ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[NDG]

Nice gusty winds over Barbados right now:
Conditions at Jul 16, 2008 - 10:15 AM EDTJul 16, 2008 -
2008.07.16 1415 UTC
Wind from the E (100 degrees) at 38 MPH (33 KT)
Visibility less than 1 mile
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Heavy rain showers
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 73 F (23 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 100%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.97 in. Hg (1015 hPa)
ob TBPB 161415Z 10033KT 1500 +SHRA SCT012CB BKN014 BKN038 23/23

[WmE]

south america bound?..thoughts anyone?

It's already north of Venezuela.

[gatorcane]

That sustained E wind at 38mph reported at Grantely Adams Barbados may be enough for the NHC to upgrade this soon.

[wx247]

I don't see this hitting South America unless it turns SW, which I see no reason for it to do that. Just noticed the pressure on the NRL site is down to 1009 mb, down from 1011 earlier this morning.

[DESTRUCTION5]

That sustained E wind at 38mph reported at Grantely Adams Barbados may be enough for the NHC to upgrade this soon.

Needs to be a W wind..

[Sanibel]

94L's tendency is to look unpromising but then endure and creep up slowly in development. If you extrapolate this it should form. The old rule is, the longer it waits to get strong the further west the peak. Again, I'll be interested in what tonight's nocturnal flaring looks like.

[senorpepr]

I've added a zoomed-in map over the Leeward and Windward Islands displaying surface observations.

[cycloneye]

West Wind in Trinidad! later changed to SW.

10 AM (14) Jul 16 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) SW 6
9 AM (13) Jul 16 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.94 (1014) W 7

[jasons2k]

I think this will be updraded this afternoon based on what I see now.

[HURAKAN]

That sustained E wind at 38mph reported at Grantely Adams Barbados may be enough for the NHC to upgrade this soon.

Needs to be a W wind..

If you look at the map at S2K, the center is below Barbados. It can't measure a West wind.

[drezee]

000
WONT41 KNHC 161445
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1045 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
HAS BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS FORMED. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[gatorcane]

That sustained E wind at 38mph reported at Grantely Adams Barbados may be enough for the NHC to upgrade this soon.

Needs to be a W wind..

DESTRUCTION, NHC just issued a special tropical disturbance statement already. I suspect they are noting these strong winds as part of the reason.

[curtadams]

It's interesting but I don't think it's formed a cyclone. Cyclones forming from the ITCZ normally turn the ITCZ into feeder bands. You can see the feeder banded ITCZ fore and aft; but the band from the west goes into the (weak) cluster of convection in back while the band from the east goes into the strong convection in front. Since the two clusters are well over 100 miles apart, that tells me the MLC low is stretched out over 100 miles E-W. There's certainly not going to be a tight LLC with that going on.

Why, incidentally, has the convection flared so strongly to the front of the wave for the past few days?

[NDG]

YESSSSSSSSSS, I was right!!!!!!!!!!!!

There is a low pressure center, this was not just the typical tropical wave.

[senorpepr]

The question was from someone in Trinidad asking what they would get.

Ahh, I see now. Thanks.

[bvigal]

after pressure reading are Temp, Dewpoint, RD

Code: Select all

Le Raizet   16.27N  61.53W   7/16/2008 14:00   12 kt, ENE (70 degrees)   1015.9 mb   86.0°F   71.6°F   62%   
Canefield Airpor   15.52N  61.38W   7/16/2008 14:00   12 kt, SSE (160 degrees)   1014.9 mb   86.0°F   73.4°F   66%   
Melville Hall Ar   15.52N  61.28W   7/16/2008 14:00   11 kt, E (90 degrees)   1015.9 mb   86.0°F   73.4°F   66%   
Le Lamentin/Mart   14.60N  61.00W   7/16/2008 14:09   16 kt, NE (50 degrees)   1014.9 mb   84.2°F   75.2°F   75%   
Vigie/St Lucia   14.02N  61.00W   7/16/2008 14:00   12 kt, ENE (60 degrees)   1014.9 mb   84.2°F   77.0°F   79%   
Hewanorra Intl   13.75N  60.95W   7/16/2008 14:00   18 kt, ENE (60 degrees)   1014.9 mb   84.2°F   77.0°F   79%   
Arnos Vale/St V   13.13N  61.20W   7/16/2008 13:00   6 kt, Variable   1014.9 mb   78.8°F   75.2°F   89%   Rain Shower
Grantley Adams   13.07N  59.48W   7/16/2008 14:15   33 kt, E (100 degrees)   1014.9 mb   73.4°F   73.4°F   100%   Heavy Rain Shower
Point Salines   12.00N  61.78W   7/16/2008 14:00   2 kt, Variable   1014.9 mb   82.4°F   78.8°F   89%   
Crown Pt/Scarbor   11.15N  60.85W   7/16/2008 14:00   Calm   1014.9 mb   82.4°F   71.6°F   70%   
Piarco Int Airpt   10.58N  61.35W   7/16/2008 14:00   5 kt, SW (220 degrees)   1013.9 mb   86.0°F   75.2°F   70%   


I should have ID'd these airport names, I'm sorry!
These are all the airports doing hrly reporting from Guadeloupe in north to south, see Barbados? It's called Grantley Adams. 33kt sustained winds in heavy showers.

Le Raizet - Guadeloupe
Canefield Airport - Dominica
Melville Hall - Dominica
Le Lamentin - Martinique
Vigie/St Lucia
Hewanorra Intl - St. Lucia
Arnos Vale - St. Vincent
Grantley Adams - Barbados
Point Salines - Grenada
Crown Pt/Scarborough - Trinidad
Piarco Int Airpt - Trinidad

[DESTRUCTION5]

That sustained E wind at 38mph reported at Grantely Adams Barbados may be enough for the NHC to upgrade this soon.

Needs to be a W wind..

DESTRUCTION, NHC just issued a special tropical disturbance statement already. I suspect they are noting these strong winds as part of the reason.

Well im just saying upgrading ona East wind would be crazy based on the fact that that probably happens daily in the Islands..LOL

[Cryomaniac]

So, it now becomes a question of what recon will find, TD3 or Cristobal...

[DESTRUCTION5]

So, it now becomes a question of what recon will find, TD3 or Cristobal...

Or A open Wave..

[Derek Ortt]

if there is a closed circulation... it likely will be Cristobal