ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[gatorcane]

Vortex link?

I admit, I have let my guard down here in Palm Beach, Florida

Gator,

take a look at the 6z GFDL, 6Z HWRF, 6ZNOGAPS and the 6Z Deep Bam model and there is a strong shift east with a fairly hard right turn North and in the longer range 6Z GFS brings this across north florida with a NNE heading...These trends cannot be ignored.

Well I'm looking at this but don't see the 06Z updates I guess, is there an updated graphic with these NNE turns?

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_09.gif

[O Town]

Try these gator
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Oh and make sure you choose the first selection for Ike in the drop down menu for HWRF and GFDL, the others you can just hit submit.

[Frank P]

tropical models runs

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[gatorcane]

thanks guys,

It looks to me like those models hook North at the end but in the Gulf...west of the FL peninsula...

[SWFLA_CANE]

thanks guys,

It looks to me like those models hook North at the end but in the Gulf...west of the FL peninsula...

Just off of the coast by no more then 150 miles. That is much closer then last night. Maybe the begining of a trend. Once the data from Recon and NOAA get put in the models the picture either east or west of the current models should be seen.

[Vortex]

Vortex link?

I admit, I have let my guard down here in Palm Beach, Florida

Gator,

take a look at the 6z GFDL, 6Z HWRF, 6ZNOGAPS and the 6Z Deep Bam model and there is a strong shift east with a fairly hard right turn North and in the longer range 6Z GFS brings this across north florida with a NNE heading...These trends cannot be ignored.

Well I'm looking at this but don't see the 06Z updates I guess, is there an updated graphic with these NNE turns?

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_09.gif

longer range 6Z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_192l.gif

[Vortex]

Again, its the trend...

[KWT]

Indeed they are closer to Florida...BUT...the HWRF is already too far north as is the GFS, only the GFDL is getting the current motion right it appears.

[gatorcane]

yeah that's a HUGE shift east -- Tampa would be hit by Ike on that 06Z run (be on the dirty side)...looks like the previous run was near the Central GOM coast.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Indeed they are closer to Florida...BUT...the HWRF is already too far north as is the GFS, only the GFDL is getting the current motion right it appears.

As far as trends go GFDL was the first to show more of a southerly route. The rest of the models followed in later runs.

[Blown Away]

Rate now Ike is going more SSW than SW towards Hispanola. It should take him a little longer to move W, I wonder what kind of effect that will have on the track.

[gatorcane]

Rate now Ike is going more SSW than SW towards Hispanola. It should take him a little longer to move W, I wonder what kind of effect that will have on the track.

maybe through the windward passage ultimately?

[AJC3]

Don't have recon to confirm, but based on high-res visible satellite and the Punta Cana radar, I'm coming up with a 4 hour motion pretty close to 265-270 - hugging 22N, perhaps a tenth south of that. The way I see it, there's not much, if any, southward component to the Ike's motion right now...at least since sunrise.

[Sanibel]

This return of GFDL east is what I was warning against last night. I'm no GFDL guru so I'll be honest and say I'm not sure how to read this change. However, it would stand to reason if GFDL was slightly north or right of its way south outlier that it should possibly be right and east of its GOM track. But that is tricky because the synoptic face changes as you head poleward and interact with other features besides the pure edge of a strong ridge. Not only that, GFDL can be the accurate model in the south-of-ridge scenario but then be less accurate in the poleward scenario.

Ike is fairly close to tell people to wait until tonight or tomorrow, but that is what we'll have to do.

[Sihara]

yeah that's a HUGE shift east -- Tampa would be hit by Ike on that 06Z run (be on the dirty side)...looks like the previous run was near the Central GOM coast.

What I was concerned about last night, not looking any better really.

My worry isn't just for this immediate area but for the state overall, just hoping that something happens to keep Ike away. The condition FL's in right now, no part of it could stand a hit.

Lyons just showed the track and mentioned "anyone in Tampa up to the panhandle" and a possible right hook - looks like it was based on the location of the western edge of the high. (edited to add forgotten words again )

[SWFLA_CANE]

yeah that's a HUGE shift east -- Tampa would be hit by Ike on that 06Z run (be on the dirty side)...looks like the previous run was near the Central GOM coast.

What I was concerned about last night, not looking any better really.

My worry isn't just for this immediate area but for the state overall, just hoping that something happens to keep Ike away. The condition FL's in right now, no part of it could stand a hit.

Lyons just showed the track and mentioned "anyone in Tampa up to the panhandle" - looks like it was based on the location of the western edge of the high.

O.K. and earlier this morning he was saying north gulf coast. He is just following the models just like we are. Oh by the way wasn't Fay and Charley going north to Tampa or the big bend area. We all know how they turned out. My point being anywhere in the gulf coast from south Florida to points west need to keep watch as everything will change from day to day and from model run to model run.

[jinftl]

Don't tell me Steve forgot our friends in the Keys...they are likely a first u.s. target...and part of florida which lyons may have slipped on

yeah that's a HUGE shift east -- Tampa would be hit by Ike on that 06Z run (be on the dirty side)...looks like the previous run was near the Central GOM coast.

What I was concerned about last night, not looking any better really.

My worry isn't just for this immediate area but for the state overall, just hoping that something happens to keep Ike away. The condition FL's in right now, no part of it could stand a hit.

Lyons just showed the track and mentioned "anyone in Tampa up to the panhandle" - looks like it was based on the location of the western edge of the high.

[Sihara]

O.K. and earlier this morning he was saying north gulf coast. He is just following the models just like we are. Oh by the way wasn't Fay and Charley going north to Tampa or the big bend area. We all know how they turned out. My point being anywhere in the gulf coast from south Florida to points west need to keep watch as everything will change from day to day and from model run to model run.

Right, I totally agree with you. Charley turned so quickly and right into Port Charlotte after hours of being called a Tampa hit. Same thing with Irene years ago, "certain" Tampa hit that ended up in Miami instead with serious flooding and people caught by surprise. The possibilities are many and everyone needs to keep watching.

[jhpigott]

considering the potential severity of Ike, it's not suprising the mood on the board today. But I think we all need to be mindful that we are far enough out where we could still see some significant shifts in track depending on the upper level features in the 4-7 day range. Going off the current GDFL - a 50-100 mile shift east puts this right up the gut of Florida with the major metro areas on the "dirty side", if it stays put its a real bad day for Tampa and the Big Bend area, 50-100 miles west and NOLA is saying "not again" . . .

[HURAKAN]

Lets hope the T&C are ready.