ATL: Tropical Depression Edouard

[KWT]

Yep it doesn't look bad but we need to see it hold this presentation and get some more convection before it really strengthen any, recon has found a slightly lower pressure bt winds are no higher then before...yet...

just found 56 KNOT winds....

Also found in heavy rainfall in a storm, therefore won't represent the systems true strength and thus is not going to be used in all probablity. Its not marked suspect but its rain contimaniated return if that makes sense

[green eyed girl]

Got the photo in. So within the past 4 minutes, here's a shot from central Lafourche Parish (between Lockport and Valentine, LA) looking southerly toward south Terrebonne Parish which would be roughly South of where it was taken. Thanks to Everett. :9:

Tell Everett Ms. Rhonda said hi and nice picture!

[RL3AO]

Dropsonde in wind band.

Surface 1002mb, no winds available
100mb, height 14m, winds 39kts.

[drezee]

17:11:30Z 28.02N 91.10W 845.6 mb
(~ 24.97 inHg) 1,511 meters
(~ 4,957 feet) 1007.7 mb
(~ 29.76 inHg) - From 315° at 26 knots
(From the NW at ~ 29.9 mph) 14.2°C
(~ 57.6°F) 14.2°C
(~ 57.6°F) 30 knots
(~ 34.5 mph) 56 knots
(~ 64.4 mph) 22 mm/hr Heavy Band
(~ 0.87 in/hr) 48.5 knots (~ 55.8 mph) Potential estimate if used
Tropical Storm 186.7%

[Cape Verde]

Is Edouard projected to pick up forward motion? Everyone seems to be saying tomorrow morning Galveston, but at the rate it's going, it would be late afternoon at the earliest, right?

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

Firstly, this has been a very well behaved TC, and it is following the center of the NHC's cone quite nicely. Over the past 24 hours (and now), the center has been moving due west, and the trend is continuing as I anticipated per latest radar data. On another note, there are several reasons why I have been personally stating that people have been slightly too aggressive on a Cat 1 landfall over the past few days. Undoubtedly, Edouard is currently intensifying, but there are several hurdles that may prevent the TC from exceeding 55-60 kt prior to landfall.

Firstly, as I mentioned, mid level dry air and subsidence (partially resulting via advection from the departing upper low) to the west of Edouard and over Texas is clearly a negative factor. Note that convective thunderstorms have been absent on the western semicircle, and latest visible imagery indicates the tops of the thunderstorms over the center are "flattening out". Typically, in a case of intensification within a similar set-up, one would anticipate overshooting tops and the formation of a CDO (Central Dense Overcast). Humberto and others are classical examples. However, they did not deal with as much subsidence and ML dry air that would have been entrained by the convection. In this case, the ML dry air and subsidence is entraining into the thunderstorms and is transported to the boundary layer, which stabilizes it. Note that this explains the "flattening" of the new convection's tops, in addition to some lingering (but decreasing) UL shear.

Here is an excellent loop. Note the arc cloud boundary extending NW from the SW semicircle. This clearly denotes the stable air mass and subsidence to the west, which is clearly affecting the development of an inner core.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

In addition, here is the recent (12Z) SW Louisiana SKEW-T from Lake Charles. Note that moisture sharply decreases at the mid levels, indicating the presence of mid level dry air.

http://weather.cod.edu/wx/public/raob/lchskewt.GIF

Soundings are extremely useful for sampling the surrounding thermodynamic environment.

Overall, I expect that Edouard will continue to intensify, but it will not exceed strong TS status. My forecast remains on track with a landfall 55-60 kt (65-70 mph) Edouard in the immediate vicinity of Galveston, Texas.

[Derek Ortt]

so far, recon found a 35-40KT tropical storm with only a slightly lower pressure than this morning

[KWT]

MiamiensisWx, yep you can still see the mid level dry air coming into the system from the NW/W. However the other interesting is finally the center is being corvered by some convection even if its weak and this may help to mix out the dry air thats in the system at the present moment maybe helping to slightly increase the rate of strengthening.

I still think it may have a chance of being a hurricane but as time goes by the chances are slowly decreasing.

Derek, yep NHC will hold at 40kts unless it gains more strength in the next 3hrs whilst recon is in there which I suppose possible.

[Normandy]

The ship observation of 50 mph earlier is data enough to raise the intensity, as it indicates that somewhere this storm is producing 50 mph.

[HurricaneBelle]

Thanks Derek for all your input...My brother is a pro met here in Beaumont and doesn't come on here much but you guys have a thankless job.

