Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[canetracker]

Here we go....
00z GFS at 00 hr
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_000l.gif
18hr

18hr 500mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_018l.gif
36hr

36hr 500mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_036l.gif

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... d=92&size=

[canetracker]

48hr

500 mb still shows a nice ridge on top of a week system
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_048l.gif
60hr

500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_060l.gif
Same intensity from 12z run but moving a tad faster
72hr

500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_072l.gif

[canetracker]

84hr

Falls apart earlier than 12z run. Fell apart at 96 hr on 12z. Seem the GFS is seeing shearing that will affect the system.

[Extremeweatherguy]

canetracker - The system doesn't fall apart any earlier than on the 12z run. Take a look for yourself and compare...

12z run for Thursday AM = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif
00z run for Thursday AM = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

When looking at the models, it is important to keep in mind that 96 hours on the 12z run is equal to 84 hours on the 00z run. They both depict the same moment in time (12z Thursday morning).

[canetracker]

canetracker - The system doesn't fall apart any earlier than on the 12z run. Take a look for yourself and compare...

12z run for Thursday AM = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif
00z run for Thursday AM = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

When looking at the models, it is important to keep in mind that 96 hours on the 12z run is equal to 84 hours on the 00z run. They both depict the same moment in time (12z Thursday morning).

You are correct and I am seeing double I am so tired. Just had to stay up and see the outcome.

[Blown Away]

GFS has been pretty good, so maybe we should consider the possibility 92L will fizzle at some point. My gut's telling me different.

[boca]

114 hrs still heading WNW north of DR.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114m.gif

[canetracker]

Is this some possible regeneration?

850mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_85v_126l.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 00z GFS has the 850mb vorticity of this system located in the southern Bahamas by very early (around midnight) Saturday morning...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_126l.gif

[Ivanhater]

GFS still holding on at 126, though it goes over the mountains of east Cuba...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_126m.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

I didn't think this invest was the one to watch, thought it was the rest of the wagon train.

[canetracker]

138 hr

144 hr

156 hr south of Florida around the keys

[Extremeweatherguy]

At 6 days out, the center is shown to be over Cuba: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_144l.gif

But 500mb steering seems to suggest that a northward turn is on the way. There is a strong trough sitting over the central U.S. extending well into the GOM: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif

By early Sunday AM, the center seems to be strengthening south of FL: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_156l.gif

Trough starts to push east, suggesting the more northward turn is probably imminent: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156l.gif

Hmm. May be it will not try and turn north that soon. By Late on Sunday, the model shows the system just off the NW tip of Cuba: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_156l.gif

500mb flow still shows the trough though, so I doubt this will continue too far westward: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif

[canetracker]

850mb view at 156 hr

[boca]

At 156 approaching SE Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156m.gif

[GeneratorPower]

Could easily shoot through the Florida Straits if the GFS is close to right.

[canetracker]

Could easily shoot through the Florida Straits if the GFS is close to right.

Could be that it will do that, Sleepiness is gone and I am awake now.

[canetracker]

168hr
850mb level @ 168 hr

Things are getting interesting!!!
500mb level:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_168l.gif

[GeneratorPower]

The one thing that is apparent is that we can't *rule out* a hit on South FL and then on into the Gulf of Mexico. Most of the waves we've investigated this year could have these possibilities reasonably ruled out.

*Could be* a major problem for someone close to home, to say nothing about the islands.