
EACH AFTERNOON.

[Category 5]

Right to hurricane.

Afraid we'll lose the "direct to hurricane" speculation if that eye doesn't improve before the hurrucane hunter gets there.

Turn it off for a few hours and come back to see where it goes.

A perfect example on how good ole data can paint a different picture.

[Derek Ortt]

What's your track, Derek? You buy the NHC forecast?

I'm well left of NHC into the GOM

[Frank2]

The NHC mentioned 305 in the TCD, but, I'll stick with at least 320...

[Sanibel]

If you look at the radar over Florida there's a visible weakness channel in the cloud flow between Fay and the pattern east of Florida. It goes right over Florida SSW to NNE.

[Derek Ortt]

if this were to hit SF... it likely will do so from the SOUTH... like nearly all of SF TCs

not sure why most continue to look to the east

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

wxman, is your chart derived from the GFS model?

Asking since your path prediction is based on it being true. I saw another NWS office say that the GFS was acting wacky and showing a non-existent ridge, so they were completely dismissing it. I gotta go look for where i read that early this morning...

[perk]

Based on Wxman's analysis there would be a significant shift West in the cone at 5pmEST, probably one of the biggest shifts we have seen in a while.

Not really gator go back and look at the NHC's initial 5 day forecast on fay, and look at where it ended up.

[gatorcane]

Based on Wxman's analysis there would be a significant shift West in the cone at 5pmEST, probably one of the biggest shifts we have seen in a while.

Not really gator go back and look at the NHC's initial 5 day forecast on fay, and look at where it ended up.

What I am talking about is between two consecutive forecasts not over a 5 day period. Even so they were pretty accurate with Fay from the beginning.

[Ed Mahmoud]

if this were to hit SF... it likely will do so from the SOUTH... like nearly all of SF TCs

not sure why most continue to look to the east

Andrew, I'd guess.


JB's new video- he says tough forecast, but he is leaning towards Florida.

[Dean4Storms]

I have to agree, I don't see this movement sustaining into the Bahamas. The track Derek has looks to make sense given the forecasted synoptics the rest of this week. Once in the GOM one would have to think an eastern half of the Gulf for a landfall providing it takes this track. I think we have a very strong TS already.



Not official, get all your information on Tropical Weather from official forecasts.

[Category 5]

What do yas think?

[srainhoutx]

I plotted the 500mb heights every 5 meters valid Tuesday evening (see below). That ridge is forecast by the GFS to be sitting over Florida through next Saturday. Given that, to forecast a track straight to the ridge (NHC track) means you don't buy the GFS solution, I guess. Canadian shows a similar ridge. I don't buy the WNW-NW movement from south of Haiti tomorrow.

Thanks wxman57. I have had some folks wondering what in the world I was seeing with a WNW motion in the coming days.

[Derek Ortt]

the GFS also has this far too weak in the short term. Likely is being steered by the trade winds based upon its depiction as a broad area of low-pressure

something more north of GFS is likely

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I see 2 camps developing, as was probably represented by the split in the models yesterday.

Some believe the High parking itself over florida, resulting in a very western gulf/mexico directed storm.

Others (including the NHC) don't buy the big high over FL and insteady see 2 separate highs with an open path in the middle, towards which Gustav takes its northern path.

Then...if you go with the "middle path" scenario, you then have to consider the incoming front.

...

Maybe there are 2 highs that then join? Hiopefully they don't try to do that with Gustav entering in between them, causing just a stall with nowhere to go aka Fay, but this time in the south of FL..

[Blown Away]

If future Gustav sneaks through the Windward pass and skirts along the N coast of Cuba, which is not to far from the NHC forecast track this could become a significant system.

[lamsalfl]

The fact of the matter is that this is a new system, which usually give path prediction trouble to forecasters. You're just going to have to sit tight for a while for this thing to organize.