ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[storms in NC]

I don't think Ukmet has done the best this year with the storms. It seem to be the GFDL that has been doing the best over all so far. But that is like who you ask. every one would say not this one does better not it is this one. But all in the end it come down who was right the Gfdl or the others. I would put my money on the GFDL.JMO

Now OT on home make over tonight they are in N.O. that is weird With Gus coming in as I type.

[cycloneye]

The Best Track at 00:00 UTC for Hanna has no change in the winds intensity.

AL, 08, 2008090100, , BEST, 0, 237N, 719W, 40, 997, TS,

[captain east]

UKMET was the model that just changed the forecast cone because it was right about a more westernly track before turning north...

[jlauderdal]

Here is the link on the 18Z NOGAPs. Models showing westward shift today - need to closely monitor the trends the next few days - most models showing intensification over the Bahamas in the next 48-72 hrs. We may be on pins and needles in FL right after Gus does his damage. What a season....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_namer&prod=sfc10m&dtg=2008083118

I really thought this was headed for the carolinas

That's according to the NHC, according to folks in FL, it's coming their way, and I hope (wish) they are correct. I don't want it to come my way, maybe out to sea would be best.

thats us, i have been getting pm's all day from florida residents saying gustuv is making a hard right to tampa

[cpdaman]

what is that best track seeing , there is no spin up at 23.7 , Am i going mad

it looks obvious spin is just barely tucked under the northern edge of convection now around 23.3 or so. look http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

we need recon

guys when is next plane going in?

[Blown Away]

what is that best track seeing , there is no spin up at 23.7 , Am i going mad

it looks obvious spin is just barely tucked under the northern edge of convection now around 23.3 or so. look http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html

we need recon

guys when is next plane going in?

I think that is about right (23.7N/71.9), LLC is on the N side of convection. It's building deep convection very fast. Seems to be gaining longitude a little faster than the NHC track.

[masaji79]

Where exactly is the ULL in relation to Hanna? I don't believe that I see it spinning on any satellite loops.

[Vortex]

Hanna continues to organize at a fast clip this evening..Next recon should be interesting and would not be surprised to see Hurricane Hanna sometime tommorrow.

[CourierPR]

Is Hanna becoming better organized?

[storms in NC]

Where exactly is the ULL in relation to Hanna? I don't believe that I see it spinning on any satellite loops.

It is to the southeast of Hanna.
I just seen how she was building up. In the WILM NWC said if she makes it past 72 hours. No one else had said that not even NHC. that I know of. But she build herself next to the ULL so she has to have a lot in her to do so and has lasted this long with the ULL. now that the ULL is moving out of the oic. this should help her. I seen her go north a tap a wobble. With thoes # it is going WNW. Will It is going to be a long day Monday. So Later all. Over to Gus for a while.

[AJC3]

Is Hanna becoming better organized?

Yes, to some degree. Convection is consolidating into what appears to be a sheared CDO type pattern.

[caneman]

AJC3,

what is your best guess to where LLC is? DOes it look like it has had a West or WSW motion for the last several hours?

[AJC3]

Where exactly is the ULL in relation to Hanna? I don't believe that I see it spinning on any satellite loops.

There really doesn't appear to be much to it anymore. It doesn't show up very well on either WV imagery or the upper streamline analyses. Right now, the shear is more of function of the flow on the back side of the upper anticyclone (high) associated with Gustav.

[masaji79]

With Hanna building in such a hostile environment this evening, makes me worry about the next few days. Should be interesting what will happen to her as she pulls away from the ULL and Gustav heads inland. I'm tired and we're only halfway through the season

[bahamaswx]

Indeed. She's finally trying to consolidate convection over the center.

[AJC3]

AJC3,

what is your best guess to where LLC is? DOes it look like it has had a West or WSW motion for the last several hours?

I can't tell for sure, even with IR2 imagery...we need Christopher Walken to crack the whip. However, based on what I see, and the 8PM NHC position of 23.5N 71.6W, it's still pretty close to the north edge of the ball of convection.

As I've said before many times on here, TC's will 'try' to maintain or acquire a coherent vertical structure, which means the LLC will often times try to 'tuck in' beneath the deeper convection downshear.

[tgenius]

So would it be safe to say regardless of a direct landfall in SFL or not that the conditions will be a bit crummy Thur/Fri? Quite possible that SFL would be under Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings no?

[captain east]

Indeed. She's finally trying to consolidate convection over the center.

Where is the center though???

[storms in NC]

take a look at this. No reason Why she couldn't become a BIG HurricaneJMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

[bahamaswx]

Indeed. She's finally trying to consolidate convection over the center.

Where is the center though???

Pretty hard to pinpoint it on sat. imagery, but continuity would put it just to the north of the recent blowup, consistent with the shear blowing the convection off to the south.