ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Bane]

WoW All 3 NWS here in NC are all different in their discussions on long trem.
Sorry for so long but it has alot of differents between each other.Raleigh is like all over it and the other 2 is well maybe have some rain or not.Just thought how unusual this was.

True...you'd figure WIlmington and Morehead would be a little more forthcoming, considering how much more they have at stake.

BTW, did Fay's leftovers give y'all a good soaking?

had close to 4 inches in wilmington.

[meteorologyman]

The storm does look sick, better to be sick then looking like Gustav. Cheers to Hanna if she doesn't become any stonger than Tropical Storm.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I could not find a LLC there in Hanna if they paid me...

[BOPPA]

If Hanna plays her cards right, and weather conditons seem favorable anyone in the SE could be in trouble, esp. FL since Hanna is closest at this point.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm not saying this is going to happen but it is best to prepare for it. This is worst case scenario for FL. TS Hanna remains TS until it nears Bahamas, 36 hours before landfall and everyone goes to sleep it rapidly intensifies to at least Cat3. we all wake up to find a CAT 3 with only 24 hours or less to evacuate and storm could still strengthen more. Again i'm not saying it's going to happen it's probably ver slim, but it's best to prepare for it.

Here they are reporting it only still as a TS when it gets even close to Fl. E Coast?!?!!
I have not read or seen anything that even indicates that intensity. When these storms
get even remotely close to Fl. in the forecasts it gets my attention. Even though I am
on the W. coast.

[capepoint]

had close to 4 inches in wilmington.[/quote]


Had close to 4 drops here in Carteret County. Although it looks like we may get more about Friday.....

[lbvbl]

Anyone foresee any changes in the 11am track?

[RevDodd]

[quote=BTW, did Fay's leftovers give y'all a good soaking?

Nope we got 3/10th of a inch here. that is so sad. we need the rain so bad. The nothern parts of NC got like 6-10 inch. luckly ducks
How about you all?

Faynam got 3.5 inches. Up here in Harnett County, we were closer to 5, but about 20 miles to the west in Lee, they had between 8-10.

Interesting dicussion out of Raleigh, and looking at the maps, they've got a good case for worrying. It all depends if Hanna can hang together.

[Bane]

Anyone foresee any changes in the 11am track?

models seem to be trending more towards the carolinas.

[captain east]

Can someone tell my why all the models are now pointing towards the Carolina's?

[wzrgirl1]

i guess that the high is not going to be as strong and Hannah will be making that turn around the periphery of it after stalling for a few days

[cpdaman]

I could not find a LLC there in Hanna if they paid me...

seriously but she must have a very very vigorous one somewhere if they say this is 60 mph

8am was 23.2 69.5 so it's gotta be somewhere in this neighborhood wnw of that now , perhaps 23.1-23.5 / 69.5-70.1 in that general area.


this bouy is one tool and by data she is obviously a bit south and east of this

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046

[tpr1967]

Models are forecasting this storm to intensify. If it remains weak what does that do to the track.

[wzrgirl1]

Models are forecasting this storm to intensify. If it remains weak what does that do to the track.

maybe it won't be as influenced by the upper level steering winds?

[capepoint]

Can someone tell my why all the models are now pointing towards the Carolina's?

I don't know but I do not like them at all. At that angle of approach it would be HIGHLY UNLIKELY that it just cruise by offshore. These runs look very bad for us in NC!

[storms in NC]

I don't know if I am going to buy into that track to here or not. I will have to wait till Wed and then we may know then or Not

[deltadog03]

That (models) looks like the typically GFS...I am going to break things down too quickly...Not buying that yet...

[tpr1967]

I have been thinking(thats scary)that a weaker system steered by the lower level winds would have a chance of continuing slowly westward and not stall. Considering most of the weakness is 500mb to 200mb,With some weaking at the lower levels.

[stayawaynow]

If Hanna plays her cards right, and weather conditons seem favorable anyone in the SE could be in trouble, esp. FL since Hanna is closest at this point.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm not saying this is going to happen but it is best to prepare for it. This is worst case scenario for FL. TS Hanna remains TS until it nears Bahamas, 36 hours before landfall and everyone goes to sleep it rapidly intensifies to at least Cat3. we all wake up to find a CAT 3 with only 24 hours or less to evacuate and storm could still strengthen more. Again i'm not saying it's going to happen it's probably ver slim, but it's best to prepare for it.

Here they are reporting it only still as a TS when it gets even close to Fl. E Coast?!?!!
I have not read or seen anything that even indicates that intensity. When these storms
get even remotely close to Fl. in the forecasts it gets my attention. Even though I am
on the W. coast.

I believe that the NHC will give enough warning to prepare and the local media will be all over it. Let's keep it real.

[Bocadude85]

I have been thinking(thats scary)that a weaker system steered by the lower level winds would have a chance of continuing slowly westward and not stall. Considering most of the weakness is 500mb to 200mb,With some weaking at the lower levels.

ok my question is how does the ridge steer gustav off to the west just before landfall but steer hanna off the the north?

[Jinkers]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

I think the front from the Northeast will take Hanna up and will it will hit in the Carolinas somewhere.