ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[ColdFusion]

Sorry Bones....ITS ALIVE!!!!

[Brent]

WHOA... this thing got very impressive quickly. That's what I get for sleeping.

[txwatcher91]

IMO not too impressive, just deep convection. I see now signs of a LLC or MLC at all and convection should weaken later this afternoon, especially when it starts encountering shear tonight.

[jon_m]

The center should clip Grenada to the north later today. It's kind of obvious this will end the speculation.

Grenada is a little far out of the way to be clipped by the centre - at least today.

[fci]

This is the kind of system that is fun to follow through S2K.

Proclamations of "its dead Jim", "STDS", People crowing that they are right, all of the action that The Tropics can give his this time of year.
Yipee!!!

I'm still in the Wxman and Derek camp that this will be a strong Wave and not much more....

[Ivanhater]

IMO not too impressive, just deep convection. I see now signs of a LLC or MLC at all and convection should weaken later this afternoon, especially when it starts encountering shear tonight.

There are signs of a possible LLC..there are inflow bands feeding in under the convection..

[PTrackerLA]

Curious as to where the NHC would go with their track if they close this system off? In my opinion chances are 50/50, we shall see.

[bradp]

This is the kind of system that is fun to follow through S2K.

Proclamations of "its dead Jim", "STDS", People crowing that they are right, all of the action that The Tropics can give his this time of year.
Yipee!!!

I'm still in the Wxman and Derek camp that this will be a strong Wave and not much more....

Wxman was for this wave before he was against but I agree as a longtime lurker he is a terrific forecaster.

[cycloneye]

Lets move on!.

[bradp]

Although no one can really truly predict ye wild and furious seas. They betwixt and befuddle us yes; like so the most complex of riddles.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Although no one can really truly predict ye wild and furious seas. They betwixt and befuddle us yes; like so the most complex of riddles.

Looks like you will be headed back to Lurker Status real quick..

[bvigal]

Someone start a poll thread for the "it will!" "it won't", "it is!" "it isn't!" "I was right" "you were wrong" bunch to place their bets and slug it out so we can post INFORMATION here.

[Squarethecircle]

I'll put in my two cents. Right now, I think it would be defined as a "vigorous tropical wave". As to what it will do, well, I don't think it's got much of a window of opportunity, but I'm guaranteed incorrect at actually forecasting a storm, so I'll say stick with the people who know what they are doing (hint: Pro mets).

[dixiebreeze]

Here we go:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM

16/1145 UTC 13.0N 56.1W T2.5/2.5 94L

16/1145 UTC 36.7N 61.3W T3.0/3.5 BERTHA

16/1145 UTC 27.8N 83.4W TOO WEAK INVEST

[AnnularCane]

I'm just waiting for the recon to tell me what the heck is going on. I wouldn't be surprised to see this become a weak depression at least, or close to it.

[Ivanhater]

I dont see shear being that bad in the Eastern Caribbean..only shear I can see is north of the system and in the western Caribbean moving in tandem with 94L...

[mikef55]

yea looks like it so isnt too bad right now

[Thunder44]

Pressure dropped to 2mb to 1013mb in Barbados in the past hour:

TBPB 161600Z 06010KT 3500 RA SCT012CB BKN014 BKN038 25/25 Q1013

Grenada just dropped 1mb to 1014mb

TGPY 161600Z VRB02KT 9999 SCT018 BKN280 29/25 Q1014

[gatorcane]

Curious as to where the NHC would go with their track if they close this system off? In my opinion chances are 50/50, we shall see.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I took at look at the GFS ensemble to help figure this question out. It would depend on how strong 94L gets but what looks like will happen is that Bertha will create a general weakness in the Western Atlantic but since 94L is shallow should flow with the easterlies. A Bermuda High ridge then quickly replaces Bertha's weakness. Some GOM-FL ridging also builds in once the GOM invest pulls out the the NE. These synoptics indicate a cone would generally point W for the 1-2 day timeframe then a small bend towards the WNW with not much strengthening of 94L...possibly a Tropical storm for this period.

Beyond 5 days at about 144 hours the GFS progs the Bermuda High to slowly shift eastward. That could allow the cone to bend a bit more WNW to NW at the end of the forecast period but the initial NHC cone would probably not show much of any "bend" to the NW at all. It's too early to tell at this point and there is no need to show such a bend at this time due to uncertainty.

[cheezyWXguy]

I dont see shear being that bad in the Eastern Caribbean..only shear I can see is north of the system and in the western Caribbean moving in tandem with 94L...

Well I am seeing so affects of shear on the system, luckily for it though, I see convection nw of the center actually being blown into it. Currently most convection is being blown southeast, but continues to persist. Conditions ahead are likely not very favorable, probably slightly worse than what it is going through now. So in the next couple of days, everyone is likely to give up on it again. However, with improving conditions in the west caribbean, it will likely develop there, if not now. This is just my take on the system...some feedback would be appreciated.