ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[93superstorm]

Wow srry, I meant fay. Just came back and have no idea how I typed felix

[HURAKAN]

Fay 2, no thanks!

[HurricaneBelle]

Wow srry, I meant fay. Just came back and have no idea how I typed felix

Well, Fay has had what seems to be nine lives, just like a cat, and then there's Felix The Cat, so I can see how that might have happened.

[Ola]

Yesterday? http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_94.gif

The one you made reference to was:

1833 UTC WED AUG 20 2008

INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 43.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT

that is different from the link you provided now

Sorry for the misunderstanding but this was only a quote from another author. My point was that in the models of TODAY there was more consensus.

I should have said it more clear.

NP! Didnt mean it ina bad way. Just got confused when I saw the model coords.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 220038
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0038 UTC FRI AUG 22 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080822 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080822 0000 080822 1200 080823 0000 080823 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 50.1W 13.3N 53.0W 14.6N 56.1W 15.9N 59.5W
BAMD 12.2N 50.1W 12.9N 52.4W 13.8N 55.0W 14.6N 57.8W
BAMM 12.2N 50.1W 12.9N 52.6W 13.7N 55.2W 14.6N 58.2W
LBAR 12.2N 50.1W 12.9N 52.9W 13.8N 56.0W 15.0N 59.5W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080824 0000 080825 0000 080826 0000 080827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 62.6W 19.2N 68.9W 21.5N 72.7W 23.4N 75.1W
BAMD 15.5N 60.8W 17.6N 66.2W 20.0N 69.7W 21.1N 72.1W
BAMM 15.7N 61.2W 17.8N 66.6W 20.0N 70.5W 21.4N 73.0W
LBAR 16.4N 62.7W 19.7N 68.3W 23.7N 70.8W 25.6N 70.7W
SHIP 57KTS 77KTS 88KTS 92KTS
DSHP 57KTS 77KTS 81KTS 85KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 50.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 47.2W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 44.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[ConvergenceZone]

Yikes Cyclone, those model plots you just posted are not good...I mean, not good in the sense that may allow it to strengthen more due to less land interaction, but it is good for the islands, give them a breather, and it looks to be making a beeline for Florida/SouthEast Coast......It will be interesting to see what type of fluctuations we see in the models over the upcoming days.

[jaxfladude]

Fay please tell you BFF Invest94L that you recommend a FISH cruise.

[SouthFloridawx]

The euro is a piece of junk when it comes to forecasting hurricanes.

Didn't do too bad with Fay south of Florida.

[SouthFLTropics]

Anybody got the 0z run of the GFS handy for 94L?

[LaBreeze]

I have family headed to the Bahamas on Sunday for the week. Anyone see 94L as being a big threat to the Bahamas?

[Wx_Warrior]

It's just coming out...here is 108 hrs...

[bahamaswx]

I have family headed to the Bahamas on Sunday for the week. Anyone see 94L as being a big threat to the Bahamas?

Not if it's gotta run over Hispaniola to get here. We missed out on the rain from Fay and could really use this, but it looks like it'll be a caribbean tracker... that is if it even develops at all.

[LaBreeze]

Thanks for the reply - you're right, we need to wait and see if it even develops.

[fasterdisaster]

Well looks like this has potential (though I feel better being in the bullseye this far out) to be a BIG one for Miami.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well looks like this has potential (though I feel better being in the bullseye this far out) to be a BIG one for Miami.

Dont feel too comfortable...guidance is tightly clustered, and amazingly, they all take the the path with the least amount of land interaction possible....right in between PR and DR

[Scorpion]

[Scorpion]

UKMET

[Meso]

Here is the extended long range CMC 00z Run.





Major Hurricane with a minimum pressure of 945, which then continues NW and makes landfall along the east coast near North Carolina

[Meso]

Fish? (Well depending how strong it is before hitting the D.R)

[Wx_Warrior]

GOOD!