ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[rockyman]

Canadian:

[duris]

Seems like to some if you're east of the LA/MS line you don't exist.

No, no, no. It has nothing to do with location. We only think that you don't exist if you are an Auburn or Alabama fan.

[gatorcane]

The model agreement is about as good as its been with fairly tight consensus now, unfortunately LA and maybe NOLA under the gun.

[rockyman]

Canadian closeup

[AL Chili Pepper]

Can you say model agreement? South Central LA is under the gun right now.

Though I would NOT relax if I lived in the Upper TX coast. This smells like a Rita type landfall.

Not relaxing over here either. Seems like to some if you're east of the LA/MS line you don't exist. A storm approaching SE LA from the South or Southwest would make it's second landfall, if you want to call it that, on the MS coast which puts Mobile smack dab in the middle of the east side of the storm.

It's a little early for any one person to worry. Like one of the mets said last night, it all depends on when Gust starts the NW motion as to where he ends up on the coast. If there's still model consensus like that when he makes that move, that's when I'd start worrying.

[dwg71]

Nogaps shifts well east, now SE LA...

[PTrackerLA]

The model agreement is about as good as its been with fairly tight consensus now, unfortunately LA and maybe NOLA under the gun.

You know, I've woken up the past 3 mornings and checked the computer first thing hoping things have changed, but it hasn't. The consensus has been disturbing and I would have expected major shifts in the consensus and track by now. With that being said, my preparations are in full swing.

[Javlin]

Nogaps shifts well east, now SE LA...

Thats what I mean;consensus not yet really every model is bouncing except the GFDL(1)NOLA-Moblie)) HWRF(2) keeps bending R)while all the others point in the same place just swapping model names.

[mutley]

Nogaps shifts well east, now SE LA...

If memory serves, NOGAPS has been flopping around like a fish. Big swings.

[cycloneye]

12z EURO has a New Orleans landfall.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8082812!!/

[ROCK]

12z EURO has a New Orleans landfall.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8082812!!/

Luis, little more west than NO....more like Central LA or SW LA.....somewhere in there....

[HouTXmetro]

This is my Fear, the heading all the models are showing at landfall. Should a Major head into either Galveston/Houston or New Orleans from the SE that would be Horrible when it comes to surge. At this particular point it's not going to take much east or West track projection to swing landfall into either major Metropolitan area.

[Wx_Warrior]

You finish that model? Hanna cleans up after Gusy in NOLA....WOW....Hope that's not the case!

[Javlin]

You finish that model? Hanna cleans up after Gusy in NOLA....WOW....Hope that's not the case!

I saw that someone needs to shut the door on her

[Weatherfreak000]

I don't think there has been a single reliable model showing Texas landfall all day and the model cluster is getting tight.


I hate to jump the gun, but I ALWAYS say this when the situation calls for it. When you see a model cluster like this, you can pretty much take it to the bank. SW LA- Mobile AL will be the landfall position.


(P.S. don't be fussy over my post- it's of course an opinion- as all posts by users are)


Also...finally made Category 5 Status!

[ROCK]

I don't think there has been a single reliable model showing Texas landfall all day and the model cluster is getting tight.


I hate to jump the gun, but I ALWAYS say this when the situation calls for it. When you see a model cluster like this, you can pretty much take it to the bank. SW LA- Mobile will be the landfall position.


(P.S. don't be fussy over my post- it's of course an opinion- as all posts by users are)

Maybe the case but do you really want to hang your hat on a 5 day model cluster?

[KWT]

Well looks like most models are zooming in on LA.

Also yep the ECM has Gustav going a little west of N.O, close enough though that any wobble to the east would put the eastern eyewall over the city...scary runs...esp with Hanna as well!

[Portastorm]

I don't think there has been a single reliable model showing Texas landfall all day and the model cluster is getting tight.


I hate to jump the gun, but I ALWAYS say this when the situation calls for it. When you see a model cluster like this, you can pretty much take it to the bank. SW LA- Mobile AL will be the landfall position.


(P.S. don't be fussy over my post- it's of course an opinion- as all posts by users are)

The GFS isn't reliable? And yeah I know how it has not grasped Gustav much at all but are you also saying that it is clueless about all of the atmospheric parameters at play?

[vaffie]

18Z Bam models showing major shift westward--especially notable is the BAMD--for deeper systems like this one. At 12Z it was at the eastern Louisiana border, it has now shifted all the way to western Louisiana. An indication that the next round of model runs will move westward even more.

[cycloneye]

You finish that model? Hanna cleans up after Gusy in NOLA....WOW....Hope that's not the case!

I was only talking about the EURO related to Gustav.About what EURO has for Hanna,it has its own models thread.