ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[americanrebel]

Recon will find a TS with 65 MPH winds and a pressure around 998.5 mb. This is just my humble opinion.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, it looks like the NHC went with the 11z fix and reduced Edouard's winds to 40 knots. However, their end game is the same and they are still predicting a 60 knot landfall...

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS AT 11Z...AND THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED
45 KT WINDS AT 850 MB OUTBOUND FROM THAT FIX. IT HAS BEEN AT LEAST
12 HOURS SINCE THE AIRCRAFT FOUND WINDS TO SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 45 KT...AND SO THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40
KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS...HOWEVER...
INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD HAS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
CONVECTION...ALBEIT POORLY ORGANIZED...IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE
NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN SUGGESTING THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFDL MODEL IN CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH
AT LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE.
BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND PAST FORECAST ERROR
CHARACTERISTICS...THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EDOUARD
WILL BE A HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/7...AND THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
AREA OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 28.2N 90.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 28.4N 92.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 29.1N 94.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 29.7N 96.5W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 06/1200Z 30.5N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[hurricanefloyd5]

I will say im half right and half wrong it is getting better organized and the winds did drop to 45mph so let's call it a draw!!!!!!!!LOL

[Frank2]

The very high temps forecast for LA and TX would only lower the dew point, so, that would cause more dry air to be entrained into Ed...

[Chacor]

Estimates are just that though to be fair they can be wrong Chacor. I think recon may find a slightly stronger storm then when they left though I'm not all that impressed at present by it, though pressure may drop down a touch depending of course on what it does in the next 2-3hrs.

Stormcenter, possibly its hard to say, we really do need recon though now!

Uhm, only the minimum central pressure there is considered estimated. Not the winds. That's the official forecast/advisory. Hardly "estimated".

[Stormcenter]

I would say 50/50 chance he is a hurricane at landfall.
He just has way too much warm water yet to go over.


By the way I'm not one to argue with the NHC but that wnw motion has already started. IMO

[Steve]

FrankP,

I'll challenge you on this one. I'm so sure that Edouard will be stronger than it is now at landfall, that whichever of us is wrong agrees to not post on the next CONUS threat. You in?

Steve

[KWT]

Yeah thats true Chacor my bad but those came from recon reports that are now a good 3-4hrs old, I'm willing to bet that if recon was in there now it'd find 45kts again but alas thats all hyperthetical I suppose!

Also it is interesting to note the NHC also stating this is looking better convective-wise even if its still not really organised.

[Category 5]

Recon will find a TS with 65 MPH winds and a pressure around 998.5 mb. This is just my humble opinion.

Do you have any data to support a 20mph jump?

[Derek Ortt]

The very high temps forecast for LA and TX would only lower the dew point, so, that would cause more dry air to be entrained into Ed...

it would lower the RH

it would not lower the dewpoint or the specific humidity

[Bailey1777]

Looks to be several convective burst expanding, maybe Ed will get full coverage out of this.

[hurricanefloyd5]

wow the wind feild shrunk big time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[KWT]

Posssibly Bailey1777 as convection has been expanding slowly but surely across the center all day. The thing to note though is that the convection isn't really uniform or organised its just lots of storms popping up, not really a CDO that would allow for faster strengthening to occur.

[Ed Mahmoud]

NHC specialist Franklin's estimation of about a 20% chance of a hurricane at landfall seems pretty reasonable, and a good justification to hold off on a warning until recon data suggests that 20% chance is in error as too low.

[Bailey1777]

I know they have been popping sporadically but these look like they are all expanding and will merge possibly over ED.

[Bailey1777]

Good reading on Ed in the tropical analysis threads.

[Chacor]

wow the wind feild shrunk big time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

TS-force winds:
22z yesterday: 30 nm SE
03z today: 20 nm NE 30 nm SE
09z today: 30 nm NE 30 nm SE
15z (11 am): 30 nm NE

It hasn't really shrunk all that much, I think.

[Stormcenter]

Looking at the latest IR loop one thing to note is that the storm is growing size and there
is a lot of new convection starting up everywhere. I know it doesn't look impressive now but it is getting it's act together.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[hurricanefloyd5]

wow the wind feild shrunk big time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

TS-force winds:
22z yesterday: 30 nm SE
03z today: 20 nm NE 30 nm SE
09z today: 30 nm NE 30 nm SE
15z (11 am): 30 nm NE

It hasn't really shrunk all that much, I think.

I meant in size even though it still 35 miles from the center there.there might not me as much but a small strip possible.right?????

[KWT]

It has decreased a fair amount on the SE side though I note, probably in response to the weaken this morning, may have expanded again by the time recon goes back in there who knows!

Ed Mahmoud, I belive the 20% estimate is from thier model guidence thingy that estimate statisitical possiblity of reaching a certain strength, in steady systems these are very good but if it does decide to go on a quick burst they may get caught out, I believe the odds on Dolly reaching cat-2 was also around 20% according to that when it was a high end TS.