ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Vortex]

18Z Nogaps shifts further S and west with landfall now across s/central fl.
18Z Ukmet continues sw towards the central cuba coast.

Can I see the NOGAPS please? Do you have a link?

nogaps 18Z:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008083118

[smithtim]

Do you know how strong UKMET is predicting she will be though?

It looks like in the 990 mb colour on the last run... but I wouldn't put to much into it untill you get a good clean run with Gustav out of the picture; maybe the mon AM or Tues PM run

[jlauderdal]

18Z Nogaps shifts further S and west with landfall now across s/central fl.
18Z Ukmet continues sw towards the central cuba coast.

Can I see the NOGAPS please? Do you have a link?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[jlauderdal]

18Z Nogaps shifts further S and west with landfall now across s/central fl.
18Z Ukmet continues sw towards the central cuba coast.

Can I see the NOGAPS please? Do you have a link?

nogaps 18Z:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008083118

looks like a double landfall for florida, if that verified that would be 6 landfalls for florida

[Evil Jeremy]

18Z Nogaps shifts further S and west with landfall now across s/central fl.
18Z Ukmet continues sw towards the central cuba coast.

Can I see the NOGAPS please? Do you have a link?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

For some reason, that website does not carry the 06z and the 18z runs of the NOGAPS. Nevertheless, a big westward trend going on these last few runs, and now we have the NOGAPS and the UKMET on board for a South/Central Florida landfall, although the NOGAPS is not the best model lol.

[jlauderdal]

Do you know how strong UKMET is predicting she will be though?

It looks like in the 990 mb colour on the last run... but I wouldn't put to much into it untill you get a good clean run with Gustav out of the picture; maybe the mon AM or Tues PM run

mon am or tues pm, that's a rather large time period which is it...

[cpdaman]

when does recon go back in?

[ronjon]

Here is the link on the 18Z NOGAPs. Models showing westward shift today - need to closely monitor the trends the next few days - most models showing intensification over the Bahamas in the next 48-72 hrs. We may be on pins and needles in FL right after Gus does his damage. What a season....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_namer&prod=sfc10m&dtg=2008083118

[tolakram]

0000Z
Riding on the tropic of cancer...

[Jinkers]

Here is the link on the 18Z NOGAPs. Models showing westward shift today - need to closely monitor the trends the next few days - most models showing intensification over the Bahamas in the next 48-72 hrs. We may be on pins and needles in FL right after Gus does his damage. What a season....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_namer&prod=sfc10m&dtg=2008083118

I really thought this was headed for the carolinas

[Blown Away]

Out of that big giant mess of convection Hanna has managed to build a nice ball of convection on the S side and looks better tonight. I wonder if that center will reform a little SW.

[Blown Away]

Here is the link on the 18Z NOGAPs. Models showing westward shift today - need to closely monitor the trends the next few days - most models showing intensification over the Bahamas in the next 48-72 hrs. We may be on pins and needles in FL right after Gus does his damage. What a season....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_namer&prod=sfc10m&dtg=2008083118

I really thought this was headed for the carolinas

IMO, SFL or N.C. IMO, no matter what the models say now N FL, Georgia, S.C is a very very low probability.

[skufful]

Here is the link on the 18Z NOGAPs. Models showing westward shift today - need to closely monitor the trends the next few days - most models showing intensification over the Bahamas in the next 48-72 hrs. We may be on pins and needles in FL right after Gus does his damage. What a season....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_namer&prod=sfc10m&dtg=2008083118

I really thought this was headed for the carolinas

That's according to the NHC, according to folks in FL, it's coming their way, and I hope (wish) they are correct. I don't want it to come my way, maybe out to sea would be best.

[stormchazer]

Here is the link on the 18Z NOGAPs. Models showing westward shift today - need to closely monitor the trends the next few days - most models showing intensification over the Bahamas in the next 48-72 hrs. We may be on pins and needles in FL right after Gus does his damage. What a season....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_namer&prod=sfc10m&dtg=2008083118

I really thought this was headed for the carolinas

It mays still! The Globals GFS, HRWF, GFDL all point GA, SC, NC.

[cpdaman]

i wonder what kind of conditions are poster in the turks and caicos is seeing now?

looks like a blow up of convection over him.

loop looks hmmmmmmm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

with gustav intensifying tonite nobody is watching hanna montana (it seems) hopefully she behaves herself..........unexpectedly good upper level conditions in this neck of the woods ...would be very concerning fast.......esp for bahamas

[Vortex]

Much better organixation this evening. Especially the last 2-3 hours. Deep convection has formed right over the LLC. Many models have indicated this exact scenario.

[cpdaman]

Much better organixation this evening. Especially the last 2-3 hours. Deep convection has formed right over the LLC. Many models have indicated this exact scenario.

ya but when is the earliest any of these models take her to hurricane force......?

also nhc has center at 23.5 that is on northern edge of convection. i hope the llc is not in that ball of convection , but it looked like it (llc) sunk more south, but nhc said nope. loops are hard to find the center, i wonder what they are using to interpret her location.

[ronjon]

Here is the link on the 18Z NOGAPs. Models showing westward shift today - need to closely monitor the trends the next few days - most models showing intensification over the Bahamas in the next 48-72 hrs. We may be on pins and needles in FL right after Gus does his damage. What a season....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_namer&prod=sfc10m&dtg=2008083118

I really thought this was headed for the carolinas

That's according to the NHC, according to folks in FL, it's coming their way, and I hope (wish) they are correct. I don't want it to come my way, maybe out to sea would be best.

Ah, a -removed- accusation - I'm shocked (no I'm not since this regional stuff goes on all the time on this board) but really no I just call him the way I see em. The NHC in their 5 PM discussion laid out the uncertainty in the forecast track whether Hanna will go north up the coast or west toward FL and then north. Most models (even the GFDL) have trended more west today - just an observation. I think its still likely for Hanna to move north along the Atlantic coast (more likely according to climo) but since this storm is progged to blow up in the Bahamas and travel very close to FL we need to watch it here.

[captain east]

Out of that big giant mess of convection Hanna has managed to build a nice ball of convection on the S side and looks better tonight. I wonder if that center will reform a little SW.

Ya I noticed that too, I think it will start the rebuilding process tonight and then might start getting more powerful tomorrow ( If it convection keeps doing it's part ).

[stormchazer]

Much better organixation this evening. Especially the last 2-3 hours. Deep convection has formed right over the LLC. Many models have indicated this exact scenario.

ya but when is the earliest any of these models take her to hurricane force......?

also nhc has center at 23.5 that is on northern edge of convection. i hope the llc is not in that ball of convection , but it looked like it (llc) sunk more south, but nhc said nope. loops are hard to find the center, i wonder what they are using to interpret her location.

This is what is disconcerting about tracking sheared storms close to the CONSUS. The LLC tends to jump around with convection being displaced and the models have trouble getting consistent runs. These storms that are resiliant also have a habit of biting in the end. I think that the turn NW appears sound though historic tracks give no credence either way.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200808_climo.html#a_topad