ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[KWT]

GFS looks like it had a bit of a faulty run:

IKE...
A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ECMWF LOOKING AT POTENTIAL VORTICITY SHOWS
A TYPICAL HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE THE SYSTEM TOO TILTED/SHALLOW AT INITIALIZATION...WHICH DOES NOT IMPROVE APPRECIABLY EVEN 108 HOURS INTO ITS FORECAST. THIS DEPTH PROBLEM COULD IMPACT ITS TRACK LATE IN THE SHORT RANGE...AND INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

got that from another forum, the thing to note is that it could lead to errors in forecasting in the short and medium range which is a big deal...

[hazmat]

KWT...while that's true about how the GFS sees Ike the synoptics are more important. Several mets have pointed that out the last few days as well.
We know Ike is there...the important thing with the GFS is what is it seeing steering & influencing his path?

[sunny]

considering the potential severity of Ike, it's not suprising the mood on the board today. But I think we all need to be mindful that we are far enough out where we could still see some significant shifts in track depending on the upper level features in the 4-7 day range. Going off the current GDFL - a 50-100 mile shift east puts this right up the gut of Florida with the major metro areas on the "dirty side", if it stays put its a real bad day for Tampa and the Big Bend area, 50-100 miles west and NOLA is saying "not again" . . .

No joke. I see Steve is still without power, as is my sister outside of Baton Rouge and she could be without power for another week or so (Steve longer from what I've heard).

[jenshops]

ok i'm confused, NHC shifted the track even further S. and W. at 5am and now there is all this talk on the boards about Fl again. Has something changed? and what day do you think we'll really know if Fl will be hit or not.

[KWT]

KWT...while that's true about how the GFS sees Ike the synoptics are more important. Several mets have pointed that out the last few days as well.
We know Ike is there...the important thing with the GFS is what is it seeing steering & influencing his path?

It wouldn't effect the recurve point the GFS has at all but it would make a difference in the short term and may be the reason why the GFS has trended north on its 06z run as a weaker storm would track more due west then south of west/WSW as Ike has been doing. Makes a big difference for Cubans.

[jinftl]

Not sure if this is same graphic others have posted...sorry if so..looks like some of the models are later runs

[Sihara]

No joke. I see Steve is still without power, as is my sister outside of Baton Rouge and she could be without power for another week or so (Steve longer from what I've heard).

Still without power? That can be so miserable, no hot water or A/C. Just makes a tense situation worse. I hope they get the electric back on soon, and really hope there'll be no more hits on LA - Gustav was bad enough.


Jinftl - Lyons just mentioned the Keys, with a reference to the Labor Day storm that was so devastating. But still, I'm surprised we haven't heard more about the risks of a hit there, since it seems quite possible - and they're so vulnerable. (Footnote: have a co-worker on vacation there and today it looks as if that "vacation" will end in a long line of visitors in a mandatory evac that started this morning - ugh.)

[gtalum]

Has something changed?

Some of the models have shifted back toward Florida. However, there is some question as to whether the initialization of those models was accurate.

and what day do you think we'll really know if Fl will be hit or not.

I suspect things will be a bit clearer by tomorrow.

[Guadua]

I think the GFDL has it right, with that front coming down it might hook up into west Florida.

[Sanibel]

It is too hard to say GFDL is THE guiding model right now. It could be accurate in the south track so far but then be inaccurate in this closer-to-Florida track because the Gulf has already shown us a strange NW track with Gus. Too early to say. See if NHC starts nudging back east over today and tonight. The consensus is currently a miss west of Florida and into the Gulf. Keys not included.

[Sihara]

I hope this is allowed - if not, mods please remove it.

Reading Jeff Masters - he says that Ike will come off Cuba

near the Florida Keys on Tuesday, then swing north to threaten the west coast of Florida. The NOGAPS and GFDL both forecast that Ike will pass within 50 miles of Tampa on Thursday, while the GFS and HWRF put Ike several hundred miles off the west coast of Florida. I'm leaning towards this northern solution, since the GFDL model has been performing so well for both Ike and Gustav. The GFDL forecasts Category 3 strength winds will affect Key West and the Upper Keys, despite a track by Ike over Cuba.

Here's the link: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200809


He does point out the vulnerability of the Keys and the dangers from a cat2-3 storm there. And TWC now warning that all in the Keys need to be prepared and reporting on the evac in the Keys saying it was like "a ghost town." Mandatory evac for residents begins tomorrow.

[Stratosphere747]

Looks like there could have been some issues with a few of the latest runs. NHC might address this in the disco.

[Sabanic]

11:00 AM just a slight tad further West

[perk]

Looks like there could have been some issues with a few of the latest runs. NHC might address this in the disco.

Care to elaborate.

[Stratosphere747]

Looks like there could have been some issues with a few of the latest runs. NHC might address this in the disco.

Care to elaborate.

Could just be where I got my modeling info from. The latest guidance or plots were not updated. No mention of it by the NHC so I'll assume it's on my end.

About time to start setting benchmarks in relation to the split in camps. I think a key could be if Ike makes it briefly into the Caribbean, just off the coast of Cuba.

[HURRICANELONNY]

So glad to see the model runs heading South of me. I don't need another Wilma or Andrew. I get adrenaline from watching but not in my neighborhood.

[DESTRUCTION5]

How could they not shift back east wit hall these new model runs?

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

NHC is way W of the "consensus"

[ericinmia]

How could they not shift back east wit hall these new model runs?

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

NHC is way W of the "consensus"

LOL not sure if your joking or not, but i'm seeing the Hannah Plot on the Ike page. Too far west by those standards for sure!

Edit:
I see what you mean... Had to click the javascript link for Ike... yeah they are off a little to the south and especially long term to the west...

[caneseddy]

How could they not shift back east wit hall these new model runs?

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

NHC is way W of the "consensus"

Probably because they put up the advisory before they got the recon data.

[DESTRUCTION5]

How could they not shift back east wit hall these new model runs?

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid ... ema=PORTAL

NHC is way W of the "consensus"

LOL not sure if your joking or not, but i'm seeing the Hannah Plot on the Ike page. Too far west by those standards for sure!

LOL..click on Storm 09