ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[RL3AO]

Breaking news: Recon finds a W wind!!!!!

Um...269 at 1kt. Not impressed.

[Ivanhater]

1-knot west wind found.

Ill take it!

[KWT]

As it happens there isn't a huge amount of shear to its west right now, its still fairly marginal but its not nearly as high as 30-40kts further north which the recon plane may wlel have flown through.

[Brent]

1-knot west wind found.

Oh WOW... Watch out islands!

[Just Joshing You]

omg category 6 west wind found barbadoes is obliterated

[RL3AO]

Is this the first time all three colors have been used at the same time?

[NDG]

Here's a surface map with a satellite overlay from my workstation. Note the WSW sea breeze in Trinidad. There are outflow boundaries west of Barbados from the collapse of thunderstorms near the wave axis in the past few hours. I can't find any LLC in the obs or on satellite, but I don't doubt that there's an area of light/variable winds along the wave axis south of 12N.

I believe you are way off, center has been found near 59W!!!!!!

[DESTRUCTION5]

1-knot west wind found.

Oh WOW... Watch out islands!

Someone down there must have farted...

[KWT]

Well I'm not sure about that west wind NDG, it was flagged so it may be suspect, I think another pass through will resolve that issue.

[Bertha08]

So guys, even if this did develop wouldn't it likely head into Mexico or central america?

[RL3AO]

So guys, even if this did develop wouldn't it likely head into Mexico or central america?

As the great philosopher Kevin Garnett said, "anything is possible".

[Bertha08]

Well most of the models are hinting towards, that but I guess it's still to far off?

[NDG]

Plenty of evidence of a light W & WSW winds found, considering how fast this is moving, it is a closed circulation.

[wxman57]

Here's a surface map with a satellite overlay from my workstation. Note the WSW sea breeze in Trinidad. There are outflow boundaries west of Barbados from the collapse of thunderstorms near the wave axis in the past few hours. I can't find any LLC in the obs or on satellite, but I don't doubt that there's an area of light/variable winds along the wave axis south of 12N.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/94LObs.gif

I believe you are way off, center has been found near 59W!!!!!!

If you mean the crosshair, that was an earlier NHC estimated position. I didn't mean to imply anything by it. Just forgot to move it.

[RL3AO]

Well most of the models are hinting towards, that but I guess it's still to far off?

The steering flow would suggest that an open wave (which is most likely will be) would go into Central America.

[gatorcane]

Well most of the models are hinting towards, that but I guess it's still to far off?

The steering flow would suggest that an open wave (which is most likely will be) would go into Central America.

of course, 99% of tropical waves moving through the caribbean move east to west. It's if 94L can deepen into something significant than things get more interesting down the road especially if it goes west or makes that turn to the N. GFS at day 5 is currently progging a trough to move through the Great Lakes weakening and pushing the Western Atlantic ridge eastward. That could allow a turn to the North in the long-run but lots of IFs before we get that far. Much too early to say for sure...stay tuned.

[Thunder44]

Pressure down to 1010mb at Barbados at 2pm. Still reporting a NNE wind:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

[KWT]

The biggest IF of course is that it forms at all, I think though if it does form Gatorcane its likely going to remain with the way shear is progged to be, does seem to be progged to remain pretty high in the Caribbean, as wxman57 said 30-40kts is being progged which is killer shear really IF that occurs.

[wxman57]

Plenty of evidence of a light W & WSW winds found, considering how fast this is moving, it is a closed circulation.

I would argue that if the plane had flown through 94L between Sunday night and yesterday morning it would have found a well-defined LLC. Just light and variable winds along the wave axis now, though.

[KWT]

Looks like we may have our next tropical cyclone, I also guess that we may have a tropical storm already given the sorts of estiamtes we've seen recently....mind you I do hear that the west winds are flagged...we will see!