OT: Got some great nicknames. We need to chose one:
A) Lil Eddie
B) Mr. Ed
C) Ed Mahmoud
D) Eddie Munster
E) Eddie Haskell
F) Eddie Vedder

Given the strange nature and non-traditional genesis of this storm, we could call it Ed Weird.

[dwg71]

40Kts would still be most accurate. No rapid intensification at this point. Dry air will be its biggest culprit. IMO 50Kts is as high as he will get.

[kurtpage]

000
URNT12 KNHC 041732 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052008
A. 04/17:06:20Z
B. 28 deg 16 min N
090 deg 55 min W
C. 850 mb 1440 m
D. 41 kt
E. 037 deg 053 nm
F. 114 deg 046 kt
G. 031 deg 031 nm
H. 1001 mb
I. 18 C/ 1556 m
J. 20 C/ 1512 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0305A EDOUARD1 OB 02 CCA
MAX FL WIND 46 KT NE QUAD 16:56:50 Z

[southerngale]

Let's keep the chatroom chatter in the chatroom, please. People are popping in from work, using free moments to try and learn something and get a quick update... and are mining through page after page of chatter just trying to get to some relevant information. Non-relevant post are being deleted. I realize they're fun and harmless, but this is not the thread for that. Thanks.

[sphelps8681]

Did I just hear TWC correctly. TX/LA landfall.

[KWT]

dwg71, a ship report reported 50mph earlier which would support 45kts, the NHC may hold 40kts though because flight level winds aren't all that high.

[Thunder44]

dwg71, a ship report reported 50mph earlier which would support 45kts, the NHC may hold 40kts though because flight level winds aren't all that high.

The ship report might be suspect too.

[Frank2]

Just noticed something that might be of use - apparently, the NW jog some of us have noticed seems to be Ed interacting with a weak ULL that is dropping to it's southwest over the past few hours:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html

something to note...

[Wx_Warrior]

I've watched a little TWC last night and this morning and IMHO, I thought there were pretty awful on Eddie. It was like, 'grab your garden hose' from Corpus to mid - Louisiana coast, get ready for a tropical and now back to "Escape from Ice Mountain".

I haven't seen Cantore.

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

Firstly, this has been a very well behaved TC, and it is following the center of the NHC's cone quite nicely. Over the past 24 hours (and now), the center has been moving due west, and the trend is continuing as I anticipated per latest radar data. On another note, there are several reasons why I have been personally stating that people have been slightly too aggressive on a Cat 1 landfall over the past few days. Undoubtedly, Edouard is currently intensifying, but there are several hurdles that may prevent the TC from exceeding 55-60 kt prior to landfall.

Firstly, as I mentioned, mid level dry air and subsidence (partially resulting via advection from the departing upper low) to the west of Edouard and over Texas is clearly a negative factor. Note that convective thunderstorms have been absent on the western semicircle, and latest visible imagery indicates the tops of the thunderstorms over the center are "flattening out". Typically, in a case of intensification within a similar set-up, one would anticipate overshooting tops and the formation of a CDO (Central Dense Overcast). Humberto and others are classical examples. However, they did not deal with as much subsidence and ML dry air that would have been entrained by the convection. In this case, the ML dry air and subsidence is entraining into the thunderstorms and is transported to the boundary layer, which stabilizes it. Note that this explains the "flattening" of the new convection's tops, in addition to some lingering (but decreasing) UL shear.

Here is an excellent loop. Note the arc cloud boundary extending NW from the SW semicircle. This clearly denotes the stable air mass and subsidence to the west, which is clearly affecting the development of an inner core.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

In addition, here is the recent (12Z) SW Louisiana SKEW-T from Lake Charles. Note that moisture sharply decreases at the mid levels, indicating the presence of mid level dry air.

http://weather.cod.edu/wx/public/raob/lchskewt.GIF

Soundings are extremely useful for sampling the surrounding thermodynamic environment.

Overall, I expect that Edouard will continue to intensify, but it will not exceed strong TS status. My forecast remains on track with a landfall 55-60 kt (65-70 mph) Edouard in the immediate vicinity of Galveston, Texas.

Streamline analysis supports this possible landfall vicinity as well. Since we are within ~24-36 hours of a landfall, it may be wise to pinpoint more specific regions that will be impacted. The strength of the ridging from H5-H85 appears to support a general W path, with a slight WNW bend into Galveston's vicinity, followed by a path over the Houston metropolitan area. However, all portions of the upper Texas coast and extreme SW Louisiana should continue to monitor Edouard.

700-850 mb:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

500-850 mb:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

[hurrican19]

Wow, no posts in 10 minutes? Suprising. I read on KHOU's Weather Board that some gas stations in the Beaumont/Port Arthur area are running out of fuel at this time, not good!